SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Here you go...This Video perfectly explains the Groundhog Day Blizzard. We all knew in the back of our heads that storm would somehow screw us in SEMI and sure enough....Well watch this vid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean at 120hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Here you go...This Video perfectly explains the Groundhog Day Blizzard. We all knew in the back of our heads that storm would somehow screw us in SEMI and sure enough....Well watch this vid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It'd be nice if baroclinic instability would be so kind to give us his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Here you go...This Video perfectly explains the Groundhog Day Blizzard. We all knew in the back of our heads that storm would somehow screw us in SEMI and sure enough....Well watch this vid.. Lol I just checked out a few other videos of that guy.. He is great at those videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean at 120hrs: I can sense you're slowly getting more invested in a possible snow storm. Guess you don't have much of a choice since chances of severe weather are getting flushed down like turds in the Chicago River. LMAO @ that vid.. I don't think josh is going to find it to funny though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Here you go...This Video perfectly explains the Groundhog Day Blizzard. We all knew in the back of our heads that storm would somehow screw us in SEMI and sure enough....Well watch this vid.. That's a keeper. Applies here too........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I can sense you're slowly getting more invested in a possible snow storm. Guess you don't have much of a choice since chances of severe weather are getting flushed down like turds in the Chicago River. Happens every St. Patty's day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Who will win this battle? 12z GFS vs EURO GFS MON 00Z 21-FEB 12.2 6.7 1008 98 41 0.01 565 558 MON 06Z 21-FEB 11.5 6.5 1005 97 62 0.02 563 559 MON 12Z 21-FEB 12.0 7.5 1001 98 67 0.03 556 555 MON 18Z 21-FEB 13.5 4.8 1003 85 51 0.13 551 548 near 60 vs EURO MON 00Z 21-FEB 6.4 3.0 1013 86 87 0.04 560 549 MON 06Z 21-FEB -0.3 -0.2 1017 67 86 0.06 559 545 MON 12Z 21-FEB -4.9 -2.7 1019 43 99 0.05 557 542 MON 18Z 21-FEB -3.7 -3.9 1018 52 97 0.02 557 543 light rain to snow.. LOL What I am pointing out is system 1... See the cold vs warm difference??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well whoever sees snow, they're going to have a fun time. That impressive temperature gradient should yield some great vertical forcing, if not slantwise convection. This may also be a good sleet/freezing rain producer. Also, the 540m thickness line (1000mb-500mb) will not be the rain/snow line this time around, but the 1300m (1000mb-850mb) thickness line will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Happens every St. Patty's day.. Should add a little gold in there too in celebration of the Packers. pack of cheese head boats should dump a few barrels of gold dye in there.. that would be a sweet prank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Bow- 18z GFS sent a shiver down my spine, a solid foot maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Don't know whats worse? Winning the lotto in a dream or seeing this at 100hrs out! Not sure how long this will hold..0z will be rather interesting. A couple of poster made a mention on how the Dec 19th 2008 storm and this storm mirror each other. You guys are correct and on to something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Rooting on the Euro solution obviously for MBY, but also partly because I want to see the reaction of the local people here who think that winter is over. And a lot of them do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 there has been some chatter of this system looking like the Dec 18-19th 2008 snowstorm. Here is the surface map for the above date. Looks very close to what the 18z GFS at 100 hrs+ is. Something to ponder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Im ready to abandon my wife for a few days..Its the middle of the month. Shes more moody than the GFS. Rooting on the Euro solution obviously for MBY, but also partly because I want to see the reaction of the local people here who think that winter is over. And a lot of them do. I agree. Someone said something to me today to effect of they're glad winter's over. I said, "Psssstttt.....It's still February." I hope it dumps a cement mixer load across our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Rooting on the Euro solution obviously for MBY, but also partly because I want to see the reaction of the local people here who think that winter is over. And a lot of them do. I agree. Someone said something to me today to effect of they're glad winter's over. I said, "Psssstttt.....It's still February." I hope it dumps a cement mixer load across our area. lol, I love the idea of spite snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I can sense you're slowly getting more invested in a possible snow storm. Guess you don't have much of a choice since chances of severe weather are getting flushed down like turds in the Chicago River. Don't really have a choice I guess... I would still rather have another shot at 60F on Monday, but if I can get another 4.8" to bag another 50" season, we might as well get that out of the way now instead of in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A couple of poster made a mention on how the Dec 19th 2008 storm and this storm mirror each other. You guys are correct and on to something.. I was thinking the exact same thing, but I was going to refrain from mentioning it since everyone hates analogs so much. That one BTW trended southward versus northward. It did show up once at the CIPS for the 120hr 12z GFS (number 7). http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I suppose i deserve this: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I suppose i deserve this: http://wxcaster4.com...-SNOW_120HR.gif Oh lord the clown maps have reappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Never doubt the clown maps,,,they did good with chicago end of the world storm feb groundhogs day 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I suppose i deserve this: http://wxcaster4.com...-SNOW_120HR.gif I presume there would be a band of fzra along the southern boundary around I-80. Shifts of a few miles can make a lot of difference in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Cutoff is huge on the clown map...any shift south means big business for the duders in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Never doubt the clown maps,,,they did good with chicago end of the world storm feb groundhogs day 2011 Hey I'll take my foot of fictitious clown snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That IS the clown map for the GFS, which has been kind of a circus for this storm so far if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was thinking the exact same thing, but I was going to refrain from mentioning it since everyone hates analogs so much. That one BTW trended southward versus northward It did show up once at the CIPS for the 120hr 12z GFS (number 7). http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new Very nice link. Nice that you can see what the teleconnections were exactly. Is there analogs for every 6 hour or 12 hour interval for each gfs run? Or just an analog for each system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 without all the models swings this hobby would be as boring as being regulated to only missionary position sex. With the Euro going all suppressed for up here now I don't have a bit of a clue what to even think... Don't even have a gut feeling... Sooo going to try my best and actually sleep with the wife tonight and not the euro and couch... Wish me luck almost spit up my drink reading this lol that clown map on the GFS is showing a nasty sharp southern gradient....fwiw. I'm just about into full winter storm mode, probably a few more runs of showing the storm. probably till I see the 12z NAM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lol Repiratory taking his trolling over to Mike Caplan's FB.. RG: "Mike with highs in the 30's and low snow ratios I wouldn't get to excited at all, what 8 to maybe 10:1 ratio snow? No biggie plus the sun angle will cut down on accumulations. Still hoping for the NW trend. Anyhow near 60 tommorow, that should quiet the freezinistas up some thank god." Mike: "with some models spitting out QPF values in excess of an inch... even at 8:1 you have to take notice." are you sure thats him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lol Repiratory taking his trolling over to Mike Caplan's FB.. RG: "Mike with highs in the 30's and low snow ratios I wouldn't get to excited at all, what 8 to maybe 10:1 ratio snow? No biggie plus the sun angle will cut down on accumulations. Still hoping for the NW trend. Anyhow near 60 tommorow, that should quiet the freezinistas up some thank god." Mike: "with some models spitting out QPF values in excess of an inch... even at 8:1 you have to take notice." Some people are really something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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