kab2791 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 or http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=fr Better yet: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 http://webpages.char...els/models.html thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The models never learn. You do not go southeast with northern energy in that kind of upper loft flow. It was the same "error" that lead to the surprise snowstorm with the leftover system from the February 1-2 storm. I'm not following.... do you think that the southern vort max is stronger, the northern stream is weaker, or that the ejection from the western trough is to shallow? 500 mb I don't get what you are saying, which features are going to lead to a stronger ejection of the southern vort ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The northern stream is to far southeast and strong. The models have a horrible time with this feature winter in and out. By 120hrs the GFS and GGEM are completely lost. It causes the sourthern s/w to be "weak" and less aggressive than it should. The energy discharge for the plains should be strong with that progressive flow aloft. I do agree partially with you for once. Models have had issues with that feature--and they have had issues with these northern stream vortex features all winter--and the latest runs are by no means set in stone. That said--suppression happens at times--and even in a suppressed environment--this will likely be an impressive event in terms of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The northern stream is to far southeast and strong. The models have a horrible time with this feature winter in and out. By 120hrs the GFS and GGEM are completely lost. It causes the sourthern s/w to be "weak" and less aggressive than it should. The energy discharge for the plains should be strong with that progressive flow aloft. ok I just wanted to check you weren't going with the S/W would be stronger just because, that northern stream is by no means resolved but i'm going with the trends right now, I think that the 12z euro is a good track to stick with right now. NAM is way to far north in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Not alot of talk about the teleconnections with this storm. I would assume the NAO is going neutral to negative as this first late week storm goes into canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12z Euro track doesn't work either. Same problem. so you basically are going with a 00z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well after reading, Baroclinic's and Will's thoughts I will put the premature weenie ejaculating white towel away.. Seems they're not buying the suppressed look and 2 part sysyem hook line and sinker just yet so that's good enough for me to give it until friday night before crowning the euro was right already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 EURO is looking better for snow lovers through hr 78. Shouldn't be as suppressed as 12z. Blocking is a good bit farther north so far and the low is developing a tad farther north. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well after reading, Baroclinic's and Will's thoughts I will put the premature weenie ejaculating white towel away.. Seems they're not buying the suppressed look and 2 part sysyem hook line and sinker just yet so that's good enough for me to give it until friday night before crowning the euro was right already. btw i'm personally going with a further suppressed storm, I think that this ends up being a blend of 00z gfs/12z euro, and it is south south baby. Not that the northern folks don't see snow just the main storm will be way south like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 EURO is looking better for snow lovers through hr 78. Shouldn't be as suppressed as 12z. Blocking is a good bit farther north so far and the low is developing a tad farther north. Thoughts? just from the crappy free sites it certainly seems like the southern stream is a bit broader and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 HR 84: 998 ish low in E. COL. 12z at 96 had a 1004 low in SW COL. Blocking is probably 50ish miles farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 seems like at 84 the euro has the looks of coming in hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 EURO is looking better for snow lovers through hr 78. Shouldn't be as suppressed as 12z. Blocking is a good bit farther north so far and the low is developing a tad farther north. Thoughts? It's pretty clear it's coming north(at least the lead wave...if there are two.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 EURO is hot for snow lovers. HR 90: 996 low in N.KS heavy snow from IA, S.MN into S. WI and N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 btw i'm personally going with a further suppressed storm, I think that this ends up being a blend of 00z gfs/12z euro, and it is south south baby. Not that the northern folks don't see snow just the main storm will be way south like the gfs. 12Z Euro is too far S--0Z already more inline and farther N with its 12Z mean and doesn't have a weak low level cyclone like the 18Z NAM did/12Z Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 +8C 850's up to Chicago by 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 suppressed to rain here lol.. see what happens later if we can flip to some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 HR 96 is a broad 1000 LOW. MOD-HVY precip in S. WI and looks to be rain maybe in N. IL (hard to tell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 EURO goes from about .1 qpf to nearly .8-.9 inch QPF (all snow here) in one run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 +8C 850's up to Chicago by 96hrs. LOL. Not surprising given the lack of cold air. Back to hoping for thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 well the euro sped up a little and blocking more favorable position like I wanted this afternoon.. Just a little to much of a good thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12Z Euro is too far S--0Z already more inline and farther N with its 12Z mean and doesn't have a weak low level cyclone like the 18Z NAM did/12Z Euro did. Ya the 12z is a bit to far south but not by much, compared to a few days ago we are way south, I'm not sure what you guys think, but I don't think the center low ever goes north of a dsm to Chicago line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Blocking was in a much better spot this run compared to 12z, hence the farther north track. You usually don't see this big of a shft from the EURO though, espically under hr 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ya the 12z is a bit to far south but not by much, compared to a few days ago we are way south, I'm not sure what you guys think, but I don't think the center low ever goes north of a dsm to Chicago line. Ah ok--I didn't know you were talking about 3-4 days ago. The way you worded your other comment though you made it sound like it would continue to head farther S. Both the vortex and the ejecting wave are still big question marks so nothing can be locked in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Blocking was in a much better spot this run compared to 12z, hence the farther north track. You usually don't see this big of a shft from the EURO though, espically under hr 100. In this pattern it can be expected. Don't be surprised to see big changes still with both the northern vortex and the western trough and the resulting eventual solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ah ok--I didn't know you were talking about 3-4 days ago. The way you worded your other comment though you made it sound like it would continue to head farther S. Both the vortex and the ejecting wave are still big question marks so nothing can be locked in yet. Ya.. no i think we are getting pretty close, I could see us going a bit north but nothing like what we had 3-4 days ago. I think that's my problem is i'm referencing the low that was going into southern MN a few days ago, yes the storm will be south of that and won't ever touch WI or MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like it's back to a Minnesota to Michigan snow threat. Definitely makes sense given the lack of arctic air and climo. Some additional seasonal snowfall would have been nice, but I'll appreciate the rains washing the salt and grime off of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS spread at 108 is large--especially with the placement of the northern vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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