Mallow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'll probably be the only one posting in here, but since the weather looks to actually finally get somewhat interesting here over the next couple weeks, I might as well create this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'll peek in and add my (feeble) comments since I'll be in Tahoe the 18tth thru the 25th. I'm glad I can bring the persistant EC trough out with me for a short visit. Powerful dual jet storm Wednesday as the GoA low spills SE into the area. Could see blizzard conditions all the way down to the valley floors with the heavy snow and strong winds. QPF looks to be 1.6" increasing to 3" at the ridges. Cut off low for the weekend, maybe. Another, bigger storm just after the holiday. Hopefully these 2nd and 3rd storms are not too far south for you. Looks plenty cold but I don't know what elevation you are at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Maybe one of you mets could answer this. Is there a record kept for the longest time there had been an east coast or west coast trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'll peek in and add my (feeble) comments since I'll be in Tahoe the 18tth thru the 25th. I'm glad I can bring the persistant EC trough out with me for a short visit. Powerful dual jet storm Wednesday as the GoA low spills SE into the area. Could see blizzard conditions all the way down to the valley floors with the heavy snow and strong winds. QPF looks to be 1.6" increasing to 3" at the ridges. Cut off low for the weekend, maybe. Another, bigger storm just after the holiday. Hopefully these 2nd and 3rd storms are not too far south for you. Looks plenty cold but I don't know what elevation you are at. I'm near sea level (~200' elevation). Unfortunately, with onshore flow, we need 850s generally at or below -6C for snow to the valley floors. Snow levels generally remain around 500'-1,500' in patterns like the midweek pattern coming up, with perhaps heavier showers dumping snow briefly down to the surface (which melts quickly). The storms later on could be better, though, if we can get offshore gradients. The Seattle area looks to do decent, though, as onshore flow there won't be as prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'll peek in and add my (feeble) comments since I'll be in Tahoe the 18tth thru the 25th. I'm glad I can bring the persistant EC trough out with me for a short visit. Powerful dual jet storm Wednesday as the GoA low spills SE into the area. Could see blizzard conditions all the way down to the valley floors with the heavy snow and strong winds. QPF looks to be 1.6" increasing to 3" at the ridges. Cut off low for the weekend, maybe. Another, bigger storm just after the holiday. Hopefully these 2nd and 3rd storms are not too far south for you. Looks plenty cold but I don't know what elevation you are at. Heading to Parlk City the 22nd -27th and I am looking for some disco for the Wasatch and this is about as close as I can find. It's sure looks promising for all of the western ski resorts for the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Heading to Parlk City the 22nd -27th and I am looking for some disco for the Wasatch and this is about as close as I can find. It's sure looks promising for all of the western ski resorts for the forseeable future. Ya, though the further east you go, the less promising it is. Still, I think the Wasatch should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Ya, though the further east you go, the less promising it is. Still, I think the Wasatch should do well. Sierras and Ruby Mtns in Nevada look to be the big winners in this pattern. GFS has been trying to develop an unusual low in Southern California towards Day 8/9 as that trough begins to break down...never seen a low pressure placement like that before. I wonder if it will evolve into an El Niño-like Four Corners system or whether the energy stays consolidated as more of a North Pacific low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 After this morning's little surprise snowfall, I now have three traces for the winter. Still, I got to enjoy driving in the snow on Mount Scott (>1"), and playing in the snow in Happy Valley (1/4-1/2") this morning. http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=FaRftQIdGoux-CnlAjmfenWVVDFtTmx_YBk25Q%3BFe-EtQIdiySy-CkV8S6TyZ-VVDFKBDM5jiAMlA&q=se+fuller+and+se+causey+to+se+idleman+and+se+tyler&aq=&sll=45.450166,-122.543349&sspn=0.02258,0.038581&ie=UTF8&ll=45.44845,-122.551031&spn=0.045161,0.077162&t=p&z=14&saddr=se+fuller+and+se+causey&daddr=se+idleman+and+se+tyler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 After this