Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It is slightly warmer so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The surface 32 degree temp runs from about southern minnesota through la crosse then ese towards Milwaukee so far at hr 57. HR 60 it extends from about La Crosse to Dodge to just north of Milwaukee. HR 63: Little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Frank just from a quick look it looks like it would start as snow/sleet and then transition to sleet so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The speed and track of the system is about the same as the 00z run, just slightly warmer and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Precip for nearly 24 hours, QPF is probably at least 1.0-1.25 it looks like. Right on the border again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks very close here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Money could be in the money if its cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah, it's close. Surface is cold enough, I have no idea about the 850 mb temps etc as of yet. Surface is probably 30-31 ish through the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Freezing line is right over the top of me at 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Slopfest frank GFS from what I see would be 1 to 4 inches of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Or 4 to 8 inches or crap that a lot of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Meh, we still get 3-6" out of it in the front end thumping before transitioning to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like it really picks up speed after 60 hrs and zooms just south of Chicago... My guess is i'll be shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Nearly 1.5 qpf for Frank with surface temps around 32 the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Oh yea... heavy slop... on to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like it really picks up speed after 60 hrs and zooms just south of Chicago... My guess is i'll be shoveling. That's an improvement in track....sure beats Kenosha and Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Surface temp, 850's, and 540 would all indicate mixed precip. La crosse is gonna have a really tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GEM is going to come in slightly further north and warmer from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 not all snow but a heckuva lot of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Nice agreement between the NAM/GFS over here. Both show 0.50-0.75" of QPF, all snow. Strong upper level divergence in tandem with a tight baroclinic zone argue for some decent f-gen banding. I'd say 6-9" generally is a good number to go with for areas that stay all snow, but there are definitely going to be some localized swaths of 12" or a bit more. Small shifts south or north are going to be key though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We still have two days before the "final" forecasts will be out. Sweating the 850 and 540 lines right now is a waste of time. They will change. Seeing what the models are doing, that is what is important at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 True that... any jog north or south 50 miles could make all the difference ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I think the NWS should start putting out WSW and stuff in the afternoon package I would think. If they wait until after 0z models, then the storm would be within 30-36 hours of starting almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Watch is up 1 county to my west for 5-10". It looks like MSP is in a pretty good spot right now for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's strange how low the traffic has been in this thread, considering this is a decent sized snow/ice threat. Might be a microcosm of the public's attitude in general. I'm thinking a lot of people are under the impression spring is here for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Might be because of that, but also the storm is going to affect the WI/MN/MI/IA posters, and to be honest, there aren't a lot of posters from that region on here. IL looks to be rain, same with IN and OH etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Might be because of that, but also the storm is going to affect the WI/MN/MI/IA posters, and to be honest, there aren't a lot of posters from that region on here. IL looks to be rain, same with IN and OH etc. That's a fair point, but it's not going to take a huge shift south to get the ORD-DTW corridor into the game. I'd have to check soundings, but verbatim the 12z GFS looks like a gnarly ice storm for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Hmm, GEM is actually slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 That's a fair point, but it's not going to take a huge shift south to get the ORD-DTW corridor into the game. I'd have to check soundings, but verbatim the 12z GFS looks like a gnarly ice storm for Detroit. Does Milwaukee have a threat of significant ice, or will it just be a hodgepodge of various mixed precip (freezing rain, sleet, etc.)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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