wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think the EURO is the only one as far north as that with the second wave, so they're not giving it too much weight it seems. I understand, but neither office even mentions it. I just looked, from 00z to 06z Tuesday, I believe, it had 0.61 QPF with temps well below freezing. I would think that would be worth mentioning, even if an outlier, atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Not sure what to think here....rain/sleet/snow...who knows Isn 't going to be much snowpack out there, so that could keep temps a little warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GEFS are a trainwreck. A number of the members are more suppressed with the 1st wave and much further north (a la the EURO) with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like the GEM develops a line of thunderstorms over Illinois later Sunday. This is after some of these areas start out as wet snow Saturday night. That would be an interesting transition in conditions. Looks like we could make another run at 60 Sunday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Im excited to see how this system plays out but Im not really all that on board just yet. It looks like a mess. Rain/snow/sleet. Not digging this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 FWIW, the SREF is pretty far north with the first wave. It did really well with the blizzard, but I guess you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 FWIW, the SREF is pretty far north with the first wave. It did really well with the blizzard, but I guess you never know. I noticed this earlier. How reliable is it in situations like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I noticed this earlier. How reliable is it in situations like this? I think it's usually pretty accurate, relatively speaking of course. It's sort of an outlier to the other models though. If the WAA gets a little frisky you never know how far systems like this can cut. It's gonna be interesting, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GEFS are a trainwreck. A number of the members are more suppressed with the 1st wave and much further north (a la the EURO) with the 2nd wave. That's what I'm starting to think will happen the more I look into the data comparing it to WV in the eastern Pacific....although not totally on board with that yet. Given the strength just based on the WV imagery that would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think it's usually pretty accurate, relatively speaking of course. It's sort of an outlier to the other models though. If the WAA gets a little frisky you never know how far systems like this can cut. It's gonna be interesting, that's for sure. If I'm not mistaken it was the best model with the blizzard in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If I'm not mistaken it was the best model with the blizzard in the short range. the RGEM was lead dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm anxious to see what the euro brews up tonight. If it drives the low up into WI like the 12z GFS or if it looks more like itself at 12z.. I'm weenie guessing something more like 12z and even a tad farther south maybe before it tries to head NE and brings the snow/wintery line farther south to end. I'm not totally buying the 12z gfs yet or the northern solutions with a second low going way south. I'm sure I'll look like a fool after the 0z runs but so be it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm anxious to see what the euro brews up tonight. If it drives the low up into WI like the 12z GFS or if looks more like itself at 12z.. I'm weenie guessing something more like 12z and even a tad farther south maybe before it tries to head NE and brings the snow/wintery line farther south to end. I'm not totally buying the 12z gfs yet or the northern solutions.. I'm sure I'll look like a fool after the 0z runs but so be it.. It probably will go south as i am weenie guessing as well. I wonder if i am grasping for straws looking at the sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 It probably will go south as i am weenie guessing as well. I wonder if i am grasping for straws looking at the sref. I'll weenie guess along with you guys. Don't forget that in order to be a total weenie solution, it needs to keep the 2nd wave this far north, like it did at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It probably will go south as i am weenie guessing as well. I wonder if i am grasping for straws looking at the sref. I'm just talking a tad further south and the southern half of MN is in a great spot I think for round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the RGEM was lead dog. Many probably have forgotten but yeah the RGEM did pretty well with it. Only issue it had was driving the low a little too far to the NW as i believe this was the model that took it very close to lake MI and then scooted it across the MI state line with a new one taking over a little farther east. Still did better then most though. Ofcourse the GGEM/RGEM seem to do better when there is no blocking/+AO/+NAO as well. So be careful with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm just talking a tad further south and the southern half of MN is in a great spot I think for round 1. Problem is I am northern MN so it looks grim I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'll weenie guess along with you guys. Don't forget that in order to be a total weenie solution, it needs to keep the 2nd wave this far north, like it did at 12z. I'm not thinking as far north with part 2 but that's ok as long as its not to far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Many probably have forgotten but yeah the RGEM did pretty well with it. Only issue it had was driving the low a little too far to the NW as i believe this was the model that took it very close to lake MI and then scooted it across the MI state line with a new one taking over a little farther east. Still did better then most though. Ofcourse the GGEM/RGEM seem to do better when there is no blocking/+AO/+NAO as well. So be careful with it. What do you think of the sref? