prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 fwiw 0z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 3-5" front end thumping, I'll take it. Not really. More like 1-3" Likely a decent freezing rain hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks a little north of 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Not really. More like less than 1" http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=78¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That's from NO snow depth. BTW, it's a typical model error for the snow accumulation to cut off around bodies of water. Just extrapolate the general amounts that are ot eh west eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 All of Ohio gets a good hit with the second wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=78¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That's from NO snow depth. I edited my post once the rest of raw output came in. Still more freezing rain than snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 3-5" front end thumping, I'll take it. Bufkit shows about a 2-4 range so basically the same as what you're thinking....then 0.2 ice accum....we even get around a 150 elevated cape so thunder would be likely....SBN actually gets near 350 cape so they might even get small hail....man if only it was summer (minus the inversion) what a wind field....prob too strong but hodo has 3km helicity of 1500 for SBN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 DLL, you look to be mostly snow on the GFS with a solid 10-12+ inches. I'm literally right on the line of heavy snow, probably sleet/freezing rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=78¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That's from NO snow depth. BTW, it's a typical model error for the snow accumulation to cut off around bodies of water. Just extrapolate the general amounts that are ot eh west eastward. I've never once used twisterdatas snow map to see how much snow id get and never will. use actual forecasting tools or raw data and figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 mnweather screwed on the nw side and me the se side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yep, that helicity is phenomenal here in Michiana. Severe weather season looms. Right now I'm still concerned about fzra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 DLL, you look to be mostly snow on the GFS with a solid 10-12+ inches. I'm literally right on the line of heavy snow, probably sleet/freezing rain here. FWIW bufkit for GRB shows about the same as here in SE Mich....3 or 4 snow then 0.15-0.2 ice. the last half shows the entire column is below freezing the problem there is the profile is only saturated up to about the -7 icotherm then abundant dry air above that....this is for the last 5 hours of the event with regard to the saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 use actual forecasting tools or raw data and figure it out. I did as well, I just posted to map to show we got more than 1" on this run. A top-down look at DET suggests 5 or 6 good hours of all snow, which the GFS at least totals up to 0.40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW bufkit for GRB shows about the same as here in SE Mich....3 or 4 snow then 0.15-0.2 ice. the last half shows the entire column is below freezing the problem there is the profile is only saturated up to about the -7 icotherm then abundant dry air above that....this is for the last 5 hours of the event with regard to the saturation. Yuck. Thanks for that, I didn't look at the raw output yet, but I was just going by 850 mb temps and surface, and it looked good up in GB. Guess not. Must be pretty bad here then, since I am a good 60 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 mnweather screwed on the nw side and me the se side. It's alright man, we'll just dust ourselves off and wait for the next miss next week. It is a curse. You will get used to it over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 rain storm here, which isn't a bad thing tore my achilles tendon this week so shoveling is out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yuck. Thanks for that, I didn't look at the raw output yet, but I was just going by 850 mb temps and surface, and it looked good up in GB. Guess not. Must be pretty bad here then, since I am a good 60 miles south. Ahhh it's only one model run and it's the NAM (which is prob too far north)....plus energy is just now getting sampled....but here is a couple images for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ah, at first I thought you were talking about the GFS in terms of only 2-3 inches of snow for GRB etc. I'm assuming you're talking about the NAM now right? UKIE/GFS have pretty good agreement on the track at least through hr 72 (although ukie is stronger) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ah, at first I thought you were talking about the GFS in terms of only 2-3 inches of snow for GRB etc. I'm assuming you're talking about the NAM now right? UKIE/GFS have pretty good agreement on the track at least through hr 72 (although ukie is stronger) Yeah I was talking the NAM to get the "latest data". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is the storm in the plains yet? I used to have patience, but it has gone out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is the storm in the plains yet? I used to have patience, but it has gone out the window Nope it's entering the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is the storm in the plains yet? I used to have patience, but it has gone out the window Still out in the Pacific as three distinct waves/vortices and is currently consolidating into one trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 rain storm here, which isn't a bad thing tore my achilles tendon this week so shoveling is out of the question Twister weenie map thumps ya before flipping. How accurate it is I don't know but it does look like you could start out snow and the precip is cranking during the window Take it easy and I hope you recover fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is the storm in the plains yet? I used to have patience, but it has gone out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM has shifted south some...decent snow/ice emphasis on ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Still out in the Pacific as three distinct waves/vortices and is currently consolidating into one trough. Yea it was a rhetorical question. Thanks the the response though, and the graphic on the last post on the previous page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is the storm in the plains yet? I used to have patience, but it has gone out the window I think he is joking guys! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 How much south kab? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 00Z GEFS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 How much south kab? Link? EnvironCanada http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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