Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 That's a fair point, but it's not going to take a huge shift south to get the ORD-DTW corridor into the game. I'd have to check soundings, but verbatim the 12z GFS looks like a gnarly ice storm for Detroit. True as well, but the big blizzard we all knew ORD, DET etc was going to get almost a direct hit, plus Ohio was more involved as well (based on some of the models) So with all factors included, I could see why it hasn't been all that active in here. ORD and DTW are in the game yet no doubt though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 something that caught my eye just looking at some stuff on the 12z NAM. We would have a shot at a brief period of +SN here if this run were to verify. 850mb temps actually cool here from 6z sun to 12z sun with the intial slug of precip making its way in. after this we warm quite quickly thanks to a 50kt LLJ impressive UVV's at the same time forecast sounding for the time period. after that we get quite the warm push around 800mb as we continue to warm aloft. hodo's with these soundings are pornographic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's strange how low the traffic has been in this thread, considering this is a decent sized snow/ice threat. Might be a microcosm of the public's attitude in general. I'm thinking a lot of people are under the impression spring is here for good. I'm watching from a distance. I wish all you in IA, MN, WI, MI, and ON all the luck in the world with this one. For all intents and purposes, winter (accumulating snow) is done for LAF. One look at the extended pretty much tells the tale for here. With that, I've lost all of my enthusiasm for winter. But it is what it is...a lot of guys will have some nice opportunities hopefully for the rest of Feb into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 UKMET looks like a one two punch. Storm 1 zips along a path similar to the GFS/NAM (central IA to far S MI to the NY/PA line) but at D3 there's a new 996 low in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 UKMET looks like a one two punch. Storm 1 zips along a path similar to the GFS/NAM (central IA to far S MI to the NY/PA line) but at D3 there's a new 996 low in northern IL. GGEM tries to do the same thing from the looks of it. EDIT: GGEM is close, but it stopped just shy of doing what the UKMET did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 So like the EURO from a few days ago when it showed a 1004 low in IN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM tries to do the same thing from the looks of it. GGEM has the same lpc in OK at 72, so it's much further south than the UKIE. So like the EURO from a few days ago when it showed a 1004 low in IN? Yeah, looks like it. But it's a big outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm watching from a distance. I wish all you in IA, MN, WI, MI, and ON all the luck in the world with this one. For all intents and purposes, winter (accumulating snow) is done for LAF. One look at the extended pretty much tells the tale for here. With that, I've lost all of my enthusiasm for winter. But it is what it is...a lot of guys will have some nice opportunities hopefully for the rest of Feb into early March. No way is accumulating snow done at LAF! March is the month when freak snows tend to come out of nowhere. The last few years where we shift from heavy snow to nothing in March is not the norm....Im not saying winters back isnt broken, but no way does LAF see no more measurable snow this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM has the same lpc in OK at 72, so it's much further south than the UKIE. It started to go big with it at 60hr then it crapped out. So it won't take much for it to look like the UKMET or the EURO from a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm watching from a distance. I wish all you in IA, MN, WI, MI, and ON all the luck in the world with this one. For all intents and purposes, winter (accumulating snow) is done for LAF. One look at the extended pretty much tells the tale for here. With that, I've lost all of my enthusiasm for winter. But it is what it is...a lot of guys will have some nice opportunities hopefully for the rest of Feb into early March. lol, such a defeatist attitude (although I know a little something about that ). That D6-7 storm has been trending colder so you never know. I know you don't need a pep talk from me Tim, but I'm sure there'll be more opportunities for LAF before winter is done for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 No way is accumulating snow done at LAF! March is the month when freak snows tend to come out of nowhere. The last few years where we shift from heavy snow to nothing in March is not the norm....Im not saying winters back isnt broken, but no way does LAF see no more measurable snow this season! lol, such a defeatist attitude (although I know a little something about that ). That D6-7 storm has been trending colder so you never know. I know you don't need a pep talk from me Tim, but I'm sure there'll be more opportunities for LAF before winter is done for real. Meh, my interest has been broken. Not sure why, but it is. It was a good run, but we're pretty much done here. Trust me, March snow climo is very poor for LAF compared to places just to the north. But I'm really ok with it, which is kinda strange too. Good luck to you all with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 SREF clusters the track along the Iowa/Missouri border into Central Illinois. So yeah, there's still hope for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS Bufkit updated: La Crosse: (HR/QPF/2M/850) HR 42: 0.02 28 -4 HR 45: 0.09 28 -4 HR 48: 0.17 26 -4 HR 51: 0.39 27 -2 HR 54: 0.08 31 0 HR 57: 0.17 31 0 HR 60: 0.13 28 1 HR 63: 0.07 25 -2 HR 66: 0.12 22 -5 HR 69: 0.13 20 -9 HR 72: 0.06 18 -11 HR 75: 0.04 17 -11 So to be safe, it looks like: HR 42-51 should be all snow, which would be .67 QPF all snow. HR 54-63 should be freezing rain or snow. HR 66-75 would be snow. So: 1.02 QPF snow, .38 frozen precip. That would be my best guess on the GFS for LSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 SREF clusters the track along the Iowa/Missouri border into Central Illinois. So yeah, there's still hope for all of us. So sounds like the OP GFS is the most north of the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 So sounds like the OP GFS is the most north of the 12z runs? The SREF is somewhat of a southern outlier though, the main/global models are all clustered further north. GGEM is colder for us. We go from moderate snow to just ice versus snow to ice to rain. BAsically it's just a hair warmer than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well the chances of plain rain appear to be decreasing, but a significant snow and especially a significant ice threat unfortunately is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Prins, do you think you could put together a map with the GEM and UKIE's QPF? Would be appreciated if you could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z GEM has the the first sfc low go into southeast IA, def south of the 0z run. It then brings the second sfc low to around Louisville with central IL getting in on a good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Prins, do you think you could put together a map with the GEM and UKIE's QPF? Would be appreciated if you could. ukie/gem hr 60 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just listened to JB on his video if you are interested. He said that the 1st storm will probably be from I80 and north for Snow and the 2nd storm in between I70-I80 and this is where he feels that this area will get hit by both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks good, appreciate it. Should we use the other thread now since this reached page 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 something that caught my eye just looking at some stuff on the 12z NAM. We would have a shot at a brief period of +SN here if this run were to verify. 850mb temps actually cool here from 6z sun to 12z sun with the intial slug of precip making its way in. after this we warm quite quickly thanks to a 50kt LLJ impressive UVV's at the same time forecast sounding for the time period. after that we get quite the warm push around 800mb as we continue to warm aloft. hodo's with these soundings are pornographic The cobb output is pretty interesting as well for the 12z nam... Shows 7.9 inches... http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The cobb output is pretty interesting as well for the 12z nam... Shows 7.9 inches... http://www.meteor.ia...l=nam&site=kord Interesting, never used that site before. Using the Cobb output for my area. 12z nam- 8 inches 12z gfs- 13.7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 No way is accumulating snow done at LAF! March is the month when freak snows tend to come out of nowhere. The last few years where we shift from heavy snow to nothing in March is not the norm....Im not saying winters back isnt broken, but no way does LAF see no more measurable snow this season! I don't think we're completely done but our remaining snow days sure look to be limited. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/13609-feb-19th-22nd-winter-storm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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