A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Baby is paying a visit to, La Crosse. pops off a pretty nice storm on that baroclinic zone, a much more interesting solution than squeezing out something lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12z GFS coming in appropriately wet with the first wave....nice. first wave is further north and east as well...998mb sfc low in northeast NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The vortex is way north up into canada this GFS12z run. The key is wait for this first storm to go up into canada and for our energy to come ashore. Until that happens, a suppressed track like the gfs showed last night or a more north track the euro had are all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The vortex is way borth up into canada this GFS12z run. The key is wait for this first storm to go up into canada and for our energy to come ashore. Until that happens, a suppressed track like the gfs showed last night or a more north track the euro had are all possible. I've found the further north track on the initial slug more realistic the whole time given the open gulf flow and tight baro zone pretty far north. Beyond that is a bit of a crap shoot still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 nice to see the stronger solution but get that baby south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I can't wait to read la crosse AFD this afternoon. They thought they were confused before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I've found the further north track on the initial slug more realistic the whole time given the open gulf flow and tight baro zone pretty far north. Beyond that is a bit of a crap shoot still. I still think this all comes out together. Just another storm we have no idea on 3-4 days out. 12z GFs says screw you to those along I80 in illinois indiana ohio etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 nice to see the stronger solution but get that baby south lol i don't think it's in the cards, if you're looking for snow, what's leftover around the panhandle by hr 96 will be what to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 screwed both ways by the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 screwed both ways by the gfs We still get a 2-5" front end thumping like the NAM. But instead the heaviest amounts this time are north versus south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 pops off a pretty nice storm on that baroclinic zone, a much more interesting solution than squeezing out something lame. Period of rain than dry slut is far from interesting to me lol. I'll take a lame 5-10" of snow what a few runs of the euro showed. Second lows very rarely works out up here but maybe parts of IN and OV can get in on it. Maybe we can watch for some LES Wish the wife could get off the day after presidents day also. This would be a good Vilas cty. chase and ice fishing candidate. Maybe I'll pick moneyman up and teach him how to ice fish while he shows me how good he is at drilling holes and scooping them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Maybe the GGEM was right with a cutter looking system from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Maybe the GGEM was right with a cutter looking system from the start. We have seen no consistency with any of the models. If that vortex up north disappears, wouldn't be surprised to see this track near marquette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 We still get a 2-5" front end thumping like the NAM. But instead the heaviest amounts this time are north versus south. You must not live around Detroit if you think you're getting a 2-5" front end thumping on the gfs.. Better chance you bend over and get 2-5" where the sun don't shine. Looking closer maybe you could pull off a sloppy inch or a decent period of freezing rain or sleet before being torched? I'm out like a weenie on prom night... cya's tonight for more model mayhem but its not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You must not live around Detroit if you think you're getting a 2-5" front end thumping on the gfs.. Better chance you bend over and get 2-5" where the sun don't shine. LOL, where do you come up with this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Sweet we get screwed from both systems...Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 We have seen no consistency with any of the models. If that vortex up north disappears, wouldn't be surprised to see this track near marquette. im so sick of the models, heres my rant. absolutely cant stand them. Almost worthless past 36 hours out. And i dont want to hear anything from any of the model supporters, they have their opinions, I have mine. I enjoy the weather and climate data, models/tracking however give me ZERO enjoyment like they do so many others. Ive noticed that for some, no matter how good of a winter they are having, I mean it could be their best winter on record, or at the very least be way exceeding climo but they are never fully satisfied because of what the models showed. Im also tired of the line "models have trouble in this type of setup..." as Ive heard 10000 times over. What setup are they good in? Oh well, end rant. I will probably continue to look at the models for amusement purposes, but not til Sunday morning will I look to them for an actual forecast of the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 im so sick of the models, heres my rant. absolutely cant stand them. Almost worthless past 36 hours out. And i dont want to hear anything from any of the model supporters, they have their opinions, I have mine. I enjoy the weather and climate data, models/tracking however give me ZERO enjoyment like they do so many others. Ive noticed that for some, no matter how good of a winter they are