Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Oh my, the 12z NAM is a nice hit. 5-8" from Milwaukee to Detroit on the front end thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like mostly snow north of 94 in Detroit. NICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM has .75-1 QPF from S. WI to Detroit. Looks to be all snow here, would be a solid 8-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Oh my, the 12z NAM is a nice hit. 5-8" from Milwaukee to Detroit on the front end thumping. I would get crushed with the 12Z NAM. You would get some snow then you would need to make sure you have batteries in your flashlight after that because I doubt that surface would get above 32F with NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM has .75-1 QPF from S. WI to Detroit. Looks to be all snow here, would be a solid 8-12 inches. Ratios would suck though. I would say more like 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I would get crushed with the 12Z NAM. You would get some snow then you would need to make sure you have batteries in your flashlight after that because I doubt that surface would get above 32F with NE winds. Yeah, NAM suggests heavy snow to ice then back to snow (Another 1" or 2")down here. Everyone north of M-59 (I-96 west side of the state) is safely snow. That would be one nasty winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM has .75-1 QPF from S. WI to Detroit. Looks to be all snow here, would be a solid 8-12 inches. More like 1.25. Lock it in. Weird how there's 2 bands of precipitation with one storm. Also starting to think its either or with the two waves. If the first wave travels like the 6z models show, the second one will likely be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ratios would suck though. I would say more like 4-8 inches. 10:1 ratio should be good this time around. Aggregates are usually efficient accumulators, which we should have plenty of with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 10-12:1 ratios (up here at least) would be 7-11 inches or so. 8:1 probably down towards Milwaukee, 10:1 up here, not sure about Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 gosh if only we could get this this a bit further south and we would be in buisness here. 6z GFS took a good step in that direction from the 0z run but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The best part of this is that it's only 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ratios will not be good I would guess. Moneyman I would think 6 to 8 would be a good number for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 One thing I'm liking about these southward shifts now is the system is gradually being sampled (and since it's not fully sampled it may not be done shifting southward), so I personally like where I'm sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 :yikes: from jon dee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 :yikes: from jon dee Henry like making snow maps before the energy is sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Apaprently NAM gives Detroit 5-6" of snow followed by 1-2" of sleet then finally to top things off nearly a quarter inch of freezing rain. Devastating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Apaprently NAM gives Detroit 5-6" of snow followed by 1-2" of sleet then finally to top things off nearly a quarter inch of freezing rain. Devastating... Here in the northern suburbs (N59) would see mostly snow. 7-8 inches and some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This system is certainly one to watch here in Michiana. NWS is calling for rain/fzra Sat night after midnight till 1 p.m. Sunday, then a switch to snow. Tonight's models will certainly be telling if that southward trend continues with better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Here in the northern suburbs (N59) would see mostly snow. 7-8 inches and some sleet Yep, The Port Huron-Flint-just north of Grand Rapids-just north of Milwaukee coridor would be the sweet spot this run. I should note though, sometimes the models may confuse snow for sleet. That's why I like to take a top-down look at them versus relying strictly on the preicpitation types. Anybody north of M-59 (I-96 on the west side of the state) based on a top-down look is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 gosh if only we could get this this a bit further south and we would be in buisness here. 6z GFS took a good step in that direction from the 0z run but we'll see. Maybe it's just me, but I think we're still a long ways off from being in the game. The WAA is going to be underdone on that initial slug, you can count on that, especially with the cold airmass ahead of it being so weak and lacking snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe it's just me, but I think we're still a long ways off from being in the game. The WAA is going to be underdone on that initial slug, you can count on that, especially with the cold airmass ahead of it being so weak and lacking snow cover. ya were still a good deal away but if the 12z GFS continues south it will get a bit more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yep, 0.67" of all snow at Metro Airport followed by 0.12" of sleet and 0.35" of freezing rain. Very good omega on this run was squarely placed in the DGZ, so make would make up for whatever ratio were lost from the wetness of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe it is just me but during this time of the year you always have to watch out for waa. That's just me and I am a novice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe it is just me but during this time of the year you always have to watch out for waa. That's just me and I am a novice No snow pack, late feb sun, long southerly vectors out of the gulf, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS coming in stronger through 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z GFS will not deliver for those on the border looking for a south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am not saying it will be super drastic, but those on the southern end of the all snowline need to watch it carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is it warmer? I am so on the edge here it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is it warmer? I am so on the edge here it would seem. It's about the same temp wise, so far... BTW, this is in comparison to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am not saying it will be super drastic, but those on the southern end of the all snowline need to watch it carefully. this screams efficient warming to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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