dilly84 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW... not a whole lot from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 That's the 15z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 not a whole lot from the looks of it. Is it ever? I just posted it partly because I was bored and partly for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 That's the 15z? Yeah 21Z isn't out yet on Ewall--usually doesn't come out until the 0Z NAM has rolled out on Ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah 21Z isn't out yet on Ewall--usually doesn't come out until the 0Z NAM has rolled out on Ewall. 21z sref at 72...mean is made without the eta members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 21z sref at 72...mean is made without the eta members Thanks Prinsburg! Can you do plots of 500 hpa/vorticity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Thanks Prinsburg! Can you do plots of 500 hpa/vorticity? i'll write up a script for that and have it ready for 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 So with the 21z SREF mean further south than 15z do you think the 00z NAM will come in more south compared to 12z and 18z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'd have to give the winter an A+ with that snow bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 0z NAM is still pretty much the same as 18Z except it is a tick slower with the northern stream and the western S/W ejecting into the plains is beefier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 0z NAM is still pretty much the same as 18Z except it is a tick slower with the northern stream and the western S/W ejecting into the plains is beefier. maybe it will track further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 21Z SREF kept us here below the 0C 850 line the whole run, much better compared to the 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 maybe it will track further south? per Patrick's thoughts, there's at least a chance the two waves might flip wrt latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 maybe it will track further south? Yeah the S/W through the plains is a tad S--but it is also more amped with stronger low level cyclogenesis so it is still a rather warm first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM was farther S early on with the ejecting S/W but it is much more intense with the low level cyclone and the precip band is actually a tad farther N as a result. Still not buying the NAM and the way it progresses the northern stream vortex. I still believe this will come farther S than what the NAM currently has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM was farther S early on with the ejecting S/W but it is much more intense with the low level cyclone and the precip band is actually a tad farther N as a result. Still not buying the NAM and the way it progresses the northern stream vortex. I still believe this will come farther S than what the NAM currently has. Also seems to be a good 6-12 hours slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This run brought back our front end thmping of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I personally don't care much for them till we are inside of 48hrs. Ofcourse the EPO may throw a curve ball of it's own.. That can and usually does help make up for a lacking -NAO. That places the trough further into the west/rockies vs along the coast/just offshore. Helps with digging to. So instead of systems coming out into say KS/NE ( with a +EPO/+NAO ) they end up taking the route sorta like the blizzard did out into OK/TX etc. From that point it becomes a matter of the PV/AO and exactly where that is as to how hard it cuts. Thanks much for explaining that all to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Here's the old ETA's depiction. Has a northern OV track. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Also seems to be a good 6-12 hours slower than the GFS. Yeah NAM gets so amped up it slows the overall wave down as it amplifies a lot more. There is some credence for an amped solution as warm transport in the warm sector will not moderate with the lack of snowpack--but the NAM has the PV much slower than the GFS and other globals--so I don't expect this to track as far N as the NAM currently does. GFS may be a bit flat and S too--for now I am thinking more middle ground leaning heavily towards the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM was farther S early on with the ejecting S/W but it is much more intense with the low level cyclone and the precip band is actually a tad farther N as a result. Still not buying the NAM and the way it progresses the northern stream vortex. I still believe this will come farther S than what the NAM currently has. Gotta love how the model just drives it right into that PV/system in Canada. So yeah my hunch is it does shift south and by a bit perhaps as well. We'll see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Here's the old ETA's depiction. Has a northern OV track. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/etaloop.html ETA actually looks much more realistic than the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Gotta love how the model just drives it right into that PV/system in Canada. So yeah my hunch is it does shift south and by a bit perhaps as well. We'll see anyways. SREF mean shifted drastically S in one run. Seems reasonable--NAM still playing catch-up. 15Z SREF mean: 21Z SREF mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Gotta love how the model just drives it right into that PV/system in Canada. So yeah my hunch is it does shift south and by a bit perhaps as well. We'll see anyways. This should be a fun week and a half at least....after that second system gets going in the southern plains there's a third "bowling ball" heading south along the coast. I agree with the south shift but am curious how much the southern 500 ridge will impede that shift...with the high building south out of canada and that ridge staying put at 500 over the GOM region the lakes/OV may have a busy week or so. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/00/nam_850072084_l.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/00/nam_500072084_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Most of this (6 hr precip) should be snow. Anything in Southern Michigan/SW Ontario beyond then is ice/rain/drizzle,but areas along/NE of a Detroit-Big Rapids line is iffy. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false It ends up extrapolating to a nice event (warning criteria?) for Toronto/SSC with 98% all snow. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Thinking this has a road trip north hopefully under 75 miles if I can talk the wife in to it sun and come home monday. No way I'm sitting down here in pouring rain then dry sloot. Just don't see how we can avoid getting torched unless this really goes south to avoid the nasty waa.. just don't see any source of cold air for here in really any modeled situation right now? Euro is nice in part two put that's just a pipe dream ATM. Said I'd give it to friday night before I throw in the towel here so I'll give it a chance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 SREF mean shifted drastically S in one run. Seems reasonable--NAM still playing catch-up. 15Z SREF mean: 21Z SREF mean: Amazing how the models *seem* to react to the AO/NAO? Tells me the issue the models have is located in E.Canada/Greenland? I still personally like something closer to the euro vs GFS/NAM. This should be a fun week and a half at least....after that second system gets going in the southern plains there's a third "bowling ball" heading south along the coast. I agree with the south shift but am curious how much the southern 500 ridge will impede that shift...with the high building south out of canada and that ridge staying put at 500 over the GOM region the lakes/OV may have a busy week or so. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/00/nam_850072084_l.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/00/nam_500072084_l.shtml Yeah it looks pretty active and all from MN to the Ohio river may be able to cash in on something out of it. One of the bonuses of having a -PNA as it tends to keep the Pacific wave train pretty active vs a +PNA/Ridge which ends up sending them to the N.PAC and having to rely on them holding some energy/moisture as they dive back south on the east side of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Thinking this has a road trip north hopefully under 75 miles if I can talk the wife in to it sun and come home monday. No way I'm sitting down here in pouring rain then dry sloot. Just don't see how we can avoid getting torched unless this really goes south to avoid the nasty waa.. just don't see any source of cold air for here in really any modeled situation right now? Euro is nice in part two put that's just a pipe dream ATM. Said I'd give it to friday night before I throw in the towel here so I'll give it a chance yet. I honestly think you will have more snow than up north. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm not sure how many of you have seen this yet (figured prob most have)....HPC has a new page....Experimental Probability of Near-Surface Temperatures at or below 32o F http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prob32/prob32.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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