wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Madison and Milwaukee are in the same qpf I was wrong and probably overreacting. I was more talking about precip type, worried about a warm lake and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was wrong and probably overreacting. I was more talking about precip type, worried about a warm lake and such. Lake shouldn't hurt you in tosa.. looks like rain to start here but icing prob wouldn't be to far north. Fook wasted post 1000 before the euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks close for you in Milwaukee. Looks like the surface and 850 temp 0c line is like right over you guys. Pretty big spread though considering we are only 3-4 days away from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lake shouldn't hurt you tosa.. looks like rain to start here but icing prob wouldn't be to far north. Well, I'm like 6 miles from the lake. In order to not feel the lake's warming effects in some storms, you probably have to go about 20 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lake shouldn't hurt you in tosa.. looks like rain to start here but icing prob wouldn't be to far north. Fook wasted post 1000 before the euro tonight This Euro was still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well, I'm like 6 miles from the lake. In order to not feel the lake's warming effects in some storms, you probably have to go about 20 miles inland. Lakes pretty cold so I wouldn't worry about that much but I never like a se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 This Euro was still pretty good. Yeah a lot better than other models... who knows what tonight's euro will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah, no kidding. I suppose I'd be best served taking about a 24 hour break and checking in again tomorrow at this time, unless the thread reaches 50 pages before then. I was thinking the same thing...it's so hard not to push that refresh button though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 was i ever wrong Stebo nailed it saying the PV could interact thats why im not paid Well, nothing's set in stone yet. The fact that it's now looking like a multiple wave event certainly complicates things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Detroit is "Destroyed" by the combination of the two waves: First Wave 0.77 QPF...ice/heavy snow Second Wave: 0.82 QPF...Heavy Snow Kab, do you have YYZ EURO qpf. You don't have to break it down by ptype. Just the qpf is fine. Just by looking at the freebie RH fields it looks like I get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well, nothing's set in stone yet. The fact that it's now looking like a multiple wave event certainly complicates things. yeah its looking quite complex indeed. i just wasnt openminded to the idea that the PV could interact or be different.....which i should have been since one of my basic tenets is that the PV is poorly modeled and can have huge shifts by hundred of miles within a day or 2 of an event even. i'm not sure why i went against that, i suppose because i saw a unidirectional trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 yeah its looking quite complex indeed. i just wasnt openminded to the idea that the PV could interact or be different.....which i should have been since one of my basic tenets is that the PV is poorly modeled and can have huge shifts by hundred of miles within a day or 2 of an event even. i'm not sure why i went against that, i suppose because i saw a unidirectional trend. When you say PV interact, do you mean help amplify the low, or help push the low south some? Maybe I am having a tough time understanding if thats a pv in canada or just high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Get darn near more precip this run of the Euro than mke has had since dec. 1st.. Big Torch with the 2nd storm.. Any snow here on the ground would be short lived.. Then the arctic air pays a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 YYZ: .32 then .11...all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 yeah its looking quite complex indeed. i just wasnt openminded to the idea that the PV could interact or be different.....which i should have been since one of my basic tenets is that the PV is poorly modeled and can have huge shifts by hundred of miles within a day or 2 of an event even. i'm not sure why i went against that, i suppose because i saw a unidirectional trend. I was the same way. I didn't think the PV could play a role in this storm, except to suppress it. But now with the help of some jet coupling it looks like the models are trying to interact the PV with the lead southern stream s/w into a more northern "first" storm. Had the energy out west slowed and stayed consolidated, there'd be no PV interaction, and the suppression would have occurred. That's why I was so gung-ho about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 YYZ: .32 then .11...all snow The fact that anything reaches me from the 2nd wave is awe-inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The fact that anything reaches me from the 2nd wave is awe-inspiring. Just curious Canuck--are you close to having to payout to Stebo, Hoosier, and others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Just curious Canuck--are you close to having to payout to Stebo, Hoosier, and others? lol, don't remind them. Stebo and I went double or nothing on 55". I proposed to Hoosier/Michsnowfreak that we do the same but haven't heard back from them. I'm going to charge Chicago Storm/JoMo a 20 dollar blizzard fee for getting 1.5 feet+ from the same storm that screwed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Is that our storm with the precip coming ashore in central Cali? