00z Euro 2/14/11

[earthlight]

Absolutely shocked there have been no posts on this...it has snow from 156-204 hours with two separate overrunning events. It's light to moderate snow..both are cold enough throughout the NYC area. One might argue the first is semi-borderline but H85 temperatures are cold. Surface looks to be 32-34 degrees.

[earthlight]

They are both weak surface low's that slide off the M/A coast. First one goes off the coast Sunday afternoon..second one Monday night.

[nzucker]

Absolutely shocked there have been no posts on this...it has snow from 156-204 hours with two separate overrunning events. It's light to moderate snow..both are cold enough throughout the NYC area. One might argue the first is semi-borderline but H85 temperatures are cold. Surface looks to be 32-34 degrees.

I just saw this in the SNE thread, don't have access to the Euro paid maps. Apparently, it ejects the SW trough in three separate pieces, so we get a couple different overrunning events instead of one low winding up well west of us, which was the GFS interpretation of the breakdown of that trough. Also, the Euro shows 300m+ anomalies over Greenland, brings back the big NAO blocking.

[earthlight]

I just saw this in the SNE thread, don't have access to the Euro paid maps. Apparently, it ejects the SW trough in three separate pieces, so we get a couple different overrunning events instead of one low winding up well west of us, which was the GFS interpretation of the breakdown of that trough. Also, the Euro shows 300m+ anomalies over Greenland, brings back the big NAO blocking.

Yes that would be correct. The surface reflection is weak but there's only a brief break between the two systems..it's a pretty cool depiction. Would definitely be a moderate event with .5-.75" QPF for everybody. For instance..it's .40"+ with the first event at KEWR through 00z Monday..and there's some more stuff coming w/ the second event after.

[A-L-E-X]

I just saw this in the SNE thread, don't have access to the Euro paid maps. Apparently, it ejects the SW trough in three separate pieces, so we get a couple different overrunning events instead of one low winding up well west of us, which was the GFS interpretation of the breakdown of that trough. Also, the Euro shows 300m+ anomalies over Greenland, brings back the big NAO blocking.

Wow, so the Euro is going over to the GFS idea of a sustained block building? Looks like it's changed its tune from last night!

Let's get the late night crew back!

[A-L-E-X]

Looks like the Euro has changed its tune from when the weeklies showed no blocking. I like that its the Euro showing it, instead of the GFS with its usual biases. It might be the first sign that we go back to a December style extreme block again for early March.

[nzucker]

Yes that would be correct. The surface reflection is weak but there's only a brief break between the two systems..it's a pretty cool depiction. Would definitely be a moderate event with .5-.75" QPF for everybody. For instance..it's .40"+ with the first event at KEWR through 00z Monday..and there's some more stuff coming w/ the second event after.

That would be an amazingly quick way to replenish the snowpack, put down another 6-10" after the torch.

The 0z ECM suggests a cutter at Day 10 with the mean trough still in the West, but we have a big EPO block with +4C 850s near the Alaskan Coast. We'd probably see an arctic shot to end February and then the trough axis moving east given the NAO blocking that's depicted in the long range. Could be another wintry stretch in late February and early March if this run of the Euro is correct. We've definitely seen a trend towards a faster cold front this weekend, a potential for overrunning snows next week, and then a better NAO/EPO in the long range. It's still a gradient pattern with the trough in the West and weak ridging ahead of it, but one that might benefit NYC metro.

[A-L-E-X]

That would be an amazingly quick way to replenish the snowpack, put down another 6-10" after the torch.

The 0z ECM suggests a cutter at Day 10 with the mean trough still in the West, but we have a big EPO block with +4C 850s near the Alaskan Coast. We'd probably see an arctic shot to end February and then the trough axis moving east given the NAO blocking that's depicted in the long range. Could be another wintry stretch in late February and early March if this run of the Euro is correct. We've definitely seen a trend towards a faster cold front this weekend, a potential for overrunning snows next week, and then a better NAO/EPO in the long range. It's still a gradient pattern with the trough in the West and weak ridging ahead of it, but one that might benefit NYC metro.

Hopefully that gradient sets up just south of our region so we can be on the cold side of it.

[nzucker]

Hopefully that gradient sets up just south of our region so we can be on the cold side of it.

Yes, one thing to watch is how strong the frontal passage is after the torch. GFS has 850s around -12C while the ECM doesn't cool us down nearly that much, and that will make a big difference if we get a snow event Sunday night, both in terms of where the gradient sets up and how quickly the snow accumulates with the ground having warmed up from the mild days.