having, I mean it could be their best winter on record, or at the very least be way exceeding climo but they are never fully satisfied because of what the models showed. Im also tired of the line "models have trouble in this type of setup..." as Ive heard 10000 times over. What setup are they good in? Oh well, end rant. I will probably continue to look at the models for amusement purposes, but not til Sunday morning will I look to them for an actual forecast of the weather. I think a lot of us who are here analyzing models get our kicks from the comedic value of the models switching around millions of times and giving these sometimes unrealistic solutions. In other words, for many, it is the model mayhem that makes it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You must not live around Detroit if you think you're getting a 2-5" front end thumping on the gfs.. Better chance you bend over and get 2-5" where the sun don't shine. Looking closer maybe you could pull off a sloppy inch before being torched I'm out like a weenie on prom night... cya's tonight for more model mayhem but its not looking good. The QPF values are based on the temperature profiles from the previous 6 hours, as that's when the precipitation itself is falling (72hr and 78hr). 850mb are below zero (I'm not worried about the other levels, which are reasonably below freezing) on those frames for Detroit, maybe not for areas SW of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Btw, how do I edit the title of the thread? I want to add more definitive dates to the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 im so sick of the models, heres my rant. absolutely cant stand them. Almost worthless past 36 hours out. And i dont want to hear anything from any of the model supporters, they have their opinions, I have mine. I enjoy the weather and climate data, models/tracking however give me ZERO enjoyment like they do so many others. Ive noticed that for some, no matter how good of a winter they are having, I mean it could be their best winter on record, or at the very least be way exceeding climo but they are never fully satisfied because of what the models showed. Im also tired of the line "models have trouble in this type of setup..." as Ive heard 10000 times over. What setup are they good in? Oh well, end rant. I will probably continue to look at the models for amusement purposes, but not til Sunday morning will I look to them for an actual forecast of the weather. They struggle with energy up north into canada. Not sure if thats because lack of sampling, or they just over or underamplify energy up there. If they cant depict where the block sets up, of course there is going to be several different solutions. I think with unsampled storms 4+ days out it's important to just to look to make sure that the storm is still there and not get caught up in precip issues, track etc. Easier said than done though I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 im so sick of the models, heres my rant. absolutely cant stand them. Almost worthless past 36 hours out. And i dont want to hear anything from any of the model supporters, they have their opinions, I have mine. I enjoy the weather and climate data, models/tracking however give me ZERO enjoyment like they do so many others. Ive noticed that for some, no matter how good of a winter they are having, I mean it could be their best winter on record, or at the very least be way exceeding climo but they are never fully satisfied because of what the models showed. Im also tired of the line "models have trouble in this type of setup..." as Ive heard 10000 times over. What setup are they good in? Oh well, end rant. I will probably continue to look at the models for amusement purposes, but not til Sunday morning will I look to them for an actual forecast of the weather. Weather tracking would be pretty boring IMO if we didn't look at the models to get an idea of what was brewing in our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think one thing can we can be pretty sure of....Michigan is going to be a battle zone of warm and cold air. I think somewhere in Michigan is going to get some bad ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm not buying anything until the snow starts flying....i've seen everything from nothing to 20 inches in the past 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The QPF values are based on the temperature profiles from the previous 6 hours, as that's when the precipitation itself is falling (72hr and 78hr). 850mb are below zero (I'm not worried about the other levels, which are reasonably below freezing) on those frames for Detroit, maybe not for areas SW of there. I have the raw data...only .13 QPF with 850 and 2m below freezing...after that it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 So the GFS wants to bring the L right through La Crosse? That means i should stay mostly liquid and then get hit with whatever wrap around...who knows.wasn't this thing through AR yesterday???? wtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 6z was a bit warm down here but a Buckeye's dream lol... Something to watch... The two wave idea is looking probable right now....12z is a bit weaker and north a bit. See what Dr. No says here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Canadian back to a cut with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I have the raw data...only .13 QPF with 850 and 2m below freezing...after that it's all rain. Yeah, like I said it's more north (closer to 5") versus south (closer to 2"). Our snowdepth at 84 hour on the GFS is 2-3" and 3-5" further north, not including our current snow. It disappears after 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If GFS and canadian are correct it is bye bye snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.