mnweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 (storm 2) Euro went from last night showing a storm ending up around international falls to one cutting through central Illinois on 12z. lol. Lots of flip flopping to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Henry not sure if gfs or euro is right. Says snow between i70 and i90. Where the hell is I90. Henry's not sure each morning that he put his undies on the right way let alone dissect and pick which model he thinks is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Henry's not sure each morning that he put his undies on the right way let alone dissect and pick which model he thinks is more correct. Lol I knew once someone read Henry this type of response would show up. There's always a good reason though. To be honest though I doubt this storm is going to be as supressed as the euro is showing. By sat we should have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Henry not sure if gfs or euro is right. Says snow between i70 and i90. Where the hell is I90. It's only the LONGEST interstate highway in the country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It's only the LONGEST interstate highway in the country... Yea 80/90 the Ohio turnpike basically around here. Forgot its also 90. Thanks for the visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 fwiw, the HPC's extended maps show they are going with the far south Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Afternoon discussions are going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I90 goes right through La Crosse... Its a pretty empty stretch of road compared to I80... I'll wait and see was NWS here thinks about these turn of events. GFS has far less moisture here, but it would be all snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is not digging that northern stream vortex far enough south over the weekend, thus the further north track with southern storm. I'd ride the EURO attm. GFS is playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 fwiw, the HPC's extended maps show they are going with the far south Euro solution. Have a link for those? Thanks! Only thing I can find is these. Day 5 prob of precip updated at 2:20 eastern time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is not digging that northern stream vortex far enough south over the weekend, thus the further north track with southern storm. I'd ride the EURO attm. GFS is playing catch up. I just thought the high pressure to the north was stronger on the euro, thus the suppression. I think the euro overdoes the suppression. At this point I think the track may go along i80 in illinois, 100 miles north or south. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Have a link for those? Thanks! Only thing I can find is these. Day 5 prob of precip updated at 2:20 eastern time today. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....medr/medr.shtml Ty, sir.. Maps I posted look awfully GFS QPF like and probably garbage. Wonder how HPC creates them? prob says if I look closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 LOT met this guy while I was at the office before the blizzard. He doesn't even mention that the Euro is showing all snow here. not a good write up IMO. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS TRENDING A GOOD 12 TO 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN COULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EARLY INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. KREIN and Mr. Hype out of DVN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER WAVE TO PASS ON MONDAY BEHIND A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY. THIS IS KEY AS WILL ADD ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS SFC LOW PASSES ACROSS MISSOURI ALONG THIS FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. POOR RUN TO RUN PHASING VARIANCE STILL INDICATED FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TOOLS DO SUGGEST AN ADVISORY SNOW EVENT IS INDICATED WITH ISOLATED 6+ INCHES BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. ENERGY VARIANCE TECHNIQUES SUPPORT THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR SNOW SHOULD BE CLARIFIED THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BLEND OF LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST AS OF THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 ATTM WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NE TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALSO SUGGESTED WITH TEMPS AOB 32F IN SNOW OVER NORTH 1/2 OF AREA. MAY MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO HWO PRODUCT ON BEING A BIT MORE SPECIFIC ON RISKS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND TOO EARLY TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR PROPERLY. PASS TO LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. MODERATE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. ..NICHOLS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Sounds like LOT is very confidently going with a heavy rain event, while many areas in the MKX zone just got upgraded to a 70% chance of snow on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 MKE going likley pops 5 days+ out is pretty gutsy imo. This thing could very well head even farther south and not give MKE area any precip really. I would go 50% pops instead of 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 I just thought the high pressure to the north was stronger on the euro, thus the suppression. I think the euro overdoes the suppression. At this point I think the track may go along i80 in illinois, 100 miles north or south. We will see. What model would you trend toward in terms of strength? I think the GFS and GGEM are a bit stronger than the Euro right now, which has significantly weakened the pressure and the QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 MKE afd sounds like it was written by a 9th grader. So many errors. