Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Here is the soundings for MKE and FDL: FDL: (QPF, 850, 2M temp) HR 102: 0.02, -4, 29 HR 105: 0.06, -3, 29 HR 108: 0.02, -2, 30 HR 120: 0.02, -1, 31 HR 123: 0.05, -2, 32 HR 126: 0.14, -1, 32 HR 129: 0.35, 0, 31 HR 132: 0.29, 1, 32 HR 135: 0.21, 2, 32 HR 138: 0.18, 3, 32 HR 141: 0.06, 0, 31 I'm guessing when the 850 gets to 0 or above it would be liquid precip? 2M temps never get above 32, so I'm guessing it would freeze? Am I right here? If that's the case it would be: 0.31 QPF snow. 1.09 QPF frozen precip? (Frz Rain, sleet etc) MKE sounding: .15 QPF snow, rest (1.5 QPF rain) I'm new to this stuff, so I think I have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 lol for some reason I thought this thread was at 3 pages when I left for bowling so needless to say when i seen 9 pages I about came in my pants.. Skipped through the gfs real fast and it brings swamp ass air up to chicago and the ggem is deciding if its wants to blow its load in n Iowa or in MN it looks like.. Euro prob. makes it a 3some with those two tonight... I should have stayed out drinking after bowling Guess I could start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the ggem dumps 1.19 all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Here is the soundings for MKE and FDL: FDL: (QPF, 850, 2M temp) HR 102: 0.02, -4, 29 HR 105: 0.06, -3, 29 HR 108: 0.02, -2, 30 HR 120: 0.02, -1, 31 HR 123: 0.05, -2, 32 HR 126: 0.14, -1, 32 HR 129: 0.35, 0, 31 HR 132: 0.29, 1, 32 HR 135: 0.21, 2, 32 HR 138: 0.18, 3, 32 HR 141: 0.06, 0, 31 I'm guessing when the 850 gets to 0 or above it would be liquid precip? 2M temps never get above 32, so I'm guessing it would freeze? Am I right here? If that's the case it would be: 0.31 QPF snow. 1.09 QPF frozen precip? (Frz Rain, sleet etc) MKE sounding: .15 QPF snow, rest (1.5 QPF rain) I'm new to this stuff, so I think I have the right idea. Sounds about right. Looks like you're teetering right on the edge there. You should be glad the GFS will be proven wrong by the Euro (I expect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 lol for some reason I thought this thread was at 3 pages when I left for bowling so needless to say when i seen 9 pages I about came in my pants.. Skipped through the gfs real fast and it brings swamp ass air up to chicago and the ggem is deciding if its wants to blow its load in n Iowa or in MN it looks like.. Euro prob. makes it a 3some with those two tonight... I should have stayed out drinking after bowling Guess I could start now. Through my (admittedly limited compared to most here) knowledge of the models, I can't help but trust the Euro about 2 or 3 times more than the GFS or any other model. I won't react negatively until or unless I see the Euro take a significant step backward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Through my (admittedly limited compared to most here) knowledge of the models, I can't help but trust the Euro about 2 or 3 times more than the GFS or any other model. I won't react negatively until or unless I see the Euro take a significant step backward. Yeah I'll feel more optimistic like I said after the 12z euro if tonight's euro holds serve. Not to many times the GFS leads the way over the euro for 3 runs in a row so there is still about 40 mins of hope this storm lives another day if we want wintery precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That is what I'm hoping as I know I'm out of wintry precipitation for the time being. Definitely hoping for a better severe season than last which was quietest on record for these parts. But good luck to those up north! big differences between this run and the 12z run. look at difference in the trof out west at D7-D8. this could be the first decent seather wx maker if everything plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Don't really see all that much of a difference in the new 00z guidance compared to this morning's 12z. Still looks like any snow stays pretty far north over Minnesota through the northern half of Wisconsin, and on into Michigan. Since we managed to miss any thunder from the blizzard I hope we can squeak out a few rumblers with this upcoming system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Kinna stuck in no mans land here around ord and mke. We get Columbus warmed tongued big time if this thing gets to far north and west before it goes east.. Toronto does pretty good on the gfs though.. Need some of the goods in ne Canada to back it up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Every run of the GFS for about 10 have been painting ice for Detroit, especially north of the city. Certainly something that I have a concern about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think the main thing I've noticed with the pattern the next 6-10 days is that the baroclinic zone pretty much stays in place. It's pretty potent, but it's really not moving all that much. This keeps the parade of storms progressing over relatively similar tracks. Since the baroclinic zone hangs pretty far to the north compared to late, this generally keeps the best snow chances further north as well. Until we see the baro zone bulge south I really don't see much wintry weather for the central and southern MW for the next 10 days. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 EURO is looking a little different eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z HR 126: 1004 LOW in Extreme N. Texas 12z HR 138: 996 LOW in N. Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 EURO is looking a little different eh? supression, but by how much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z HR 132: 1004 LOW on the OK/KS border. Gonna start cutting me thinks. (ENE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z HR 138: 1004 LOW on the E. KS/W.MO border. Moving ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z HR 144: 1004-1008 LOW in C. MO. MOD-HVY precip in IA/S.MN. LT-MOD precip in WI and N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z HR 150: 1008 LOW in S. IL. LT-MOD precip across most of the region. (N.IL/IA/MN/WI, MI, IN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z HR 150: 1008 LOW in S. IL. LT-MOD precip across most of the region. (N.IL/IA/MN/WI, MI, IN) euro following the 0z nocraps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well not what I expected at all.. lol. Got some cushion to come north now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Total QPF through HR 162. Looks to be all snow in these areas. IA: .75-1.0 QPF S. MN: .5-.75 C. MN: .25-.5 N. MN: .1-.25 C/S. WI: .5-.75 N. IL: .5-.75 NW IL: .75 W. IL: .75-1 SW MI: .5-.75 C/E MI: .25-.5 N. IN: .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Total QPF through HR 162. Looks to be all snow in these areas. IA: .75-1.0 QPF S. MN: .5-.75 C. MN: .25-.5 N. MN: .1-.25 C/S. WI: .5-.75 N. IL: .5-.75 NW IL: .75 W. IL: .75-1 SW MI: .5-.75 C/E MI: .25-.5 N. IN: .25-.5 I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Ends up in VA/WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'll take it Word. Cyclone will just have to play some thunder audio during his 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hey, the good thing is that even with it's suppressed idea, it gives most of us at least 5-6 inches of snow (IA/WI/S. MN. probably end up with 8-10) from this run. It's pretty weak with it as well, never getting below 1004 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Word. Cyclone will just have to play some thunder audio during his 4-8" LMAO! Certainly an interesting twist tonight. Definitely an outlier type solution, but the Euro seems to have dominated lately, so it's not to be taken lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro will continue to show a few solutions until about Thursday-friday. Then I think it will be consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro DET: .29 ORD: .57 DBQ: .78 MKE: .67 TOL: .36 YYZ: .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 LMAO! Certainly an interesting twist tonight. Definitely an outlier type solution, but the Euro seems to have dominated lately, so it's not to be taken lightly. With this thing being so weak I imagine the 2nd low its been showing will deliver the thunder if it don't cut to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 International Falls cutter with event 2. Brings some juice up towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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