Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Another day, more solutions, but still not seeing anything that would be favorable for wintry precip around here. Yeah, not happening for LAF. Nice thermal gradient though on the 12z Euro from north to south in Illinois. I'll be up in NE IL for this storm, but on the wrong side of things probably. Ah I can smell the 36º and rain from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12Z Euro DET: 1.03 QPF...all snow YYZ: 0.28 QPF...through 168 ORD: 1.55 QPF Alot of ice and heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12Z Euro DET: 1.03 QPF...all snow YYZ: 0.28 QPF...through 168 ORD: 1.55 QPF Alot of ice and heavy snow Just one run but I was worried this would go too far north but it looks like with the high to the north, I may have to worry about this thing scooting too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12Z Euro DET: 1.03 QPF...all snow YYZ: 0.28 QPF...through 168 ORD: 1.55 QPF Alot of ice and heavy snow Wow, we get that much? Looking at the PSU maps, I would have thought we'd be completely whiffed to the south. Is it possible that amount is contaminated from the late week SHRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow..why such the difference from the GFS??? GFS always seems like the colder model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah, not happening for LAF. Nice thermal gradient though on the 12z Euro from north to south in Illinois. I'll be up in NE IL for this storm, but on the wrong side of things probably. Ah I can smell the 36º and rain from here... Who knows, maybe we can pull off an improbable south trend, but it won't be easy. Best shot would be to eject a small piece like canuck said but do it farther south. I've already written it off so only positive surprises can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow, we get that much? Looking at the PSU maps, I would have thought we'd be completely whiffed to the south. Is it possible that amount is contaminated from the late week SHRA? Nope. That's all the 21-22nd storm from the looks of the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Who knows, maybe we can pull off an improbable south trend, but it won't be easy. Best shot would be to eject a small piece like canuck said but do it farther south. I've already written it off so only positive surprises can happen. I've pretty much written off significant accumulating snow/mix here for the rest of the winter. Anything wintry that happens from here on out will be a bonus in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nope. That's all the 21-22nd storm from the looks of the maps. Cool. I'd be happy with any type of shovellable snow to end this two week snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 all snow.. and 1-1.25" qpf. Actually you're in the 1.25-1.5" same little bit of taint as me.. 1.50-1.75" here but that's tainted by this late weeks .10-25" Wow. My optimistic side was saying maybe an inch of QPF, but nearly 1.5? Whoever gets hit with this storm at the strength progged now will get snowfall amounts similar to the Groundhog Day Storm for N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If I had to predict how I could get screwed locally, I'd say suppression is the better bet than a cutter. All the upper level patterns being depicted on the models, regardless of their sfc solutions, looks to me like it would make it near impossible for this thing to deepen and track far northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I would prefer the GFS at this point, but only time will tell what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Who knows, maybe we can pull off an improbable south trend, but it won't be easy. Best shot would be to eject a small piece like canuck said but do it farther south. I've already written it off so only positive surprises can happen. This. Just sucks cause this was in my timeframe of when I thought the northern OV would get a big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z Euro would imply a significant ice threat not that far north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow. My optimistic side was saying maybe an inch of QPF, but nearly 1.5? Whoever gets hit with this storm at the strength progged now will get snowfall amounts similar to the Groundhog Day Storm for N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin. lol.. that would be like almost 3 times the QPF MKE had in the blizzard... Just another axe job they did in a windy event. .59" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol.. that would be like almost 3 times the QPF MKE had in the blizzard... Just another axe job they did in a windy event. .59" QPF How could that be? We got just over a foot, so unless the ratios were 20:1, which I doubt they were due to the wind, we had to have received more than .59 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 How could that be? We got just over a foot, so unless the ratios were 20:1, which I doubt they were due to the wind, we had to have received more than .59 QPF. Seems like ASOS has a problem