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN GEMNH. IT BRINGS A LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PULLS IT RAPIDLY AWAY ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GEMNH HAVE THIS FEATURE COMING OUT SLOWER AND INTO KANSAS/MISSOURI/IOWA AREA DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE KEY DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ONTARIO ON SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DIG THIS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE RESULTING STRONG CONFLUENT ZONE ALOFT HOLDS THE POLAR HIGH IN STRONGER AND LONGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING THE GEMNH AND ECMWF COLDER AND FARTHER SOUTH ON THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. WHILE MY CONFIDENCE IN THE GEMNH AND ECMWF WERE INCREASING FOR A BIG MONDAY SNOW EVENT...THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE...WITH A LOT LESS QPF. THE AMUSING PART IS THAT THE ECMWF IS SO FAR SOUTH AND COLDER...THAT WE ACTUALLY WOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WITH -14 TO -16C AT 850 MB. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE COLDER SOLUTIONS WITH LESS CHANCE OF RAIN WILL VERIFY IN THE END. DO HAVE A BIT OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT THIS MAY EVEN BE A TAD OVERDONE IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES COLDER. THINKING IN TERMS OF A HIGH END ADVISORY...LOW END WARNING EVENT. GFS AND GEMNH HAVE QPF ON ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS NOT BACKED WAY OFF TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Kinna snicker at LOT humping the GFS this AM and sounds like it still. They either hate snow or barolinic hypnotized them in to thinking the GFS is worth more than wiping your ass with in the medium longerish range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 MKE going likley pops 5 days+ out is pretty gutsy imo. This thing could very well head even farther south and not give MKE area any precip really. I would go 50% pops instead of 70%. Then you have the wonderful, (sarcasm) conservative GRR office who actually decreased pops for next week based on "new model runs". So basically if it's a chance of rain they're more confident than when the possibility for snow increases. Comparing their morning discussions to their afternoon discussions gets tiresome because they just flip flop with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 FWIW...18z NAM at 84hrs. nice LL flow and tight baroclinic zone in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Got a nice model war taking place to say the least.... Springlike and storms on the GFS and cold and snow on the EURO simply classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 What model would you trend toward in terms of strength? I think the GFS and GGEM are a bit stronger than the Euro right now, which has significantly weakened the pressure and the QPF amounts. Normally I would go with the euro because its usually more consistent but it hasn't been that way so far with this storm. Going to have to wait for this weeks storm to evolve before the track is nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The Euro isn't cold at all outside New England and the far north. 126hr-180hr EURO is much colder then GFS in the Ohio Valley. I posted the comparisions page or two back....It does cut storm 2 and torch us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 126hr-180hr EURO is much colder then GFS in the Ohio Valley. I posted the comparisions page or two back....It does cut storm 2 and torch us... Storm 2 cuts but where is the problem? It has had 3 solution in 3 runs. Could be a western of eastern lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I just thought the high pressure to the north was stronger on the euro, thus the suppression. I think the euro overdoes the suppression. At this point I think the track may go along i80 in illinois, 100 miles north or south. We will see. That's what's happening at the sfc. But generally it's better to analyze model discrepancies at H5 12z GFS at 96 12z EURO at 96 Notice the vortex over Hudson Bay being show on both models. On the EURO, it's more elongated, scraping Lk Superior, while on the GFS is broader/flatter. From there, the GFS zips that vortex due east and moves it out of the way so the main storm has room to move north. EURO on the other hand continues to dig that vortex to the S/E and "blocks" the main storm. Based on the good ensemble agreement with the EURO OP run, and the trends of the other models, I'd put my money on the suppressed solution. Plus, the intensity of northern stream s/ws are usually underestimated, which would tend to support the EURO solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z GFS is going south, but it's probably still too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z GFS is going south, but it's probably still too far north. Right now, my gut feeling is a track between the GFS and Euro, which would (not coincidentally) work out quite well for me, assuming moisture is not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That's what's happening at the sfc. But generally it's better to analyze model discrepancies at H5 12z GFS at 96 12z EURO at 96 Notice the vortex over Hudson Bay being show on both models. On the EURO, it's more elongated, scraping Lk Superior, while on the GFS is broader/flatter. From there, the GFS zips that vortex due east and moves it out of the way so the main storm has room to move north. EURO on the other hand continues to dig that vortex to the S/E and "blocks" the main storm. Based on the good ensemble agreement with the EURO OP run, and the trends of the other models, I'd put my money on the suppressed solution. Plus, the intensity of northern stream s/ws are usually underestimated, which would tend to support the EURO solution. Thanks for the visuals. This is the same thing that suppressed the last big storm all the way into ok and Ark. Hopefully a blend of the gfs and euro occurs. Does the strength of this late week storm affect how far south the high or vortex goes? A stronger storm would force it further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 There's probably going to be some big time low level cold air coming out of Ontario on NE winds early next week leading to some temperature forecast busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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