Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah, I guess it's a bit of a funny word. Don't know if that made it the post of the day though But I'll accept the honor anyway. post of the day was Bowme comparing sex and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 .75-1 inch qpf across N. IL and N. IN on the 0z GFS with the first wave. Main storm hammers the northern MO area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Interesting lead wave on the 0z GFS, but the main storm is going to be way suppressed. I'll take this scenario too, let that second piece slide south, most of southern MI would get hit pretty hard on this run with Ice/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 post of the day was Bowme comparing sex and the Euro. Nah Chi Storm's asking of Moneyman if he was a pitcher or catcher was the clear winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'll take this scenario too, let that second piece slide south, most of southern MI would get hit pretty hard on this run with Ice/snow Is Muskegon included in that, or is it another one where we're right on the edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'll take this scenario too, let that second piece slide south, most of southern MI would get hit pretty hard on this run with Ice/snow Well, hopefully the trend south stops. I'll defer to you mets and your expertise (ORH, Baro, yourself) but I'm not totally at ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ji creaming his pants over 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Buckeye FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well, hopefully the trend south stops. I'll defer to you mets and your expertise (ORH, Baro, yourself) but I'm not totally at ease. Well I was talking about the southern extent of the vortex on the Euro well into MN/Great Lakes--not the fact it was pretty beefy overall. I am not tossing any potential solutions at this moment. That northern vortex has been tough all winter long--hence why I mention it could be a potential cyclone or a suppressed frontal wave event. Still think the Euro is too far S--but it isn't out to lunch with the overall height field config. 0Z GFS lends it credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well, hopefully the trend south stops. I'll defer to you mets and your expertise (ORH, Baro, yourself) but I'm not totally at ease. Yea I don't buy the GFS one bit. The storm may end up suppressed but the fact that the first wave is allowed that far north leads me to not believe the second wave will not be as as supressed as the models show.. Definitly a touchy scenario with that vortex to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ji creaming his pants over 132. GFS has to be wrong with this scenario, it shows snow for OH and Ji, seasonal trends say no to both J/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 00z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MON 00Z 21-FEB 11.4 7.9 1007 99 66 0.05 563 557 MON 06Z 21-FEB 7.3 5.9 1008 95 98 0.14 560 554 MON 12Z 21-FEB -1.6 3.3 1013 90 93 0.11 558 547 MON 18Z 21-FEB -2.6 1.2 1017 86 78 0.04 555 542 :TUE 00Z 22-FEB -5.1 -2.5 1015 96 96 0.38 553 541 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -8.2 -5.9 1017 97 98 0.58 548 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lol I can't wait for the LOT afd after this run of the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Comparing the 21z SREFS mean H5 pattern 87 to the 0z GFS H5 pattern valid the same time, the SREFS would likely not be as suppressed with the main storm. I'm basing this on the fact that the ul trough is much sharper and further west (slower to eject?) and the northern vortex is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Buckeye FTW... That looks way too far south, does Southern Wisconsin even get decent QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That looks way too far south, does Southern Wisconsin even get decent QPF? Total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That looks way too far south, does Southern Wisconsin even get decent QPF? Remember, whether southern Wisconsin gets hit is not the litmus test as to whether the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Remember, whether southern Wisconsin gets hit is not the litmus test as to whether the model is correct. I know, but considering the GFS was so far north we were getting rain yesterday, and now it has us on the northern fringe of snow, it's hard to trust that type of flip-flopping, regardless of whether MBY gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 EVERYONE (except most of Minnesota) did well on this run. I can definitely live with the GFS's crazy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GGEM looks like it's going to be quasi-suppressed with both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Not saying the GFS/Euro are correct but what a potential huge change in the pattern. A few days ago it looked like atleast western GLC's with this storm and the one after it. Now they both have a suppressed look. Just shows what a little blocking can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 ggem sucks for MN now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS stopped donging me.... I'll see what the euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Amazing how superior the Euro is at sniffing things out. GFS shouldn't even be taken serious more than 72 hrs out. Its almost as worthless as the NAM and probably is. Good call, ssc! Things I suppose could change but it looks like we won't have a left turner after all... Now its how far south the main storm can get washed out to the SE. No sense staying up for the Euro.. Dr No has spoken for a big storm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Where do you get the GGEM out to 240 hours right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Where do you get the GGEM out to 240 hours right now? http://webpages.charter.net/wxalan/models/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 can't believe i'm saying this but going to anyway...the gaps sniffed this out yesterday on it's 18z run and euro followed at 0z & other models following on tonights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 can't believe i'm saying this but going to anyway...the gaps sniffed this out yesterday on it's 18z run and euro followed at 0z & other models following on tonights run. i believe that the ukmet has been south from the beg. Might be the winner this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 http://webpages.char...els/models.html or http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=fr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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