Ajdos Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 ROFL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Exactly. Its happened with just about ever winter storm this season. Just as GFS agrees ECMWF is like "Jay/kay" and does it's own thing, then everything else eventually trends to it. Yeah this winter has been tough no doubt. Op trends and even ensemble mean trends have meant little to nothing at times--especially when the Polar Vortex has been in the game. This forecast is so challenging since it has 2 distinct moving parts and an amped baro zone. Very strong -PNA is showing its teeth. Not always the same for New England and the Midwest/plains...but its been something many of are talking about in the NE subforum. Further north and warmer makes sense. I could get rain here...Euro is mostly snow...but I've been saying that my gut says ptype issue is going to be more the concern than whiffing this to the south. It could whiff south if the timing is right, but this storm has so much wanting to push it north that its hard to ignore even when the models want to try and crush it south. I agree--the western trough is going to have a lot of influence--and I don't see that small vortex crushing this S unless the 0Z GFS scores a coup and the western trough comes in two weak chunks. Given the amped baro zone--even a "suppressed" solution can result in some pretty extreme frontogenesis and even minor low level cyclonic development resulting in a N lifting frontal zone. A weak first wave is possible--but that is the only way this is weak, suppressed, and S. I am not tossing the small threat for a full blown cyclone--although that threat is diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 6z GFS is wetter and showing the second wave blowing up fast...where's Hoosier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 LOT better forecaster, better write up. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON 00Z RUNS IN HANDLING THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING SUGGESTS MOSTLY LIQUID ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THINGS MAY GET COMPLICATED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN CANADA PUSHES AN INCREASINGLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SWD ACROSS NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WINDY...RAW NE FLOW WITH FALLING TEMPS AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE COLDER AIR. GFS DOES BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. MERZLOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'll take 06z GFS for a thousand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 So 21.2" of snow falling in 6 hours. I can say the 2010-2011 winter would get an A+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ for that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I will admit though, I would be VERY pissed if there were two narrow heavy bands of snows verus one large area and then I'm screwed in between them (ala 06z GFS). And can we keep politics out of the weather threads and in the politics section? Thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wow I see that I woke to way more model incosistency than we had yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 moneyman really screwed the pooch derailing this thread. Anyways, looks more and more like the initial slug this weekend will be liquid for anyone south of Wisconsin with the question then turning to what if any development occurs with the second piece. The 6z GFS took a good jump north and stronger with action compared to 0z and given climo, i expect more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Alek- GFS evens shows liquid here, for at least part of the storm...looks like it should still accumulate some snow. Plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Alek- GFS evens shows liquid here, for at least part of the storm...looks like it should still accumulate some snow. Plenty of time for changes. yeah first slug looks warm and i don't see much reason why it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Alek- GFS evens shows liquid here, for at least part of the storm...looks like it should still accumulate some snow. Plenty of time for changes. looks like 13" on 6z gfz and prob 5-10 on Euro.. Who knows what today will bring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 i'm riding the 0z nocraps for one last hurrah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Shows 7.5" of mostly 5:1-8:1 ratio snow/rapl here on 6z... snowrapl, snpl and fzdz for good measure.. That's one for the plow truck and not my back-n-balls. QPF 1.41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I will admit though, I would be VERY pissed if there were two narrow heavy bands of snows verus one large area and then I'm screwed in between them (ala 06z GFS). And can we keep politics out of the weather threads and in the politics section? Thank you!!! I fear this may happen unfortunetly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Bow- Don't count on the snow plowing to happen. Maybe one path and they'll call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Could be slop fest frank. NAM looks the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Careful using 850 temps here again. That's one very nasty arctic dome being modeled. Tons of confluence aloft near the Canadian border and a PV lobe supplying the cold. There is going to be more model mayhem with respect to how this is handled. If the vort decides to come out in pieces like most of the modeling is suggesting, this suggests more FZRA/IP is possible than modeled. Also, that super shallow cold air will be something to contend with. We're already seeing the "squashed" or elongated appearance to the SLP as it makes its way east. Most of the snow is going to be up in WI/Nrn IA and MN, but I'm a little concerned about a band of moderate to heavy ice south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Bow- Don't count on the snow plowing to happen. Maybe one path and they'll call it a day Probably all I'll get in the drive unless we move the cars around. Roads will be fine as salt works wonders in the temps being shown and MKE isn't shy with it.. By 11am after the Blizzard and it snowed until 5 or 6am our city boys & gals had the roads cleared.. Just an incredible job they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like a Snow to Rain Scenario for Southern Half of Lower Michigan according to 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 North woods would love the NAM and they need the snow more than me. I'd be down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like a Snow to Rain Scenario for Southern Half of Lower Michigan according to 12Z NAM It looks more lihe drizzle than rain as the dry slot moves in judging from the radar reflectivity. I could live with a 3-6" (3" north, 6" south) front end thumping them drizzle/dry slotting to end things. Of course judging from all that energy being held back the NAM only shows the first of several waves of preicpitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 well if the 00z euro is right, ill be very wrong serves me right for getting into a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 now we wonder what the second wave hanging back in the southwest would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 There are so many thoughts and maps running through my head, so does anyone have a quick and easy way to recap? It seems there are two different waves of possible snow/sleet/mix, at least on the latest GFS. Is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 There are so many thoughts and maps running through my head, so does anyone have a quick and easy way to recap? It seems there are two different waves of possible snow/sleet/mix, at least on the latest GFS. Is this correct? To be honest it will be up in the air until atleast saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 There are so many thoughts and maps running through my head, so does anyone have a quick and easy way to recap? It seems there are two different waves of possible snow/sleet/mix, at least on the latest GFS. Is this correct? My fear now again like a few days ago is we're stuck in no mans land.. First wave or storm is mostly rain and if there is a 2nd low its a whiff south. 12z GFS really cutting.. Maybe would help areas just to the south or east if there is another low to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12z GFS coming in appropriately wet with the first wave....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Baby is paying a visit to, La Crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 So the GFS has went from a big rainstorm to a heavy snow storm, to now a heavy rain maybe sleet icestorm in southern minnesota. Consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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