SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 We had a dream track in April 2005 that would have brought us 20-36 inches across the area but there was a catch...............it was to late in the year! So it can happen, when it does there always a catch How can we forget? Watching the radar was brutal. To much green and no white...(sounds like a MSU home game ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Not 100% sure if Indianapolis has or has not had a 15"+event. The only event I can think of that may have been flirting with 15" occured in 2005 Indy has had only two 15"+ events in their history. The last being the Jan 1978 blizzard. Detroit (and St. Louis) are also the only cities with the longest standing biggest snowstorm record, at least in the Midwest. Indy has to be in the running. Below is their top 5 biggest snowstorms in recorded history. A pathetic list it is...has to be the worst top 5 list of any city along/north of I-70 in the Midwest. 1) 16.1"...2/16-18/1910 2) 15.5"...1/25-27/1978 3) 13.2"...2/27-29/1984 4) 13.0"...12/19-21/1973 5) 12.8"...1/2-4/1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 How can we forget? Watching the radar was brutal. To much green and no white...(sounds like a MSU home game ) April 23-25th 2005... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 April 23-25th 2005... Thank DMC..My memory is shot... I should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I agree. Someone said something to me today to effect of they're glad winter's over. I said, "Psssstttt.....It's still February." I hope it dumps a cement mixer load across our area. That's all I've heard in the past week..."winter's over". Heh, people are truly dumb about weather. Of course I deal with the nut job golfers who swear that it usually hits 60º+ at least 15 times every winter and they're out playing in it. This winter has been a bitter pill for them. lol, I love the idea of spite snow. Damn straight. There's also a troll or two on this forum that'd I love to see their early spring hopes dashed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thank DMC..My memory is shot... I should be East Lansing will do that to you I wish there was a map of total QPF with that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 There was a "dream" track storm that rolled through a few years back in mid/late April but the cold air was no where to found. It killed the weenie in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 East Lansing will do that to you I wish there was a map of total QPF with that storm... How about the April 2009 storm...Talk about a heavy/wet snow. Compacted so fast. Big time packing snow..9 inches shrank to 3 inches in a matter of 6 hours. sloppy mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 NAM looks GFSish through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 NAM looks GFSish through 84. Probably would not be like the EURO, although it depends on what happens with that vortex over Hudson Bay beyond 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Probably would not be like the EURO, although it depends on what happens with that vortex over Hudson Bay beyond 84 hours. If it moves south obviously the storm will be supressed a bit but what are the likely results if the vortex moves a bit east or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Kinna like I do the first viewing of a new porno. 6 hrs later when you replay its just not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 0z NAM/18z GFS at the same time. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 0z NAM/18z GFS at the same time. NAM GFS That's pretty good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Probably would not be like the EURO, although it depends on what happens with that vortex over Hudson Bay beyond 84 hours. Euro looks suspect with the positioning of that northern stream vortex developing as far S as it does. The mean is not as bullish as the op--and closer to the other global guidance. NAM 0Z did a flip-flop from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro looks suspect with the positioning of that northern stream vortex developing as far S as it does. The mean is not as bullish as the op--and closer to the other global guidance. NAM 0Z did a flip-flop from 18z. You are bursting the OKK/LAF bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro looks suspect with the positioning of that northern stream vortex developing as far S as it does. The mean is not as bullish as the op--and closer to the other global guidance. NAM 0Z did a flip-flop from 18z. Yea the vortex is a bit more north compared to the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro looks suspect with the positioning of that northern stream vortex developing as far S as it does. The mean is not as bullish as the op--and closer to the other global guidance. NAM 0Z did a flip-flop from 18z. You made an appearance! About time! Overall, which model do you think is the best right now? GFS, GGEM, or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro looks suspect with the positioning of that northern stream vortex developing as far S as it does. The mean is not as bullish as the op--and closer to the other global guidance. NAM 0Z did a flip-flop from 18z. I'll to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You made an appearance! About time! Overall, which model do you think is the best right now? GFS, GGEM, or Euro? I had a mini-vacation to see friends, etc. in MN/ND before heading to Husker-land. I haven't glanced at guidance for 5 days now--so I am still in catchup mode. I will wait for the 0Z stuff to roll in before making judgments since I am so far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro looks suspect with the positioning of that northern stream vortex developing as far S as it does. The mean is not as bullish as the op--and closer to the other global guidance. NAM 0Z did a flip-flop from 18z. Here are the SREFS H5 at 87. On average, it looks like the vortex either scoots east enough or is far enough north that these members would not produce EURO like suppression beyond 87 hours. I was reading the NE thread, and ORH_Will seems to agree with you about the mishandling of the northern stream on the OP EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You are bursting the OKK/LAF bubble. Eh, there's not much of a bubble to burst, right? It's Euro or bust for us, though that's usually a good one to have in your corner I guess, but we're still a ways out from the event. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Eh, there's not much of a bubble to burst, right? It's Euro or bust for us, though that's usually a good one to have in your corner I guess, but we're still a ways out from the event. We'll see... Um, we got the JMA too! That has got to count for something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Considering the input from some of the mets, my 70/30 EURO/GGEM blend might be giving too much credence to the EURO. I won't revise it but I still think the GFS is too far north and I'm going down with that ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Here are the SREFS H5 at 87. On average, it looks like the vortex either scoots east enough or is far enough north that these members would not produce EURO like suppression beyond 87 hours. I was reading the NE thread, and ORH_Will seems to agree with you about the mishandling of the northern stream on the OP EURO. Considering the input from some of the mets, my 70/30 EURO/GGEM blend might be giving too much credence to the EURO. I won't revise it but I still think the GFS is too far north and I'm going down with that ship. Some level of confluence and northern suppression will exist--no doubt. How much still remains to be clear--and that will make the difference between a large cyclone and a strong frontal wave event with significant banding. One thing is for certain--the baroclinic zone in the low levels is impressive and it will be a hefty event even suppressed since that will aid in horizontal deformation and frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Please go south. The snow is finally melting away. It's baseball time now. Screw snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Please go south. The snow is finally melting away. It's baseball time now. Screw snow. No on both counts! It is still basketball season, and considering it's mid-February, it will be winter for another month or so. But you can hope for whatever you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Some level of confluence and northern suppression will exist--no doubt. How much still remains to be clear--and that will make the difference between a large cyclone and a strong frontal wave event with significant banding. One thing is for certain--the baroclinic zone in the low levels is impressive and it will be a hefty event even suppressed since that will aid in horizontal deformation and frontogenesis. Horizontal deformation occured with the last storm that dumped 20+ in OK and ARK? It looks like even if its not supressed, the west to east movement would still yield a more horizontal band. That's details that will be ironed out later but it indeed looks impressive. What exactly is forcing this vortex south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Please go south. The snow is finally melting away. It's baseball time now. Screw snow. Coming from you, this is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Please go south. The snow is finally melting away. It's baseball time now. Screw snow. How about a tight gradient where you get 2" and 15 miles south of you gets 15"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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