baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 How much south kab? Link? Pretty close to the GFS at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM has shifted south some...decent snow/ice emphasis on ice here. That what it seems like. GGEM's precipitation type maps are only out to 51hr, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like the euro is the only model with the second wave further north. Or maybe the precip is just further north and the low is in a similar spot. Doesn't it seem reasonable that the second low drops snow a bit further south from the first wave? I think the euro does sort of have precip further south than the first wave but still has good precip further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Second Wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Per the 00z GGEM's precipitation types, Chicago gets in on the front end thumping snow this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am really starting to get concerned that there will be a very good ice potential for someone on this one along the 80 corridor. I certainly think up this way there is a real chance too, though snow could end up the dominant precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Per the 00z GGEM's precipitation types, Chicago gets in on the front end thumping snow this time. As soon as it moves past 48 out of the RGEM, u can see the precip jump a bit south. Usually they are pretty close but not this run. Usually though the RGEM is more amped and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I know Dec 19, 08 has been mentioned before, one similarity beside th E-W orientation, etc. is the ice potential. We had a WSW for FZ rain to begin with, which turned out to be 9" of snow in the end...Northern IN/IL had much ice problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like the euro is the only model with the second wave further north. Or maybe the precip is just further north and the low is in a similar spot. Doesn't it seem reasonable that the second low drops snow a bit further south from the first wave? I think the euro does sort of have precip further south than the first wave but still has good precip further north. I think the euro just tries to keep it one piece more.. I could be totally wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 As soon as it moves past 48 out of the RGEM, u can see the precip jump a bit south. Usually they are pretty close but not this run. Usually though the RGEM is more amped and warmer. It's definitely colder so far. Chicago sees 3 hours of all snow so far (through 58hr). EDIT: 4 hours through 59hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Powerball, you have a link to the precip type for the GEM so I can put it in my favorite lists? Thanks bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I know Dec 19, 08 has been mentioned before, one similarity beside th E-W orientation, etc. is the ice potential. We had a WSW for FZ rain to begin with, which turned out to be 9" of snow in the end...Northern IN/IL had much ice problems. Yea there was a pretty sharp cutoff at about M59. A foot plus north with just 2-4 inches near the border. We are heading in that direction with probably less amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Powerball, you have a link to the precip type for the GEM so I can put it in my favorite lists? Thanks bud. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well Chicago saw 6 hours of all front thumping snow before the ice/rain rain moved in. It's out to 66hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 How much south kab? Link? Dude, you ask for the GGEM link every night. Bookmark it please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 WAA on the 00z GGEM was lagging at first, but it really kicked in after 60hr. Detroit saw 7 hours of snow, then 5 hours of a mix before transitioning to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Southern-central MN definitely a winner with the GGEM. 15-18 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Looks like 6-8 hours of snow for detroit area before changing to freezing rain...slowly trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Tonroto's all snow, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Tonroto's all snow, but it's close. Chance of plain rain: close to 0%. I'm happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Chance of plain rain: close to 0%. I'm happy with that. That's one thing I like about your locaton, CAD can you wonders for the Toronto region and NE in these types of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 My overall interest for this storm is starting to wane for this particular area. Snow misses way north, and it looks like the best rains stay north as well. The good thing though is we have another shot at 60 on Sunday if all things go well. Hope you guys up north and northeast can get some appreciable snows out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just pushed out 04Z Smartmodel output and looking over snowfall potential for the next 48 hours. Duluth is projecting around 10", Rockford, IL about 4.5", and Chicago area around 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 My plan is to start a new thread shortly after the Euro comes out, maybe a half hour to 45 minutes after, given this thread may swell shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Using the free stuff--I see little to no difference through 48 on the Euro. A few very small differences--could be argued it is a tad stronger with the lee low compared to last nights 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's stronger and a bit farther north/warmer. GB gets crushed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Definitely stronger and farther N through 72 hours. 994 low in NE Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 not even worth a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 50's for Chicago and probably 60F for cyclone on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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