BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Or I could go babysit franks wife and baby saturday while him and the boy go out scouting all day for a guided fishing trip with me on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Amazing how the models *seem* to react to the AO/NAO? Tells me the issue the models have is located in E.Canada/Greenland? I still personally like something closer to the euro vs GFS/NAM. Yeah it looks pretty active and all from MN to the Ohio river may be able to cash in on something out of it. One of the bonuses of having a -PNA as it tends to keep the Pacific wave train pretty active vs a +PNA/Ridge which ends up sending them to the N.PAC and having to rely on them holding some energy/moisture as they dive back south on the east side of the ridge. Problem for me seems to be something else than PNA. It can be -or + and I still miss with either. Very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Problem for me seems to be something else than PNA. It can be -or + and I still miss with either. Very frustrating. I always thought -PNA were best for Minnesota (the deep trough in the west allows the storm to dig earlier thus cut sooner)? The only thing preventing this one from really cutting is that PV over Ontario/Hudson Bay. That's really saving our butts further south. Further SE we do best with a neutral PNA when it comes to snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I honestly think you will have more snow than up north. We will see though. lol I hope you're right but I would give you a 95% of getting a lot more than me if i even get anything. Rather you guys get it than me unless I could get a warning and at least 8" Maybe could hit the trails for one day if that happened.. You guys need the snow more than me. Where ru located in MN anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 lol I hope you're right but I would give you a 95% of getting a lot more than me if i even get anything. I think we have both been shafted in the past too many times. One of us will get something. I am on the north shore by Duluth. Still about 10" on the ground by the lake. You think the NAM is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 BUFKIT per NAM KDET is 3.1" of snow, slight freezing rain, then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Problem for me seems to be something else than PNA. It can be -or + and I still miss with either. Very frustrating. You are in Duluth correct? If so your chances should get better as we head into March and ofcourse there is still April in those parts. Still i would not write anything off before then either if i were you. Pop a decent enough +NAO/se Ridge with this -PNA and you are set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I think we have both been shafted in the past too many times. One of us will get something. You think the NAM is right? Unfortunately no.. But that doesn't mean anything coming from me.. I have a feeling its in catch up mode but its only a feeling. Normally can get a feel if the NAM is on to something early but this just doesn't feel like one of those times. Now watch the euro come in real hot and really wouldn't take much. Seen things cut real far NW when we thought it shouldn't Just hope we can have a better feeling and consensus come tomorrow night.. this thing is creeping up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 You are in Duluth correct? If so your chances should get better as we head into March and ofcourse there is still April in those parts. Still i would not write anything off before then either if i were you. Pop a decent enough +NAO/se Ridge with this -PNA and you are set. Maybe late next week? I had snow in May last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I always thought -PNA were best for Minnesota (the deep trough in the west allows the storm to dig earlier thus cut sooner)? The only thing preventing this one from really cutting is that PV over Ontario/Hudson Bay. That's really saving our butts further south. Further SE we do best with a neutral PNA when it comes to snow potential. That PV is the worst. Just because -PNA it doesn't seem to matter I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 That PV is the worst. Just because -PNA it doesn't seem to matter I guess. Yeah, for you it just seems like coincidental bad timing & placement rather than a flaw with the -PNA. Our storm as of right now is cutting pretty hard right now, which is typical in a -PNA regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Most of this (6 hr precip) should be snow. Anything in Southern Michigan/SW Ontario beyond then is ice/rain/drizzle,but areas along/NE of a Detroit-Big Rapids line is iffy. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false It ends up extrapolating to a nice event (warning criteria?) for Toronto/SSC with 98% all snow. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false NAM is 5.5" of snow for YYZ before it turns to ZR (although based on how shallow the warm layer is, PL is more likely). But I'm analyzing a model run that has probably no chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe late next week? I had snow in May last year. I'd be shocked if you didn't at least double your snow pack by next sunday.. Euro has 3 chances for the lakes and upper MW and one looks to have blizzard conditions possibly in the dakota's and MN. In Fantasy land so taken with a lot of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I always thought -PNA were best for Minnesota (the deep trough in the west allows the storm to dig earlier thus cut sooner)? The only thing preventing this one from really cuting is that PV over Ontario/Hudson Bay. That's really saving our butts further south. Further SE we do best with a neutral PNA when it comes to snow potential. Works best if the NAO is + and the EPO is on the +side. Can still get it with a -EPO as well but then other help is needed via a more + NAO/AO or displaced block. Why usually those areas ( N.MN/ND/N.Plains etc ) do best ( see most of their climo snowfall ) in Nov/Early Dec and again in March and