morning's little surprise snowfall, I now have three traces for the winter. Still, I got to enjoy driving in the snow on Mount Scott (>1"), and playing in the snow in Happy Valley (1/4-1/2") this morning. http://maps.google.c...an+and+se+tyler I know another met from Milwaukie area. He used to work at Meridian Environmental when I first started--but he moved back home. He is a killer forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 I know another met from Milwaukie area. He used to work at Meridian Environmental when I first started--but he moved back home. He is a killer forecaster. I know one named "Ron" who posts at another weather forum and lives in Milwaukie. I haven't met him in person, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 As a former westerner I take an interest in that region- long range models really give the NW a super cold airmass with thicknesses below 516 in SEA and below 522 in SFO by the mid-to late week period, many coastal sections could see snow in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 As a former westerner I take an interest in that region- long range models really give the NW a super cold airmass with thicknesses below 516 in SEA and below 522 in SFO by the mid-to late week period, many coastal sections could see snow in this setup. Ya, but so far this winter, everything has changed once it's gotten within day 5. Late November was the only exception... but the agreement on this one looks about as good as the Late November deal, so maybe, just maybe. Still, the Late November pattern, while cold, couldn't manage more than a trace of snow for me (lots of precip until the cold arrived, then almost nothing). Hopefully the same doesn't happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean was pretty epic, with the MEAN showing 850s down to -13C in Portland, -15C in Seattle. 18z ensemble mean wasn't quite as epic, but still cold, with -11C in Portland, -13C in Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Alright, the 00z euro is pretty much as epic as it gets. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z GFS is awesome. Hopefully the 00z Euro is better than the 12z Euro. That wasn't a bad run, but not nearly as awesome as the previous run (or the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Maybe one of you mets could answer this. Is there a record kept for the longest time there had been an east coast or west coast trough? difficult to answer. I don't think there is an exact definition of what defines a trough. The range of answers could be quite large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z models are still good. But there's still enough spread in the models for me to be nervous, and it wouldn't take TOO much of a change (cold stalls further and further north each run) to ruin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z models are still good. But there's still enough spread in the models for me to be nervous, and it wouldn't take TOO much of a change (cold stalls further and further north each run) to ruin it. Rooting for you big time... But, You should move to, Milwaukee in winter, your talent on this board is so wasted in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Rooting for you big time... But, You should move to, Milwaukee in winter, your talent on this board is so wasted in winter. He just needs to move up 1000-1500 feet in elevation and he'd be looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Rooting for you big time... But, You should move to, Milwaukee in winter, your talent on this board is so wasted in winter. Thanks! He just needs to move up 1000-1500 feet in elevation and he'd be looking good. Ya, that would definitely do the trick! This is where I'd probably move if I could: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=e+larch+mountain+rd+and+se+red+elder+dr&aq=&sll=45.518256,-122.151833&sspn=0.027905,0.077162&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=E+Larch+Mountain+Rd+%26+SE+Red+Elder+Dr,+Corbett,+Multnomah,+Oregon+97019&t=p&ll=45.522947,-122.165222&spn=0.055805,0.154324&z=13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks! Ya, that would definitely do the trick! This is where I'd probably move if I could: http://maps.google.c...5,0.154324&z=13 I know the intermountain W so well--but I feel lost in Oregon and Washington. You should definitely post over in the plains more--and I will post more in your Pac NW region. I can guarantee I would look like the bigger fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 He just needs to move up 1000-1500 feet in elevation and he'd be looking good. No doubt.. I don't know how he does it yr after yr out