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Florida 2011 Spring & Summer "Wet" Season


toad strangler

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Looks like NWS Miami agrees with my analysis:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-180500-

GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-

INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-

METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-

COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-

950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AND

DRY AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING

STRONG, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE

STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OF AROUND PENNY SIZE

THIS AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE

ATLANTIC BEACHES.

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Looks like NWS Miami agrees with my analysis:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-180500-

GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-

INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-

METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-

COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-

950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AND

DRY AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING

STRONG, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE

STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OF AROUND PENNY SIZE

THIS AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE

ATLANTIC BEACHES.

Care to share some of that action?? :lol:

BTW, were did you find that HRR , data and maps?? That looks interesting.

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Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. :thumbsup:

post-378-0-54196700-1303074740.gif

Care to share some of that action?? :lol:

BTW, were did you find that HRR , data and maps?? That looks interesting.

Yeah, you can get it here:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

I prefer to set domain to SE and set date to one hour previous forecast if the run isn't in yet.

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Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. :thumbsup:

post-378-0-54196700-1303074740.gif

Yeah, you can get it here:

http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/

I prefer to set domain to SE and set date to one hour previous forecast if the run isn't in yet.

Thanks!!!, I appreciate it.. Your right we are getting to the time of the year when you can get storms without a squall line.

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Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. :thumbsup:

post-378-0-54196700-1303074740.gif

Yeah, you can get it here:

http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/

I prefer to set domain to SE and set date to one hour previous forecast if the run isn't in yet.

Wow.. just took a quick spin of that site, very nice!!!. This will be a very nice toy this summer, Thanks!!!

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Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. :thumbsup:

In other words .... start of the "wet season" down by you? Check out the first post in this thread. Some interesting hard data on the beginning of fun on the Treasure Coast by me. Still a solid month away. I assume the onset of the fun comes earlier by you. Any thoughts?

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In other words .... start of the "wet season" down by you? Check out the first post in this thread. Some interesting hard data on the beginning of fun on the Treasure Coast by me. Still a solid month away. I assume the onset of the fun comes earlier by you. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't say it's the start of the wet season yet, even here. It's more that we can now get a storms more easily with marginal dynamics. A month ago, we needed fairly strong dynamics, a month from now we'll only need the thermodynamics (the sea breeze doesn't hurt).

But yeah, even here we're almost a month away from the wet season.

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I wouldn't say it's the start of the wet season yet, even here. It's more that we can now get a storms more easily with marginal dynamics. A month ago, we needed fairly strong dynamics, a month from now we'll only need the thermodynamics (the sea breeze doesn't hurt).

But yeah, even here we're almost a month away from the wet season.

Yep next month things really start to change.. Here in Polk County the West and East Coasr sea breezes collide quite often and it can really set off some big storms( lightning producers)

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I wouldn't say it's the start of the wet season yet, even here. It's more that we can now get a storms more easily with marginal dynamics. A month ago, we needed fairly strong dynamics, a month from now we'll only need the thermodynamics (the sea breeze doesn't hurt).

But yeah, even here we're almost a month away from the wet season.

Yea it's still not the wet season. You can tell it's coming soon though. It's at the point where I debate if I should bring an umbrella when I go from my car to a building. Another few weeks and I'll bring it no matter where I go; even if it's to run into a grocery store for 5 minutes. LOL.

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I don't think storms in this area are rough compared to other parts of Florida.

The only time they get rough so to speak is when they are associated with a front. Having lived in Pompano for 11 years and now Ocala for 12 years the only real difference I notice is that there is more lightning with the summer time storms up here.

Occasionally you'll get an EF0 or a downburst up here but things really aren't that different.

At least to me.

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The only time they get rough so to speak is when they are associated with a front. Having lived in Pompano for 11 years and now Ocala for 12 years the only real difference I notice is that there is more lightning with the summer time storms up here.

Occasionally you'll get an EF0 or a downburst up here but things really aren't that different.

At least to me.

When I lived in the West Boca/ Deerfield Beach area we had daily storms but not to many all that rough.. Of course, many areas of South Florida the people are packed in only about up to 12 -15 miles inland and then you hit Everglades. The storms would really seem to get going once further inland and over the Glades. Once I moved to Lakeland area and was further inland, I noticed a big difference in intensity and like you said in Lightning.

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OOPSIE!!!!

XUS62 KMFL 181933 AAA

AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

333 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011

...UPDATED TO INCREASE POOPS AND TO ADD STRONG STORMS TO THE EAST

COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

U-Thant I have been meaning to compliment you and the gang at the Melbourne office. Your Area Forecast discussions are the most weather weenie friendly around. You guys really explain the situation great!!. I have to admit, I have learned a great deal just from reading the daily AFD'S from your office!!!. Thanks!!!! :thumbsup:

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I am jealous!!!, here is the rest of the Miami discussion( they corrected the mistake)

.UPDATE...

STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER INLAND BROWARD AND PORTIONS OF

PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLLISION OF THE EAST

AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. STRONG STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO

DEVELOP LONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE

EARLY EVENING HOURS AND PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO

AREAS....AS THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST

DIRECTION. THE LATEST RUC 13 AND WRF MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN

INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH BACK TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH

THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST

METRO AREAS WILL BE RAISE TO 50 PERCENT COVERAGE FOR REST OF THIS

AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

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U-Thant I have been meaning to compliment you and the gang at the Melbourne office. Your Area Forecast discussions are the most weather weenie friendly around. You guys really explain the situation great!!. I have to admit, I have learned a great deal just from reading the daily AFD'S from your office!!!. Thanks!!!! :thumbsup:

Have to agree here. It's nice when they make it interesting. Jax for the longest time was like a computer wrote it. No personal touch at all. Nowadays they have loosened up a bit and it more entertaining to read. Tampa has always been great.

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Have to agree here. It's nice when they make it interesting. Jax for the longest time was like a computer wrote it. No personal touch at all. Nowadays they have loosened up a bit and it more entertaining to read. Tampa has always been great.

Yep, Tampa is pretty good, depends on the forecaster on duty. It seems though, the melbourne afd's are like a class text, really informative . Seeing that Miami discussion gives me hope that things might start cranking ahead of schedule this year

as far as the start of the rainy season. We shall see.

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C'mon! Early start to Hurricane Season! One Time!

Lol.. well if you have been following the Tropical thread, they are discussing or arguing about a possible development or STS forming East of the Bahamas . the Miami and Tampa Forecasts discussions talk about a inverted trough moving into Florida Monday/Tuesday. ( which seems to be part of the feature talked about in the tropical thread) The shear is too high but hey, at least the inverted trough will give us some decent boomer action next week it seems.

A tidbit from todays Miami AFD.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH

FL FROM THE SE EARLY TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A

MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS LIKELY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY FOR MUCH OF NEXT

WEEK.

.

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Lol.. well if you have been following the Tropical thread, they are discussing or arguing about a possible development or STS forming East of the Bahamas . the Miami and Tampa Forecasts discussions talk about a inverted trough moving into Florida Monday/Tuesday. ( which seems to be part of the feature talked about in the tropical thread) The shear is too high but hey, at least the inverted trough will give us some decent boomer action next week it seems.

A tidbit from todays Miami AFD.

I rarely post in that thread but I follow it everyday. I've been here 3 years and haven't seen crap. I'll take anything at this point. LOL.

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