April. Most of the winters when they did great we had a decent torch in this area on south and east. Basically those patterns were amped and set for the majority of the winter. I believe 48/49 and perhaps 49-50 fit that to a t as did 97-98. Even 91-92 may have had it was another in the 90s i believe but forgot which. Ofcourse there is always exceptions to the rule as well via a bomb etc. The NAO seems to have a bigger impact here then does the PNA. The -PNA becomes our enemy typically when the NAO is decently + and the EPO is on the +side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Works best if the NAO is + and the EPO is on the +side. Can still get it with a -EPO as well but then other help is needed via a more + NAO/AO or displaced block. Why usually those areas ( N.MN/ND/N.Plains etc ) do best ( see most of their climo snowfall ) in Nov/Early Dec and again in March and April. Most of the winters when they did great we had a decent torch in this area on south and east. Basically those patterns were amped and set for the majority of the winter. I believe 48/49 and perhaps 49-50 fit that to a t as did 97-98. Even 91-92 may have had it was another in the 90s i believe but forgot which. Ofcourse there is always exceptions to the rule as well via a bomb etc. The NAO seems to have a bigger impact here then does the PNA. The -PNA becomes our enemy typically when the NAO is decently + and the EPO is on the +side. 91-92 had a big snow in fall but not much after. 97-98 was horrible for snow. 95-96 was awesome. 135" that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Maybe late next week? I had snow in May last year. Yeah as mentioned a few posts back i think all from MN to the OH River will have a shot or two to cash in the next couple of weeks and perhaps beyond. I'll take my chances much more with a -PNA vs +PNA as that atleast should keep it active. Unless the NAO goes insanely negative that is. That is my worst enemy along with anyone else who lives in MI/Toronto etc. Anything is better then cold and boring. Yes i'll take a torch over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 91-92 had a big snow in fall but not much after. 97-98 was horrible for snow. 95-96 was awesome. 135" that season. So i did have them mixed up. I know there was a few decent ones had back then. What about 96-97? Maybe i confused that with 97-98 or whatever? I think the only ones who may ever look back fondly on 97-98 live or lived along the Ohio River. Sure a few down that way will recall why. Outside of that was a pretty craptastic winter from coast to coast. Did not bother me as much as it was atleast warm enough outside ( i lived in DE one half and se VA the other of winter ) to enjoy alot of the time. Anyways GFS time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 So i did have them mixed up. I know there was a few decent ones had back then. What about 96-97? Maybe i confused that with 97-98 or whatever? I think the only ones who may ever look back fondly on 97-98 live or lived along the Ohio River. Sure a few down that way will recall why. Outside of that was a pretty craptastic winter from coast to coast. Did not bother me as much as it was atleast warm enough outside ( i lived in DE one half and se VA the other of winter ) to enjoy alot of the time. Anyways GFS time.. 96-97 was a good winter too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS looks similar to 18z so far through hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 whats it looking like money, rain snow or sleet??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Works best if the NAO is + and the EPO is on the +side. Can still get it with a -EPO as well but then other help is needed via a more + NAO/AO or displaced block. Why usually those areas ( N.MN/ND/N.Plains etc ) do best ( see most of their climo snowfall ) in Nov/Early Dec and again in March and April. Most of the winters when they did great we had a decent torch in this area on south and east. Basically those patterns were amped and set for the majority of the winter. I believe 48/49 and perhaps 49-50 fit that to a t as did 97-98. Even 91-92 may have had it was another in the 90s i believe but forgot which. Ofcourse there is always exceptions to the rule as well via a bomb etc. The NAO seems to have a bigger impact here then does the PNA. The -PNA becomes our enemy typically when the NAO is decently + and the EPO is on the +side. I agree with you about the NAO having a bigger impact than the PNA. The storms are going to happen to come out of the Pacific regardless, but the NAO dictates roughly where they're going to track. I can personally live with a -PNA/slightly -NAO setup too. Of course our best snowstorms have come during -EPO/PNA/+NAO/+AO versus -PNAs. But yeah, as for this storm, I'm blaming it on bad timing & placement as to why it's not cutting like it normally would. Except for this brief dip (largely because of the aforementioned vortex getting in the way) the NAO/AO should flip back positive. The atlantic blocking is gone for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS looks similar to 18z so far through hr 54. It's slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 And stronger. This thing is crawling. In 9 hours it moved from near W. IA to E. IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 And stronger. This thing is crawling. In 9 hours it moved from near W. IA to E. IA. Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Lock it in. Sniceet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 well its not moving fast enough and south enough lol. Pretty meh run. Thought it might be a slight amount better then it got ugly. Can't afford that stupid little ridging and need it to keep bowling along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Sniceet 3-5" front end thumping, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Meh. About .75 qpf of sleet here. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 2nd storm has been shifted north a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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