Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The Euro's solution is wrong because of the ese move. Can't happen with that progressive flow aloft. The GFS's problem is the lack of resolution so it can't find the baro zone and overreaches in its northern movements. Once it does, it should nail it. if your south of that zone, your screwed. The Euro has a tendency to fall for "supressed" solutions in this type of setup. Its blunders with the December 2008 storm are well remembered. [/quote Dec 18? I remember that storm. I only remember the gfs being way too far north and it ended up tracking along i80. Was a newbie then and didn't look at the euro quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Right now, my gut feeling is a track between the GFS and Euro, which would (not coincidentally) work out quite well for me, assuming moisture is not an issue. It's anybody's guess this far out, but personally I'd throw out the GFS all together and go with maybe a 70% EURO/30% GGEM blend. GFS is behind the ball on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It's anybody's guess this far out, but personally I'd throw out the GFS all together and go with maybe a 70% EURO/30% GGEM blend. GFS is behind the ball on this one. I am having a hard time believing that the 12z run of the Euro is going to be correct, I think previous runs of the Euro which would be similar to the GGEM would be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z GFS continues the small steps south, dumps on southern MN/northern IA and into southern WI, good to see it spitting out qpf amounts like the GEM. would expect the 0z GFS to go a tad more south of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah, to be more specific, the GGEM may be closest to the most realistic track. The Euro is far south enough that it would not give the heaviest snow for Southern Wisconsin. That said, I much prefer that vs. the previous runs of the GFS giving us heavy rain. Not until later March will I enjoy rain and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I am having a hard time believing that the 12z run of the Euro is going to be correct, I think previous runs of the Euro which would be similar to the GGEM would be closer to reality. -NAO blocking is weak, which may mean the EURO is overdoing it a bit with the digging of that northern s/w but my thinking it's not by much. I don't think the EURO will trend any further south, and you may see a slight adjustment north, but I think the general idea of a e-w track through the OV is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 -NAO blocking is weak, which may mean the EURO is overdoing it a bit with the digging of that northern s/w but my thinking it's not by much. I don't think the EURO will trend any further south, and you may see a slight adjustment north, but I think the general idea of a e-w track through the OV is the way to go. Lock in the lol18z. Good front end snow then the main show. 1.50 plus along 94 in mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Lock in the lol18z. Good front end snow then the main show. 1.50 plus along 94 in mi. All snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Lock in the lol18z. Good front end snow then the main show. 1.50 plus along 94 in mi. Enjoy it while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Enjoy it while it lasts. Hey its about time the gfs outduels the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Enjoy it while it lasts. Kinna like I do the first viewing of a new porno. 6 hrs later when you replay its just not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Enjoy it while it lasts. I think the GFS is probably on the Northern end of the bubble, but this isn't like previous systems where its diving Southeast, this will be initially ejecting ENE then E. So the very far South solutions are not going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z GEM at 120 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hey its about time the gfs outduels the euro. I'm with ya. I'd love for some fresh snow after the thaw. Still 5-6 days out so hopefully we'll see some swings in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think the GFS is probably on the Northern end of the bubble, but this isn't like previous systems where its diving Southeast, this will be initially ejecting ENE then E. So the very far South solutions are not going to be correct. If that lobe of energy is as far south as the EURO is depicting, I don't think it'll matter what trajectory the main storm is taking. Diving SE/or ejecting NE, it'll be crushed. EURO might be overdoing that feature a bit, but I like the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm with ya. I'd love for some fresh snow after the thaw. Still 5-6 days out so hopefully we'll see some swings in the models. without all the models swings this hobby would be as boring as being regulated to only missionary position sex. With the Euro going all suppressed for up here now I don't have a bit of a clue what to even think... Don't even have a gut feeling... Sooo going to try my best and actually sleep with the wife tonight and not the euro and couch... Wish me luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Kinna like I do the first viewing of a new porno. 6 hrs later when you replay its just not the same. Yeah, just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 If that lobe of energy is as far south as the EURO is depicting, I don't think it'll matter what trajectory the main storm is taking. Diving SE/or ejecting NE, it'll be crushed. EURO might be overdoing that feature a bit, but I like the general idea. Yeah that's a big if though, kind of along the principle of phasing with the PV these northern stream pieces sometimes are forecasted to be stronger than what will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 without all the models swings this hobby would be as boring as being regulated to only missionary position sex. With the Euro going all suppressed for up here now I don't have a bit of a clue what to even think... Don't even have a gut feeling... Sooo going to try my best and actually sleep with the wife tonight and not the euro and couch... Wish me luck Too early to abandon the wifey for the models. I'd give it til Friday night. If you have some 1" blobs over your house by then, brew the coffee for the long haul and get the refresh clicking finger ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah that's a big if though, kind of along the principle of phasing with the PV these northern stream pieces sometimes are forecasted to be stronger than what will verify We'll see. If it ends up tracking along the gulf coast I'm going to troll you big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Too early to abandon the wifey for the models. I'd give it til Friday night. If you have some 1" blobs over your house by then, brew the coffee for the long haul and get the refresh clicking finger ready. Coffee? You mean stock up on beer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Im ready to abandon my wife for a few days..Its the middle of the month. Shes more moody than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Coffee? You mean stock up on beer... Beer only if the models show an I-70 special and you need something to drown your sorrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 lol @ you 2. I'm hoping in weenie terms the Euro is just holding things back to long and it speeds up some and the blocking moves along just enough to get the system north enough before heading east. Euro will def do better than the 12z crap... thinking we can get it to come through central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 im all ready liking this storm. Even though its far from a call..I like not having the insane level of local media hype. 4 days prior to the Groundhogs day Blizzard the words epic and historic and worst of all "snowmagedon" were being tosed around on radio and TV. We ended up with 5 inches of crappy small flakes before getting a dry slut..I hope this throws the area into a frenzy of surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We'll see. If it ends up tracking along the gulf coast I'm going to troll you big time. If that happens I'll eat my shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 im all ready liking this storm. Even though its far from a call..I like not having the insane level of local media hype. 4 days prior to the Groundhogs day Blizzard the words epic and historic and worst of all "snowmagedon" were being tosed around on radio and TV. We ended up with 5 inches of crappy small flakes before getting a dry slut..I hope this throws the area into a frenzy of surprise! Right on man.. And hopefully I won't be hearing the couple obnoxiously loud Harley's I did today for a long time after this torch. Actually had to open a window today as it was getting warm in here..Furnace hasn't kicked on more than a half dozen times since last sat. Time to burn the savings of this week up in late Feb and march hopefully. Still time for 2 or 3 more warning events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Kinna like I do the first viewing of a new porno. 6 hrs later when you replay its just not the same. See I'm the other way. The more I watch and listen to a new artists CD the more it grows on me. Definately get my vote for the funniest weenie for your posts on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 im all ready liking this storm. Even though its far from a call..I like not having the insane level of local media hype. 4 days prior to the Groundhogs day Blizzard the words epic and historic and worst of all "snowmagedon" were being tosed around on radio and TV. We ended up with 5 inches of crappy small flakes before getting a dry slut..I hope this throws the area into a frenzy of surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean at 120hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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