prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 International Falls cutter with event 2. Brings some juice up towards the end of the run. ggem very close with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro DET: .29 ORD: .57 DBQ: .78 MKE: .67 TOL: .36 YYZ: .05 lol, that's more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 IWX has been riding the fence down here for several days (a very good idea), and downplaying any potential: Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Washington's Birthday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. The long term forecaster mentions that the "00z models came in a little cooler", a nod to the Euro I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well the GFS still won't budge. It has trended cooler for sure both at the surface and aloft but it has been consistent with that northwest track of the long and an extremely moist system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah...GFS has been stuck on all rain here... This one may take a few more days to become clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'll take the NOGAPS LOL!!! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 thunderstorms or cement, not terrible options. I'm leaning boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 really nice pac connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 For here huge spread of outcomes. Canadian would heavy rain. GFS would be heavy rain followed by heavy crap. EURO would be all snow and a decent amount at that. I would enjoy seeing anyone of the solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hey I thought your SN was familiar but I couldn't make the connection between Muskoka and Muskegon. Why'd you make the move? Want to live in every town in North America that starts with Musk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 DVN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE HAS PLUNGED WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z ECM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z ECM HAS COME IN MUCH COLDER WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A MAJOR SNOWSTORM NOW INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE ECM HAS BEEN THE COLDER MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS SEEMS TO BE RADICALLY COLDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR NOW AND SEE IF OTHER MODELS COME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECM. OR WILL THE 12Z ECM GO BACK TO THE WARMER SOLUTION. NCEP DISCUSSIONS SUGGEST BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS COMING OUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER THE COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE MIDWEST FIRST AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. SO THEY FAVOR THE 00Z ECM. BOTTOM LINE...EITHER WE WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...OR WE WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE RIVERS. THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD ALSO FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THE COLDER ECM WOULD SUGGEST THUNDERSNOWS WITH SUCH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. GFS/ECM HINT AT ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 DVN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE HAS PLUNGED WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z ECM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z ECM HAS COME IN MUCH COLDER WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A MAJOR SNOWSTORM NOW INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THE ECM HAS BEEN THE COLDER MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS SEEMS TO BE RADICALLY COLDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR NOW AND SEE IF OTHER MODELS COME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECM. OR WILL THE 12Z ECM GO BACK TO THE WARMER SOLUTION. NCEP DISCUSSIONS SUGGEST BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS COMING OUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER THE COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE MIDWEST FIRST AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. SO THEY FAVOR THE 00Z ECM. BOTTOM LINE...EITHER WE WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...OR WE WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE RIVERS. THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD ALSO FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THE COLDER ECM WOULD SUGGEST THUNDERSNOWS WITH SUCH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. GFS/ECM HINT AT ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEK. You can always count on DVN to feed the weenies. It's always hard going against the euro, but this one still looks like almost entirely rain for N. Illinois to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 And probably our biggest snowstorm this winter You can always count on DVN to feed the weenies. It's always hard going against the euro, but this one still looks like almost entirely rain for N. Illinois to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I got up this morning to check the EURO and expected not to see much with the exception of 50's and maybe 60's with rain next week. Well.... It has an icing threat again for early next week. I will take that with a grain of salt until I see some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS running sort of slow today for everyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS running sort of slow today for everyone else? Yeap... That was a surprise on the EURO lol I haven't been paying much attention over the past few days because each system looked warm and wet with little snow and severe weather threat. May have to start model watching again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Im stuck at 18hr... ACCU pro is stuck and the mos data isn't updating.. So something is screwed up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeap... That was a surprise on the EURO lol I haven't been paying much attention over the past few days because each system looked warm and wet with little snow and severe weather threat. May have to start model watching again.. Yeah will be interesting if the 12z run holds to the icy idea. All I could find: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1548Z WED FEB 16 2011 THE 12Z NAM COMPLETED ON TIME. THE GFS HAS NOT BEGAN AND WILL BE LATE. IT WILL BEGIN WITH 32 CANADIAN...14 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN STATIONS AVBL FOR INGEST. THERE WERE ALSO 24 DROPSONDES RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE C-130 AIRCRAFT BASED OUT OF ANCHORAGE AK AND THE NOAA G-IV BASED OUT OF JAPAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Not sure if anyone cares about what JB has to say but this was found on his twitter page. Early week storm will be farther south over the east than US models. Forecasts in east should trend colder and snowier with that. I-80 follies: DSM 60s tomorrow, snow Sun night into Mon. NYC 60s Friday, snow Mon night into Tue. Aforementioned storm will be worse in the plains and lower lakes than when it gets to the east, but still shows where this pattern is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Not sure if anyone cares about what JB has to say but this was found on his twitter page. Early week storm will be farther south over the east than US models. Forecasts in east should trend colder and snowier with that. I-80 follies: DSM 60s tomorrow, snow Sun night into Mon. NYC 60s Friday, snow Mon night into Tue. Aforementioned storm will be worse in the plains and lower lakes than when it gets to the east, but still shows where this pattern is going. And this from his blog: Where it will be a nasty storm in Nebraska into the western Great Lakes, where winter is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 And this from his blog: Where it will be a nasty storm in Nebraska into the western Great Lakes, where winter is far from over Cool. I guess its ok to resume construction on the JB bomb shelter. JB's had a really, really rough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 while waiting on the GFS here's the 12Z GGEM 120-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Cool. I guess its ok to resume construction on the JB bomb shelter. JB's had a really, really rough winter. His checking account doesn't believe so and thats what really matters. He's had his good moments and bad moments. I still think he's better than anyone else at accuwx. Southern minneosta gets destroyed on the GGEM. Looks like the further east you are, the less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GEM is definitely farther south and colder this morning, not nearly as far as the Euro but in that direction. Now if we can just get the GFS to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That's a canadian snowbomb for southern minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 His checking account doesn't believe so and thats what really matters. He's had his good moments and bad moments. I still think he's better than anyone else at accuwx. Southern minneosta gets destroyed on the GGEM. Looks like the further east you are, the less snow. Getting surpressed as it heads east. This keeps it from being a cutter and more of a west to east storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 while waiting on the GFS here's the 12Z GGEM 120-144 wow big step south from its previous runs. any chance you could throw up the 850 temp maps and a total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 wow big step south from its previous runs. any chance you could throw up the 850 temp maps and a total qpf? hmmm, still looks sketchy here but my confidence in an all rain scenario is shrinking. You have to imagine we start seeing increasing agreement before too long here. Going to be some real cement for who ever stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Sort of surprised to see the trends on the latest runs...could LAF be back in the game for something wintry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 hmmm, still looks sketchy here but my confidence in an all rain scenario is shrinking. You have to imagine we start seeing increasing agreement before too long here. Going to be some real cement for who ever stays all snow. not saying JB is god but with his comments and the GEM shifting south I'm a bit more optimistic here for seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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