BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 All you goofs that want winter over in mid Feb. should start a thread where you can all lounge around in your speedo's and whisper sweet nothings to each other when the models show robins plucking worms, tulips popping, swollen tree buds and naked mud wrestling. Some b**ch when its not snowy enough and now they would rather have rain over snow in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 I get the feeling the GFS will never show a big snowstorm here in the long term. It seems it is always missing us in either direction, while the Euro gives us a pretty good hit. The Euro has generally been closer to reality, so I will only discount it if it trends significantly toward the GFS in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 All you goofs that want winter over in mid Feb. should start a thread where you can all lounge around in your speedo's and whisper sweet nothings to each other when the models show robins plucking worms, tulips popping, swollen tree buds and naked mud wrestling. Some b**ch when its not snowy enough and now they would rather have rain over snow in Feb this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ageostrophic winds ftw. This screams skating rink potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Lol at the canadian 12z monday has a 983 low on in southwest nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 0z GEM ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Hopefully that 983 is blowing its wad out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 BOW, you're not ready for spring yet? I know I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Hopefully that 983 is blowing its wad out soon. No chance that cuts. With the H5 pattern, it'll deamplify like the GFS. You can kind of see that it wants to move more east than north based on the isobar orientation at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 BOW, you're not ready for spring yet? I know I am. I'm never ready for spring let alone on Feb 15th. I'll be rooting for Snowstorms over t-storms through May 14th. Miller Park has a roof and the weber grill provides some tailgating warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 No chance that cuts. With the H5 pattern, it'll deamplify like the GFS. You can kind of see that it wants to move more east than north based on the isobar orientation at 144. Kinna figured and was praying for your nice explanation to be the case. Nice to just have something to track that could be wintry.. If it fails and rains so be it.. There will be more chances and I don't have a snow pack to get pissed about being washed away if this event goes that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Anyone saying this system will be mostly rain didn't look at the models too in depth. The points SSC are making are all correct. Obviously the better chances of frozen/freezing precip would be further to the East, but I think even Chicago would be mostly wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Kinna figured and was praying for your nice explanation to be the case. Nice to just have something to track that could be wintry.. If it fails and rains so be it.. There will be more chances and I don't have a snow pack to get pissed about being washed away if this event goes that route. As much as it pains me to say it, Typhoon_Tip in the NE thread has some good thoughts about why the warmer solutions might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Anyone saying this system will be mostly rain didn't look at the models too in depth. The points SSC are making are all correct. Obviously the better chances of frozen/freezing precip would be further to the East, but I think even Chicago would be mostly wintry precip. We'll see what happens when the GGEM out to 180 comes out on the PSU site, but even if the GGEM tries to cut it, I can't accept that solution based on the upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Anyone saying this system will be mostly rain didn't look at the models too in depth. The points SSC are making are all correct. Obviously the better chances of frozen/freezing precip would be further to the East, but I think even Chicago would be mostly wintry precip. Wouldn't the chances be better west, on the NW side of the low? Or will the easterly winds aid in supporting colder air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wouldn't the chances be better west, ont he NW side of the low? Or will the easterly winds aid in supporting colder air? Yes, I meant for the areas where the low is moving into. Someone on the backside of this will get good snows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yes, I meant for the areas where the low is moving into. Someone on the backside of this will get good snows though. This should be interesting. Usually I would say this thing has nothing preventing it from cutting too far west, but I think the midweek storm may act as a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wouldn't the chances be better west, ont he NW side of the low? Or will the easterly winds aid in supporting colder air? This. The further east you go the better the chances the cold air gets dammed, because the strongest WAA is closer to the storm center. With not much upper level support, this storm doesn't look like it'll have a huge deformation zone precip. GGEM does try to cut that storm, with hilarious consequences. The storm gets shredded to bits and pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This. The further east you go the better the chances the cold air gets dammed, because the strongest WAA is closer to the storm center. With not much upper level support, this storm doesn't look like it'll have a huge deformation zone precip. GGEM does try to cut that storm, with hilarious consequences. The storm gets shredded to bits and pieces. Never understood why some lows that get down below 1000 don't have much of a deformation band snow. You would think lows that can get that strong would have enough upper level support to have a decent deformation band. OT but wow at the south korea pics from the blizzard. http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/02/14/6050735-snow-bomb-hits-south-korea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nice from JD.COM Kinna surprised he has the possible snow so far south.. Encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS says rain storm for me...i could see flooding issues... The melt continues for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nice from JD.COM Kinna surprised he has the possible snow so far south.. Encouraging. If you take the average of the recent GFS and Euro models, you basically get this kind of map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS says rain storm for me...i could see flooding issues... The melt continues for another week. Prob inevitable but at least you got some of the snow gone.. lots to the north yet with both you and them having a lot more snow yet to come methinks - and of course rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If you take the average of the recent GFS and Euro models, you basically get this kind of map. Yup. We will be thanking our lucky stars though if we stay all snow I have a feeling. Hopefully just me being a Negative Nellie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Another day, more solutions, but still not seeing anything that would be favorable for wintry precip around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yup. We will be thanking our lucky stars though if we stay all snow I have a feeling. If the northwest trends from the blizzard are still alive, then unfortunately so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro would prob be a nice front end thump at least... see what happens after 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 156 keeps her down by LAF or S. Nice.. Off to the east after. nice 6-12" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Bow- What the EURO say up this way? What about precip amts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Bow- What the EURO say up this way? What about precip amts? all snow.. and 1-1.25" qpf. Actually you're in the 1.25-1.5" same little bit of taint as me.. 1.50-1.75" here but that's tainted by this late weeks .10-25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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