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Is that our storm with the precip coming ashore in central Cali? It is part of it. The low itself does not look to arrive till tomorrow afternoon at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 18Z NAM and the 12Z Euro are about as far apart as two solutions can be with the storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Oh boy.. we gota hair puller system for SEMI. I expect the worst and hope for the best! Dec 19th 2008 all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 18Z NAM and the 12Z Euro are about as far apart as two solutions can be with the storm threat. Maybe it is me but i have a hard time buying such a track with this in the position it is.. Ofcourse the model could be off with that as well. Keep in mind that with the blizzard that feature was farther to the ne in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Maybe it is me but i have a hard time buying such a track with this in the position it is.. Ofcourse the model could be off with that as well. Keep in mind that with the blizzard that feature was farther to the ne in Canada. It is just another solution--I don't really find it likely and it really lags that vortex more than the other guidance. It was also slower with the western ejecting wave. For now I am giving the 18Z NAM little credence with its large run to run changes. At least the globals--while also having issues--are a bit more consistent with the changes. That vortex is a BIG if since it can both positively influence and negatively influence development of the eventual cyclone. The NAM overall solution looks similar to 12Z--but it was more pure dumb luck since there were rather large changes in the upper height field and positioning of the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 It is just another solution--I don't really find it likely and it really lags that vortex more than the other guidance. It was also slower with the western ejecting wave. For now I am giving the NAM little credence. I hear you and agree. Still amazes me how great models do with blocking ( see many of the eastcoast storms this winter and last ) but yet the minute the blocking goes so does the performance of the models or so it seems anyways. My hunch is we see a few more swings in the days to come as well. If that is all to be believed then i really don't see a NAM or GFS part 1 ( so far to the north/nw ) type of outcome occurring but ofcourse stranger things have happened. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 TS, can you post the output for MKE? Just wanna see how they would do in terms of temps etc. Thanks in advance. sorry I was at work, storm total from both waves is 1.80" liquid. a good deal of that is snow as you can see. SUN 18Z 20-FEB 0.7 -0.7 1012 94 99 0.38 556 547 MON 00Z 21-FEB 0.2 0.2 1008 98 92 0.25 554 547 MON 06Z 21-FEB -1.3 -2.9 1009 90 91 0.15 552 545 MON 12Z 21-FEB -3.1 -4.3 1012 82 52 0.05 549 540 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.2 -6.6 1010 81 100 0.11 547 539 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -5.7 -13.1 1009 83 100 0.62 538 531 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -6.8 -15.1 1012 81 78 0.19 533 524 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -10.9 -16.0 1017 84 79 0.03 534 522 TUE 18Z 22-FEB -3.2 -14.7 1021 58 66 0.02 541 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm pulling out my rainboots here in Kenosha...just sayin it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 fwiw....big precip bullseye here on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Can we get some love down here? A lot of you have been hammered while we have nickled and dimed our way to 29 inches of snowfall this season. Can't me and Buck get some action and what I mean by that is a 6+ snowfall? You all are spoiled rotten .. My gut tells me the second wave will track more north with heaviest axis of snow being northern Ohio and southern Michigan. But it would be nice to get a surprise hit down this way before the season closes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 another poor afternoon AFD from LOT, no mention of Euro and second wave/snow. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. BOTTOM LINE IS RIGHT NOW NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION...THOUGH EVEN A BRIEF OCCURRENCE CAN CAUSE PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS. UNFORTUNATELY /OR PERHAPS FORTUNATELY/ THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF IS ALSO IN QUESTION. LATEST NAM/GFS/GEM RUNS PUSHING HEAVIEST RAIN NORTH INTO WISCONSIN BUT LOOKING AT SREF PLUMES AS WELL AS RAW GUIDANCE...STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OR SO OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. A SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE MODELS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO OR OVER AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.