there where he picks to reside. Makes it all that more special during the good times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 I know the intermountain W so well--but I feel lost in Oregon and Washington. You should definitely post over in the plains more--and I will post more in your Pac NW region. I can guarantee I would look like the bigger fool. Psshhh. You could do it... it just takes some practice. And it's not like I've had much experience with forecasting for the plains. The most I've done was forecasting for Fargo and Oklahoma City during a school forecast contest at the UW. No doubt.. I don't know how he does it yr after yr out there where he picks to reside. Makes it all that more special during the good times though. That it does. December 2008 was wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ya, that would definitely do the trick! This is where I'd probably move if I could: http://maps.google.c...5,0.154324&z=13 Its amazing what just 1000 feet can do int he PAC NW...2000 feet is like snow heaven. Its almost exponential out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its amazing what just 1000 feet can do int he PAC NW...2000 feet is like snow heaven. Its almost exponential out there. Ya. I have driven up a 1,000' hill about 10 minutes from my house several times this winter. Amazing to watch the transition from rain, to rain/snow, to snow in just a short drive. The road climbs from below 400' to above 800' in a 2 minute drive (1 mile). Those two minutes make a huge difference. http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=FS6FtQId7r-x-CkjdZ1n2Z-VVDHkn_6WKK8LVw%3BFbB2tQIdtAqy-Cmz-FLNzZ-VVDG5wqBajYcOkg&q=se+92nd+and+idleman+to+se+walnut+and+idleman&aq=&sll=45.449624,-122.553949&sspn=0.013969,0.038581&ie=UTF8&ll=45.448661,-122.559099&spn=0.01397,0.038581&t=p&z=15&saddr=se+92nd+and+idleman&daddr=se+walnut+and+idleman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 153 hour GFS sounding temps: for Seattle Station: KSEA Latitude: 47.45 Longitude: -122.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1015 100 -4.6 -12.3 55 7.7 -6.7 360 7 267.4 267.6 265.6 271.4 1.46 1 1000 216 -7.1 -13.4 61 6.3 -8.7 2 11 266.0 266.3 264.4 269.8 1.35 2 950 613 -10.9 -14.9 72 4.0 -11.8 6 11 266.2 266.4 264.4 269.7 1.27 3 850 1457 -16.3 -20.9 67 4.6 -17.1 40 6 269.1 269.2 265.7 271.5 0.85 4 800 1911 -18.4 -24.3 60 5.9 -19.4 15 9 271.5 271.6 267.0 273.4 0.67 5 750 2390 -20.7 -29.4 45 8.7 -21.8 6 13 274.1 274.2 268.3 275.4 0.44 6 700 2897 -23.7 -35.5 33 11.8 -24.9 5 16 276.3 276.3 269.4 277.1 0.26 7 650 3434 -27.1 -41.2 25 14.1 -28.2 8 18 278.3 278.3 270.4 278.8 0.16 8 600 4007 -30.3 -46.9 18 16.6 -31.3 11 24 281.0 281.0 271.9 281.3 0.09 9 550 4622 -33.6 -51.6 15 18.0 -34.4 13 32 284.2 284.2 273.7 284.4 0.06 10 500 5285 -37.2 -55.4 13 18.2 -37.8 14 41 287.7 287.7 275.6 287.9 0.04 11 450 6006 -41.1 -58.9 13 17.9 -41.6 14 51 291.6 291.6 277.5 291.7 0.03 12 400 6800 -44.9 -61.3 14 16.4 -45.3 12 58 296.6 296.6 279.8 296.7 0.02 13 300 8698 -50.4 -64.4 18 14.0 -50.7 7 71 314.3 314.3 286.9 314.4 0.02 14 250 9881 -52.2 -66.2 17 14.0 -52.5 5 69 328.5 328.5 291.3 328.6 0.02 15 200 11320 -53.4 -69.1 13 15.8 -53.7 2 60 348.3 348.3 296.3 348.3 0.02 16 150 13176 -51.5 -78.0 3 26.5 -52.1 356 40 381.3 381.3 302.5 381.3 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If the models verify, this will be a very interesting winter for the PNW, in that it began witrh a record-breaking Arctic outbreak in November and will end with one in late February. Talk about bookends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean 850s at hr 144: PDX... -16C SEA... -18C Pretty incredible. Unfortunately, even though the operational euro is on its own, the solution it shows worries me. That kind of solution is much more common (cold getting hung up further north), and while even the Euro shows cold/snow, it's not nearly to the extent that the other models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ya. I have driven up a 1,000' hill about 10 minutes from my house several times this winter. Amazing to watch the transition from rain, to rain/snow, to snow in just a short drive. The road climbs from below 400' to above 800' in a 2 minute drive (1 mile). Those two minutes make a huge difference. http://maps.google.c...nut+and+idleman it can be like that here near Lake Superior as you gain elevation in the hills. A 5 - 10 minute drive you can go from rain to snow in no time. It is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 00z GFS is still epic. If the 00z Euro finally gets on board, I'll be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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