The long range looks pretty nice with the monster -EPO and -NAO coming back...we just need the trough to shift east but it might happen given the cutter being progged and the analogs suggesting an eastern trough by 3/1.

[earthlight]

[jconsor]

Just remember that models tend to bring in blocking too quickly. I think the ECMWF has the right idea with blocking but is likely too aggressive with the retrogression and development of the blocking over Greenland.

Also, not sure the system will be as suppressed as the ECMWF indicates. Its bias of keeping systems in the western US for too long has to be considered. That causes the systems ejecting ENE toward us to flatten out and come out in a few small pieces. It may end up one larger system.

[A-L-E-X]

Just remember that models tend to bring in blocking too quickly. I think the ECMWF has the right idea with blocking but is likely too aggressive with the retrogression and development of the blocking over Greenland.

Also, not sure the system will be as suppressed as the ECMWF indicates. Its bias of keeping systems in the western US for too long has to be considered. That causes the systems ejecting ENE toward us to flatten out and come out in a few small pieces. It may end up one larger system.

I agree that models tend to flip patterns too quickly, but all signs do seem to point to a major pattern flip back to what it was like before in time for March. Let's hope it produces.

[nzucker]

I agree that models tend to flip patterns too quickly, but all signs do seem to point to a major pattern flip back to what it was like before in time for March. Let's hope it produces.

If we could get the two overrunning events on the 0z ECM and then a coastal in early March, we'd have a nice snowpack. Of course, it wouldn't last nearly as long with the stronger sun angle, but it would still be a nice way to end the winter.

[A-L-E-X]

If we could get the two overrunning events on the 0z ECM and then a coastal in early March, we'd have a nice snowpack. Of course, it wouldn't last nearly as long with the stronger sun angle, but it would still be a nice way to end the winter.

I'd like for us to have a prolonged wintry period for March and even early April Do you think we might get into what we had back in 1996 when we had prolonged cold and wintry threats?

[nzucker]

I'd like for us to have a prolonged wintry period for March and even early April Do you think we might get into what we had back in 1996 when we had prolonged cold and wintry threats?

It's certainly possible; La Niñas are infamous for chilly springs, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of them. I'm really liking the 2/20-3/10 period for wintry threats, with the first two storms being of the overrunning or SW flow type given the -PNA/-EPO pattern. Given the analogs suggest the trough shifting into the East very late in February into early March, as well as the Euro showing the cutter reestablishing a bigger trough in the East by 2/24, we might see a chance for a coastal later on. The 0z ECM shows the PV sitting over Siberia but a bit of cross-polar flow leading into Central Canada and the High Plains, so we might get one more good arctic shot while it's still possible in late February. I definitely think people are going to be surprised at how quickly the pattern turns from 60F temperatures to wintry again...we could be well into the 60s on Friday and then have snow falling on Sunday evening with temps dropping into the 20s. We don't have the sub-tropical jet activity of late winter 1996, but we could see lots of Colorado Lows and such with confluence over SE Canada as seems to be the pattern with a -NAO.

Both the GFS ENS and Euro show a -NAO/-EPO at Day 10 but the SE ridge is still a problem:

[A-L-E-X]

The temps dropping at the same time as the snow, that sounds pretty good, because it means the cold air would be timed just right with the precip.

[SnowGoose69]

As jconsor said, these systems tend to go too far north for NYC...you need a very rare setup for these to stay south where either high is coming across Quebec at the right time, the PV in Canada is massive, or the system is very very weak or basically just a wave at 500mb like 2/8/94 or 12/28/90...the two events in February 1994 are largely blips on the radar but both were weak...if you get anything organized in that pattern its going way north 90% of the time....that said I'd be very surprised if the 95-96 record for NYC does not fall eventually in the next 6-8 weeks...this pattern change to me is occurring soon enough that we'll probably see 2 more storms and I believe one will probably drop double digit totals...if I had to guess they will probably get to 77-78 inches...the record will probably fall by a nose.

