Harry Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Why? Is that a bias? Usually the euro ensembles are a little bit further se of the OP run. Becomes a problem if they are slightly north or much farther to the se as that usually means something ( OP run or ensembles ) is off or will be off and typically it is the OP run that is off. Per the individual members it seems the weaker solutions are farther to the se while all the members that show a decently developed storm ( sub 996mb ) take it farther to the nw. Basically more members ( slightly over 50% ) show a weaker low at the present time and keep it moving more from west to east vs sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Goknights needs about 20 more inches of snow...let it trend over by him No but really, this needs to trend to MSP pronto... I got my driveway clear for the first time in a month...this will cramp my style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Frank I am in spring mode golf is a bigger addiction than weather. It is way to early for that mode I know we have a lot of winter left, but this storm could easily trend north putting in slop or even rain who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 0z GFS at hr 165 has a 986 low in SE IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Also has another storm developing nearly right after that out west. Gonna be a stormy pattern it looks like. Someone could cash in a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Has 4 storms (signifcant snow storms for some areas) in the hr 150-320 time frame. Two of the storms go through or just south of Chicago. One goes to MSP and the other looks to be in C. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 0z GFS at hr 165 has a 986 low in SE IA. I think its so warm (further N) because there is a low up into canada that looks to bring in warmer air for this main storm to the south. As we know details to be ironed out later but the fact the storm is there is all you can take from these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Has 4 storms (signifcant snow storms for some areas) in the hr 150-320 time frame. Two of the storms go through or just south of Chicago. One goes to MSP and the other looks to be in C. IL. You couldn't ask for a better fantasy outlook this far in advance. Too bad it's only that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS is soaking wet here... lots of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS is soaking wet here... lots of moisture. Yep. Looking pretty rainy for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yep. Looking pretty rainy for many of us. Seems like a kinda crappy storm as the northern stream never gets involved, not much CAA into the backside for major snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Seems like a kinda crappy storm as the northern stream never gets involved, not much CAA into the backside for major snows. Yeah with the lack of any major arctic intrusions it's really hard to get too amped up about snow events over the central and southern Midwest. The parade of SW flow systems is impressive, but so far at least the cold air remains bottled well to the north. This spells frequent rain events for many of us. With so much cold air recharging over Canada it's only a matter of time before it collapses south again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow, the EURO and GFS are pretty much similar. It can't be this easy can it? HR 162 Euro has a 992 low in SE IA. HR 168: 992 LOW south of Chicago. WI/N.IL gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow, the EURO and GFS are pretty much similar. It can't be this easy can it? HR 162 Euro has a 992 low in SE IA. HR 168: 992 LOW south of Chicago. WI/N.IL gets hammered. There is one notable difference. The euro takes the low due east across IN/OH near i70 vs up along i80 ( GFS ) so most of central/S.MI/N.IL gets hammered. At 174hrs the euro has the low close to Columbus. The GFS would be mostly rain in S.WI/N.IL/S.MI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yep. Looking pretty rainy for many of us. FWIW it still seems like anyone from Madison to Milwaukee on north and west should see snow out of this system, and perhaps a significant snowstorm at that. The MKE CWA is already bumping pops to 50 percent, pretty aggressive for six days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 True wiscwx but any shift north or warmer in the upper levels and you are looking at rain or at least a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 FWIW it still seems like anyone from Madison to Milwaukee on north and west should see snow out of this system, and perhaps a significant snowstorm at that. The MKE CWA is already bumping pops to 50 percent, pretty aggressive for six days out. smells like rain for MKE and maybe even Madison to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Agreed alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 True wiscwx but any shift north or warmer in the upper levels and you are looking at rain or at least a mix. No doubt, but at this point I'm taking the average of the GFS and the Euro, with slightly more confidence in the Euro, which might actually put the heaviest snow slightly south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 smells like rain for MKE and maybe even Madison to me. If anything close to the Euro verifies, how can you be so certain? I'll trust the Euro until it gives me a reason not to. The two biggest Great Lakes snowstorms (the one in mid December and the Groundhog Day Blizzard) were stunningly consistent performances by the Euro, especially compared to the other major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If anything close to the Euro verifies, how can you be so certain? I'll trust the Euro until it gives me a reason not to. The two biggest Great Lakes snowstorms (the one in mid December and the Groundhog Day Blizzard) were stunningly consistent performances by the Euro, especially compared to the other major models. I don't have access to the euro, but it looks awfully close to rain for southern wisconsin as is. we're still pretty far out on this one, but it's nothing like the december or groundhog day blizzard which had much more impressive artic airmasses to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 I don't have access to the euro, but it looks awfully close to rain for southern wisconsin as is. we're still pretty far out on this one, but it's nothing like the december or groundhog day blizzard which had much more impressive artic airmasses to work with. I was only making the point about the reliablilty of the Euro. It was consistent with the December storm, despite the fact we got mostly rain from that storm. The Euro gives us all snow, and with the amount of moisture, it should yield good snow totals given the track. Unfortunately, I'm not confident that the storm stays where it is, and doesn't track further north. If the trends indicate that, I'll agree with you. However, the MKE grids haven't even introduced a mix or rain yet. I'll at least wait until (or if) they trend towards liquid precipitation to change my tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro is great with the better setup to the NE unlike 12z. Lose any of that blocking to the NE and the GPS Nav. is going to start chirping turn left. Chicago still in the game for sure... Just gonna need a lot of help with the ugly Pacific and last night was a good step in that direction along with there even being a storm to track still. If 12z and 0z hold serve or even look better I'll feel more optimistic we might be able to hold the battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Don't look at the 12z gfs. No cold air towork with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 pretty big differences between the 0z and 12z GFS regarding this system on monday (21st) 0z has sfc low in northwest KS while the 12z run is much faster and has it in eastern IA at the same time. both bring it to eastern IA then along the IA/WI border with just rain but 0z quite stronger with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Those would be flooding rains as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS just keeps getting warmer for Iowa. The last couple days it at least had some decent snow on the leading edge, but now it has Cedar Rapids back up to 50 degrees Sunday with all rain. I would actually prefer that because I'm ready for spring(returning plants and birds, thunderstorms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This run doesn't really deliver all snow anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 0z Euro would be interesting here...here is the raw data MON 12Z 21-FEB -0.9 -2.4 1012 85 100 0.30 554 545 MON 18Z 21-FEB -1.5 -1.4 1005 87 100 0.29 549 546 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -1.5 -0.3 999 91 78 0.45 538 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Man, even with that track, GFS delivers a pretty decent thump of sleet and freezing rain here. CAD showing up on the models, even the "warm" ones. Plus, the H5 patten on the GFS, would tend to promote a further south track: Main trough is still out west. Only a little kink of energy ejects out, which would argue against a wound up solution as it tends to deamplify as it runs into the mean ridge. Plus, we've got ridging over Greenland and a couple of vortexs just to the south of that block. I would argue the 12z GFS depiction is probably as far north as a system could go in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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