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Problem is I am northern MN so it looks grim I think Ahh - for some reason I thought you lived around the Mankato area or like Redwood Fall'ish Def not out of this one yet.. And you are sitting in a good spot for the 2nd storm the models have been hitting hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ahh - for some reason I thought you lived around the Mankato area. Def not out of this one yet.. And you are sitting in a good spot for the 2nd storm the models have been hitting hard. If the models cant get this storm down yet what makes you think they have any clue with the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 If the models cant get this storm down yet what makes you think they have any clue with the next one. Yeah I know.. Models have been flopping around with the track but majority of guidance still washes us out in the end. Looking at the AO/NAO graphs Harry posted unless I'm reading it wrong they go a little positive and with the Pacific a mess its just a hunch the next system that's been showing up every run will cut in a unfavorable spot for SE. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 If the models cant get this storm down yet what makes you think they have any clue with the next one. With the core of the system coming ashore right now the midnight runs should start to get a decent handle on the system. I'm kind of thinking a swath from central MN arcing through the SE Mich area will have a decent threat of Ice accums in the tenth to .25 range. DTX kind of hinted at this. The next few model runs will be interesting to watch. COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. RESULTING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK EAST...WITH MAIN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTING TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE BOTH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THEY TRACK THIS ENERGY...AND ESPECIALLY THE SURFACE LOW. 12Z EURO EVEN DEPICTS UPPER ENERGY (AND RESULTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE) REMAINING SPLIT INTO TWO CHUNKS AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO LOWER MICHIGAN IN TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY FOR MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING (GFS/NAM/GEM)...VARIANCES IN TRACK MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS (NOT INCLUDING THE EURO) MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS IS ONLY AFTER A NOTICEABLE SHIFT HAD BEEN MADE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. MOST MODELS STILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH THE WARMER GFS NOW SPREADING RAIN UP THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB BY SUNDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THE CONCERN OF UNCERTAIN PRECIP TYPE...GFS ALSO SHOWS GOOD SUPPORT FOR A SEVERAL HOURS WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM VERY CLOSELY...AND HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES START TO BECOME SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR DATA. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...ENDING PRECIPITATION AND USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What do you think of the sref? I personally don't care much for them till we are inside of 48hrs. Yeah I know.. Models have been flopping around with the track but majority of guidance still washes us out in the end. Looking at the AO/NAO graphs Harry posted unless I'm reading it wrong they go a little positive and with the Pacific a mess its just a hunch the next system that's been showing up every run will cut in a unfavorable spot for SE. WI. Ofcourse the EPO may throw a curve ball of it's own.. That can and usually does help make up for a lacking -NAO. That places the trough further into the west/rockies vs along the coast/just offshore. Helps with digging to. So instead of systems coming out into say KS/NE ( with a +EPO/+NAO ) they end up taking the route sorta like the blizzard did out into OK/TX etc. From that point it becomes a matter of the PV/AO and exactly where that is as to how hard it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I gotta get to work earlier tommorrow than usual, so I will miss tonights runs. I think missing the 0z's may not be a bad thing. Hopefully they figure out what is going on by tomorrow night, but I doubt it. Just gonna play some Phantasy Star before hitting the sack..................... Don't hit it too hard, sensitive area. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS shows (moderate) snow to ice to (light) snow here. It does bring us 2-4" before the transition to ice then an additional dusting at the end. Defintely an improvement from its last run, lol... Then the 12z NAM brought us a half inch in liquid, all of which is front end thumping snow (4-6") before pretty much ending with a glaze of ice then drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Who else but dtw did well with the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Who else but dtw did well with the 12z euro? Grand Rapids did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Who else but dtw did well with the 12z euro? northern IL/southern WI do well with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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