Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 As far as the origin of where it comes from and the track, this storm reminds me of december 19th 2008. That storm didn't occlude I dont believe but it was a spread the wealth strom as it tracked accross the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Really dont want to wait 6 days for this potential. One more reason I need to stop looking at the models past 72 hours. Easier said than done. See you at 00z In all seriousness though I agree it would nice that we could fast forward 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 raw data for ORD off the Euro. GFS/Euro holding their ground regarding track with the GEM taking a significant jump north from its 0z run. Euro also showing another big system after this one...988mb sfc low in eastern NE at 228hr. MON 00Z 21-FEB 1.3 -1.4 1015 77 87 0.09 557 545 MON 06Z 21-FEB -0.8 -1.9 1014 81 99 0.16 556 545 MON 12Z 21-FEB -2.8 -3.1 1011 89 98 0.39 553 544 MON 18Z 21-FEB -3.3 -1.2 1004 86 100 0.26 548 545 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -3.7 -5.8 1002 88 86 0.45 537 535 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -5.0 -12.5 1009 82 84 0.15 536 530 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -6.1 -14.4 1020 77 55 0.05 544 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 ECM mean appears to be north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Im very cautious on this system..Way too many issues ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 What a pattern...Im getting ready for many sleepless nights. Back to Back to Back Storms..One of these will produce. BTW... NO SNOW MAPS 100 HOURS OUT PLEASE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 What a pattern...Im getting ready for many sleepless nights. Back to Back to Back Storms..One of these will produce. BTW... NO SNOW MAPS 36 HOURS OUT PLEASE... As long as they follow the models, overall pattern and aren't bias towards ones BY, I could careless. Helps pass the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 As long as they follow the models, overall pattern and aren't bias towards ones BY, I could careless. Helps pass the time. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 As far as the origin of where it comes from and the track, this storm reminds me of december 19th 2008. That storm didn't occlude I dont believe but it was a spread the wealth strom as it tracked accross the country. That storm kicked butt.. Great wind driven event and in fact that was the 1st time I ever saw Thundersnow. Was standing on my porch smoking a cig and the sky lit up and heard the crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Looks like the low is coming ashore further north into Cali at hour 90 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol at the 18z GFS. Basically a 996-1000 mb low near WI/IL border but the cold air is nowhere to be found. Heavy rains across WI/IL etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol at the 18z GFS. Basically a 996-1000 mb low near WI/IL border but the cold air is nowhere to be found. Heavy rains across WI/IL etc. This thing needs a northern stream buddy to phase with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol at the 18z GFS. Basically a 996-1000 mb low near WI/IL border but the cold air is nowhere to be found. Heavy rains across WI/IL etc. ehh...6 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 DVN I'd be happy with either of those lol quite the spread. SUN THROUGH TUE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SRN WI SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THUS HAVE A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC AXIS THAT WOULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SLOWED SOME OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD THAT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR. OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING EVENTUALLY TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER TIME...AS THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE RAIN TO HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD AFFECT RIVER FLOODING...WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION COULD BRING WINTRY MIX OR EVEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Doesn't the gfs tend to have a cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GRR and DTX are noncommittal. 18z still relative warm but would have nearly 1/2 an inch of QPF at YYZ before the freezing line moved through. 12z GFS BUFKIT actually showed much of that being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z Euro would imply a significant ice threat not that far north of here. As I indicated earlier that is what I am concerned about for Michiana and the I-80 corridor east from Chicago. Plus climatologically this is the time for ice storms in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Given the fact that this system lacks significant cold air availability I'm thinking this thing brings mainly rain here. Minnesota through Michigan look in the game though. Even the southerly Euro holds mid level temps way up here. If we're going to be on the warm side of the storm I hope it gets warm enough for some decent thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z Euro would imply a significant ice threat not that far north of here. It would be close.. Very close. As I indicated earlier that is what I am concerned about for Michiana and the I-80 corridor east from Chicago. Plus climatologically this is the time for ice storms in our region. Yeah there would be a decent amount of mixing on this run near/just south of the state line but all frozen though. per euro 2m temps areas along and north of the border ( east of Berrien county ) fall to 20 or colder during the height of the storm. The 32 line makes a attempt to make a run north/ne but gets stopped at i94 in NW IN ( hr 156 ) and never makes it farther east/ne of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Not only does the GFS rain on our parade often, it is more frequently wrong than the Euro. We'll see which model caves first. Even if we get some rain mixing in with the Euro, the amount of QPF should still allow close to a foot of heavy wet snow to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Given the fact that this system lacks significant cold air availability I'm thinking this thing brings mainly rain here. Minnesota through Michigan look in the game though. Even the southerly Euro holds mid level temps way up here. If we're going to be on the warm side of the storm I hope it gets warm enough for some decent thunderstorms. The ECMWF brings 60F+ temps and 55F+ DP's up into C. Illinois, close to PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Thankfully I won't be home to watch the Euro come out live and I'll be tipsy when I do get home.. I have to think if the GFS is locked in the Euro will come on board tonight.. No way the GFS is going to school the euro 3 runs in a row. Later, Peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 ..just looked at the GFS and it would be probably all rain here...looks way too warm for snow. Lot of precip...probably flooding somewhere in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Frank do you buy the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Chi Storm...Nice Avatar. The mixing line looks awfully close to the string of cites.. Gona have to wait and see on what if any blocking we can get to the North to push this slut further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 How could that be? We got just over a foot, so unless the ratios were 20:1, which I doubt they were due to the wind, we had to have received more than .59 QPF. Not only do the ASOS have problems of this sort, Co-op stations have problems with liquid equivalent in events with such high winds because the gauge fails to catch some of the snow that falls. Therefore, liquid equivalent measurements end up lower than they ought to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I wish I could show you guys the hodograph for here off the 12z Euro sounding off Accu pro. It is absolutely insane, for those who can see it, look at it at 150hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Chi Storm...Nice Avatar. The mixing line looks awfully close to the string of cites.. Gona have to wait and see on what if any blocking we can get to the North to push this slut further south. The only redeemable quality of Respiratory Guy was his avatar of that girl with the ass you could bounce a dime off of. That pic trumps Chicago_Storm's and Cyclone's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I wish I could show you guys the hodograph for here off the 12z Euro sounding off Accu pro. It is absolutely insane, for those who can see it, look at it at 150hrs. Hot damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Chi Storm...Nice Avatar. The mixing line looks awfully close to the string of cites.. Gona have to wait and see on what if any blocking we can get to the North to push this slut further south. So for here, Euro is a foot of snow, GFS is 50 and rain. About the usual 5+ day model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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