Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Today was beautiful outside. Nearly 50 degrees, sunny skies. Snow is finally going away. We've had enough snow. I guess this past week got me into spring mode, and with the pitchers/catchers reporting in Arizona this week etc, I just had enough snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 How about a tight gradient where you get 2" and 15 miles south of you gets 15"? FDL gets 75 degrees and sunny, while all around us get 24 inches of snow. That sounds better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Um, we got the JMA too! That has got to count for something... Its normally a bad sign when the JMA is on your side lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Today was beautiful outside. Nearly 50 degrees, sunny skies. Snow is finally going away. We've had enough snow. I guess this past week got me into spring mode, and with the pitchers/catchers reporting in Arizona this week etc, I just had enough snow. I'm not sure why you're excited about baseball season... The Brewers are going to suck like usual. By the way, do you like to pitch or catch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Horizontal deformation occured with the last storm that dumped 20+ in OK and ARK? It looks like even if its not supressed, the west to east movement would still yield a more horizontal band. That's details that will be ironed out later but it indeed looks impressive. What exactly is forcing this vortex south? That was some extreme frontogenesis--but a different setup with that storm. This storm will potentially feature more large scale low level deformation and a long and well defined frontal zone. Should that occur--the wave would propagate over the front and would feature some impressive banding--this is dependent on the vortex positioning and cold air placement. The developing vortex farther S on the Euro op and 18Z NAM had an embedded S/W in the southern portion of the PV which incited weak cyclogenesis and stronger cold air advection/amplification of the PV farther S. These embedded waves are hard for the models to predict. They can amplify fast under the right conditions. I had posted this before--while not 100% valid here--the same thoughts can apply. http://www.cimms.ou....tzsanders02.pdf Here is the NAM 18Z--you can see the amplifying wave (circled) and even an upstream ridge developing in response. This results in stronger backside CAA and a deeper/farther S vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 JMA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm not sure why you're excited about baseball season... The Brewers are going to suck like usual. By the way, do you like to pitch or catch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm not sure why you're excited about baseball season... The Brewers are going to suck like usual. By the way, do you like to pitch or catch? Although I think the brew crew have a shot at making the playoffs this year, they making good moves especially shoring up the rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 By the way, do you like to pitch or catch? I'm a pitcher in my local city rec team btw. I throw about 78-82 mph. I know. Big league material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm a pitcher in my local city rec team btw. I throw about 78-82 mph. I know. Big league material. That one went over your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 How can we forget? Watching the radar was brutal. To much green and no white...(sounds like a MSU home game ) Oh it snowed a lot, hell it snowed for 36-hours straight at DTW (Apr 23-25) downright amazing for late April, the thing is...while the accumulation was an amazing sight for the time of year, can you imagine what the accumulation would have been had the exact setup occurred a few months earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That one went over your head I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm not sure why you're excited about baseball season... The Brewers are going to suck like usual. By the way, do you like to pitch or catch? epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I know what he means. Just saying that I am actually a pitcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think what the 18z GFS showed is what will happen. An I-80 track seems reasonable right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Oh it snowed a lot, hell it snowed for 36-hours straight at DTW (Apr 23-25) downright amazing for late April, the thing is...while the accumulation was an amazing sight for the time of year, can you imagine what the accumulation would have been had the exact setup occurred a few months earlier? EPIC! it would have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Considering the input from some of the mets, my 70/30 EURO/GGEM blend might be giving too much credence to the EURO. I won't revise it but I still think the GFS is too far north and I'm going down with that ship. i would defintely stick with the euro out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think what the 18z GFS showed is what will happen. An I-80 track seems reasonable right now Big disappointment potential with this one. Best to just sit back and watch aloofly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Big disappointment potential with this one. Best to just sit back and watch aloofly. ^^^Post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 i would defintely stick with the euro out this way. I don't think I would in this setup. Maybe you read some of our thoughts in the NE subforum as you visit us often. The long wave pattern will do everything in its power to amplify this system...only a well placed vortex via a so-so NAO block is stopping it....but that is a very tedious setup. It could easily morph slightly and you see a much more amplified solution. Maybe the Euro nailed the exact setup, definitely possible as its the best model there is...but at this time range I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 At this particular moment, virtually all the solutions would give Milwaukee 6+ inches, except maybe the Euro's moisture starved system, so I can't complain. Hopefully the sampling won't dramatically alter the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 ^^^Post of the day. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 ?? Like you said, ths storm has big disappointment potential and we should just sit back and watch (I AGREE). Also, I thought your use of the word "aloofy" was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Like you said, ths storm has big disappointment potential and we should just sit back and watch (I AGREE). Also, I thought your use of the word "aloofy" was funny. Yeah, I guess it's a bit of a funny word. Don't know if that made it the post of the day though But I'll accept the honor anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Sad...but true somehow someway Detroit avoids every major Snow event.. We are the KINGS of 2-4 inches and the mysterious sleet that cuts down on totals or massive drysloting. Id say we are the KINGS of 2-4 and 3-6" events. Last year on eus me and some of the ne climo guys were crunching numbers and while I dont remember the exacts, the gist was that in 4-6" events Detroit crushes east coast cities like nyc/dc but then in the 10"+ events its Detroit thats getting crushed. Weve had so much snowfall and even decent snow depth in recent years that to ME its not an issue, but it would be nice to get that monkey off our back. Most winter storms have sleet or dryslot no matter where you go, its certainly not a SE MI issue (if anything we seem to suffer from sleet less than many places, though that was our achilles heal Feb 1st), its just plain bad luck. Weve had many storms the past decade that were the perfect track, but ended up in that usual 8-12" range, be it ratios, dryslot, whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I don't think I would in this setup. Maybe you read some of our thoughts in the NE subforum as you visit us often. The long wave pattern will do everything in its power to amplify this system...only a well placed vortex via a so-so NAO block is stopping it....but that is a very tedious setup. It could easily morph slightly and you see a much more amplified solution. Maybe the Euro nailed the exact setup, definitely possible as its the best model there is...but at this time range I'm skeptical. i know what you're saying Will, but every model has trended towards the euro with the idea of suppression or at least the PV dictating in the northeasr. i can only speak for my backyard and im talking about the eastern lakes and new england here, and based on the pattern the models are showing, id be shocked if it can amplify into the flow in quebec and the maritimes. and i dont see much going in the other direction on any models. of course we are still 6 days out so that can change. id still be very intrested if i lived anyhwere along or near I-90 and that includes southern ontario and toronto. as for up here and NNE, im not really interested at this time nor am i hopeful. there is a block weak as it is, and a PV, thats more than enough to take us out of the game up here, unless there are signifiant chages in the upper air forecast. i guess thats not 'going with the euro' but i agree with SSC that the GFS is likely too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS says score one for the EURO this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS is much stronger and beefier with the northern vortex. Not nearly as far S as the Euro--but it looks much different than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 0z GFS goes with a two wave scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Interesting lead wave on the 0z GFS, but the main storm is going to be way suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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