[A-L-E-X]

As jconsor said, these systems tend to go too far north for NYC...you need a very rare setup for these to stay south where either high is coming across Quebec at the right time, the PV in Canada is massive, or the system is very very weak or basically just a wave at 500mb like 2/8/94 or 12/28/90...the two events in February 1994 are largely blips on the radar but both were weak...if you get anything organized in that pattern its going way north 90% of the time....that said I'd be very surprised if the 95-96 record for NYC does not fall eventually in the next 6-8 weeks...this pattern change to me is occurring soon enough that we'll probably see 2 more storms and I believe one will probably drop double digit totals...if I had to guess they will probably get to 77-78 inches...the record will probably fall by a nose.

What happened on 12/28/90 SG? I dont remember it.

[SnowGoose69]

What happened on 12/28/90 SG? I dont remember it.

Major overrunning from a weak shortwave at 500mb...snow started 8-9pm and was over or changed to FZDZ by 6am and around 6-7 inches fell most areas...the forecast was only 1-3 or 2-4...I know advisories were out...the snow was quite heavy from 11pm-3am, probably 3-4 inches fell in that span....while the forecast for total amounts busted low the event was very well forecast by the models with most of the media outlets and NWS predicting it from 4-5 days out. I remember Lloyd Lindsay Young on the 23rd when he did his 5 day forecast during the then live screen audience broadcast 12pm news on WWOR putting the snow magnet up on the board and everyone in the audience cheering.

http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us1228.php

[A-L-E-X]

Major overrunning from a weak shortwave at 500mb...snow started 8-9pm and was over or changed to FZDZ by 6am and around 6-7 inches fell most areas...the forecast was only 1-3 or 2-4...I know advisories were out...the snow was quite heavy from 11pm-3am, probably 3-4 inches fell in that span....while the forecast for total amounts busted low the event was very well forecast by the models with most of the media outlets and NWS predicting it from 4-5 days out. I remember Lloyd Lindsay Young on the 23rd when he did his 5 day forecast during the then live screen audience broadcast 12pm news on WWOR putting the snow magnet up on the board and everyone in the audience cheering.

http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us1228.php

ahhhh those were the days! Young's Helloooooooooooo and cheery demeanor really came through-- as a matter of fact his personality came through in 3D well before there was 3D television!

[Alpha5]

Just took a look...was too busy worrying about the "torch"

Anyways, some decent potential here, the PV is solidified up north over the HB while a SE ridge is trying to establish itself. The storms are quick and light as of right now, but its the best snow threat we have seen in a while.

[TheTrials]

Looks like I will have to put away the fishing rod and suntan lotion, LOL. The word on the street that winter was over was silly. It was amazing we didn't have a thaw before this week and even this week looks pretty quick.

[A-L-E-X]

I see this and then I read AMPSU's post in the main forum talking about a pattern change being 15-25 days away which would actually take us to the second week of March on the pessimistic side. Do we have two different camps for when it might end?

[jconsor]

Read his post carefully - he's only talking about a cold spell induced by the MJO. He's not saying there won't be cold before that.

I would add, however, at this point I see seasonable to slightly below normal temps next week (with perhaps a brief period of above normal if we get a Lakes cutter). The pattern doesn't look to support any bitter cold. However, that is definitely a big change from this week.

I see this and then I read AMPSU's post in the main forum talking about a pattern change being 15-25 days away which would actually take us to the second week of March on the pessimistic side. Do we have two different camps for when it might end?

[chazman]

.....as a matter of fact his personality came through in 3D well before there was 3D television!

Science!!

[A-L-E-X]

Read his post carefully - he's only talking about a cold spell induced by the MJO. He's not saying there won't be cold before that.

I would add, however, at this point I see seasonable to slightly below normal temps next week (with perhaps a brief period of above normal if we get a Lakes cutter). The pattern doesn't look to support any bitter cold. However, that is definitely a big change from this week.

I read that to mean the cold before that would only be transitory (he also had something in there about the weak -NAO not being of help south of New England before Mid March.) I'm wondering if the slightly below normal temps or transitory nature of the cold would be enough for those 1 or 2 winter storms we were talking about. I know you said that the gradient would likely put the cold a bit north of here, but perhaps the following week it could be different. Early March looks like a more full circle switch of the pattern.

[Ababa]

12z gfs on the other hand shows a nice hit for green bay wi at 192 hours

[ag3]

Euro already lost both these threats, it appears, looking at ewall maps.

Looks like GFS and GGEM.

[Analog96]

Euro already lost both these threats, it appears, looking at ewall maps.

Looks like GFS and GGEM.

The GFS really has been superior to the Euro this year.

[Sey-Mour Snow]