Mallow Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 it can be like that here near Lake Superior as you gain elevation in the hills. A 5 - 10 minute drive you can go from rain to snow in no time. It is incredible. I didn't realize how much of a ridge there is right up against Lake Superior there. Kind of cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I didn't realize how much of a ridge there is right up against Lake Superior there. Kind of cool! There is about an 800' difference and it has a huge impact on snowfall. Easily this year a 30" difference in accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 So I'm worried. The models seem to be "settling" on a solution I've been worried about since last night. It wasn't shown at that time, but Arctic outbreaks tend to play this little game out here and I could see the writing on the wall already. The initial pre-"Arctic-front" cold is modified and far less impressive (850s of -6 to -7 instead of -9)... and anything in Portland before Thursday night could potentially be rain or a rain/snow mix at the lowest elevations. Then there's barely any moisture left as we get a cold east wind out of the Gorge (instead of a blast from the north). 850s on the GFS ensemble mean for Portland now only drop to -12C for Portland... recall just two days ago they were showing as low as -15C. What I hate about all this is that instead of snow becoming more and more certain as the models settle on a solution that's clearly snowy, snow is becoming less and less certain as temperatures continue to drift upwards on average with each new model run. That is to say, every new GFS run isn't warmer than the previous, but the average trend is warmer from model run to model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Dare I say it? It looks like all systems are go for snow. Still way too borderline for my comfort levels, but models are all consistent and show snow for sure starting Wednesday night, and possibly sooner. At this time I'd guess 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Dare I say it? It looks like all systems are go for snow. Still way too borderline for my comfort levels, but models are all consistent and show snow for sure starting Wednesday night, and possibly sooner. At this time I'd guess 3-5 inches. I hope it materializes for you. I know all too well about boundary layer problems. Just one of the things you have to deal with living near water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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