Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Harry, do you have the 2M temps and stuff by any chance? I think it would be snow to rain here, although I think it's close. That 32 line is basically breathing down your neck the whole time. Can apply that back to the MN/IA line. It hardly moves till system 1 precip is out of there and then it drops down to near Chicago area on east into N.IN/N.OH as system 2 arrives. Very little QPF in these parts from system one. Most of it stays north of Grand Rapids. Thus most of it is from system 2. Can apply this to Detroit and points south and east etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Thanks Chi. Can't get any closer then that for hr 66 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Firmly in the 1.0 to 1.25 zone which is the highest zone up that way. Basically all of S.MN over to Green bay/UP of MI line is in that zone. The .75 to 1 inch line runs across N.IA to near Madison and Milwaukee and northern MI. The other zone of 1 inch to 1.25 runs along and north of i70 in IN/OH up into S.MI/i94. With 1.25+ from near Ft. Wayne across all of nothern Ohio and a small bullseye of 1.50 near Mansfield. .75 to 1 inch from Muskegon ese to the northern Detroit Burbs/Buffalo. .50 to .75 for the Toronto guys. Most of the QPF with this is from system 2. Impressive stuff--thanks for the info. Straddling a close line here for those on the edge between heavy snow and little if any based on the thermals. This one will still have some surprises--though not as huge as the last three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 For some reason I'm not feeling this storm :/.. I dont know why lol... haven't since day one, to much flip flopping going on, it is the theme of this winter anyways.. The winter of model Flip Flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Impressive stuff--thanks for the info. Straddling a close line here for those on the edge between heavy snow and little if any based on the thermals. This one will still have some surprises--though not as huge as the last three days. Yeah good luck up that way with system 1. As mentioned it does not look good for those further se with that entry point into the Plains. Only hope is for it to come into the Plains further south. System 2 is still to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Should I lock this topic? If so, how do I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Should I lock this topic? If so, how do I? 1. You cant. Only a mod can. 2. It still has not reached 1,000 posts which is usually when a topic gets locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's not even to 50 pages yet. That's when Hoosier usually locks it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 and we need somebody to jinx this storm south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's not even to 50 pages yet. That's when Hoosier usually locks it. Sorry. I wasn't sure if I would be up when it reached 50 pages, so I decided to make a new topic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Sorry. I wasn't sure if I would be up when it reached 50 pages, so I decided to make a new topic now. No biggie we just move to it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 and we need somebody to jinx this storm south We Need Hoosier to start it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 We Need Hoosier to start it.. If you want, I will just submit to the brilliance of the Hoosier mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We Need Hoosier to start it.. I def owe him some good behavior going forward at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I just want some dam cold air to be felt.. Last March was a real downer with winter just ending.. I can't go two marches without having a buffer on the ice for torches.. Snow pack would be nice but this past 6 days took care of that.. Always nice to have snow on the shore instead of feb/march sun beating down on bare grass/shore and opening the shore up while there is a foot of ice or more on the lake. At least travel on the lakes should be easy going forward.. Meh whatcha gonna do. Only momma natures knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I just want some dam cold air to be felt.. Last March was a real downer with winter just ending.. I can't go two marches without having a buffer on the ice for torches.. Snow pack would be nice but this past 6 days took care of that.. Always nice to have snow on the shore instead of feb/march sun beating down on bare grass/shore and opening the shore up while there is a foot of ice or more on the lake. At least travel on the lakes should be easy going forward.. Meh whatcha gonna do. Only momma natures knows. This would be the 3rd March in a row if it were to torch. Both March 2009 and last March sucked in the snowfall dept as records were broke for least snowfall ( in the month of March ) in both 2009 and 2010. Would be a extremely impressive event if it were to happen again this March as it has never happened before to my knowledge. Ofcourse breaking crazy records seems to have become the norm in these parts as well so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodyErvin Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like the NWS gave some of the central states the first "See Text" of the year lol, but definitely something to watch as there is enough cape that could potentially be present on the 20th. Looks like they are saying hail of 1.00+" and may issue a slight risk in further outlooks. Quite an interesting February, and rarely do we Nebraskan's see severe weather this early in the year, let alone all of these 60s and 70s. The weather is behaving like April here. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 06Z NAM went a long way towards correcting itself regarding the elongated polar vortex and the eventual development of the cyclone--but it still has a few runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 New HPC graphic is out, with a huge swath of 40% of at least 8 inches, although I'm not usually a fan of the graphics they throw out. The NAM also looks to be trending towards a more GFS/ EURO solution. The 00z Euro looks a bit dicey for my area with surface temps just barely below freezing through the entire event with 1.18 inches of total precip. Its been many many years since we have seen a ice storm in these parts, hopefully we can keep it that way. But a heavy wet snow can do just as much damage to trees and power lines, we saw that back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 lol, I think I'm the only member here who liked the 0z EURO. CADed nicely. . 6z GFS on the other hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Wow we really lost snowcover. Pretty much drifts and piles left. I thought we would hold on to more than this. Hpc says it will be short. I wonder if lack of cover will increase waa a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 lol, I think I'm the only member here who liked the 0z EURO. CADed nicely. . 6z GFS on the other hand. No, switch it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well like I said, I'm looking for a decent front end thumping here, if nothing else. 06z GFS is lovely though. LOLGAPS looks a lot like the 06z GFS too. Then the same areas also get hit nicely by the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Will be interesting to see if things swing the way of the 6z GFS. Its way cooler here. Probably because the storm itself is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm wondering does the February 5th - 6th, 2008 storm show up as a analog at anytime for this system. I'll have to go see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 09Z SREF is slightly south, a good hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 09Z SREF is slightly south, a good hit here. Do you have a link to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM has gone south, more in line with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Do you have a link to them? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallsref.html Yes, I found it, thank you. It's VERY marginal with the 0*C 850mb line overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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