in snow events especially when it's windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol.. that would be like almost 3 times the QPF MKE had in the blizzard... Just another axe job they did in a windy event. .59" QPF LAF recorded a T with the Feb 13-14, 2007 blizzard. I'm not sure I want to calculate the ratio of 17" of snow with a T of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 How could that be? We got just over a foot, so unless the ratios were 20:1, which I doubt they were due to the wind, we had to have received more than .59 QPF. 20:1 RATIOS i guess. There wasn't a spot under 14" on my drive and most were 18"++++ And that's with most of the snow just blowing right off the first 4 to 5 hrs when the winds were really ripping.. Once they died down some if you want to call it that it really started to pile up. I went with 20" total for both snows and I don't think that was slanting one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 LAF recorded a T with the Feb 13-14, 2007 blizzard. I'm not sure I want to calculate the ratio of 17" of snow with a T of liquid. Like hoosier said the ASOS was probably useless in this storm and that's what they went with.. MKE totally struggles (understandably - kinda) with their wide open location facing east with measuring during our big storms and almost all of them accompany good winds. I guarantee 07/08 was over 100" by at least 10 and that still pisses me off (until i go to my grave) they ended with 99" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wonder what chicago came in with qpf wise? I would say we got at least or around 2/3 of the QPF they did. My wild guess here would have been about 1-1.10" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Really dont want to wait 6 days for this potential. One more reason I need to stop looking at the models past 72 hours. Easier said than done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Like hoosier said the ASOS was probably useless in this storm and that's what they went with.. MKE totally struggles (understandably - kinda) with their wide open location facing east with measuring during our big storms and almost all of them accompany good winds. I guarantee 07/08 was over 100" by at least 10 and that still pisses me off (until i go to my grave) they ended with 99" As a stats guy, I'm come to realize that measuring snow is an imperfect science. The fact that the COOPs, CoCoRahs, etc foul it up so much is to be expected I guess, not that I'm railing against those programs...I think they're great, but the numbers are laughable sometimes. But when the first order stations get screwy, that's a little weak IMO. I guess that you can say the same for measuring rainfall as well, mainly in the winter. Fact of the matter is LAF will never have a true yearly precipitation total, because the dumb station here sucks when measuring precip in snow events. Ah, but whatcha gonna do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wonder what chicago came in with qpf wise? I would say we got at least or around 2/3 of the QPF they did. My wild guess here would have been about 1-1.10" qpf. 1.57" at ORD, which averages out to a 13.5-1 ratio with the 21.2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Really dont want to wait 6 days for this potential. One more reason I need to stop looking at the models past 72 hours. Easier said than done. Right! Its nice when they show a congrats MN early.. Even then I'd still be coming back to the models all day in hopes of a miracle or maybe some back end snow showers. This one is going to be a teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 1.57" at ORD, which averages out to a 13.5-1 ratio with the 21.2" of snow. Thanks! My guess of 1-1.10" QPF doesn't sound to far off for here then I don't think.. Do you have that website addy that shows past storms radar loops? Might be able to judge my guess better looking at that compared to chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Thanks! My guess of 1-1.10" QPF doesn't sound to far off for here then I don't think.. Do you have that website addy that shows past storms radar loops? Might be able to judge my guess better looking at that compared to chicago. It's set on Feb 1 at 12:45PM, but you can obviously toggle the controls on the left hand side. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=13&interval=5&year=2011&month=2&day=1&hour=12&minute=45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It's set on Feb 1 at 12:45PM, but you can obviously toggle the controls on the left hand side. http://mesonet.agron...ur=12&minute=45 Ahh tyvm! I had it bookmarked but that PC bit the the dust and I couldn't think of the link to save my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12Z Euro DET: 1.03 QPF...all snow YYZ: 0.28 QPF...through 168 ORD: 1.55 QPF Alot of ice and heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12Z Euro DET: 1.03 QPF...all snow YYZ: 0.28 QPF...through 168 ORD: 1.55 QPF Alot of ice and heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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