icebreaker5221 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Looks like NWS Miami agrees with my analysis: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-180500- GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER- INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE- METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH- COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE- 950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 ...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL. WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL: THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OF AROUND PENNY SIZE THIS AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Looks like NWS Miami agrees with my analysis: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-180500- GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER- INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE- METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH- COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE- 950 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 ...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL. WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL: THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OF AROUND PENNY SIZE THIS AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. Care to share some of that action?? BTW, were did you find that HRR , data and maps?? That looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. Care to share some of that action?? BTW, were did you find that HRR , data and maps?? That looks interesting. Yeah, you can get it here: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ I prefer to set domain to SE and set date to one hour previous forecast if the run isn't in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. Yeah, you can get it here: http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ I prefer to set domain to SE and set date to one hour previous forecast if the run isn't in yet. Thanks!!!, I appreciate it.. Your right we are getting to the time of the year when you can get storms without a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. Yeah, you can get it here: http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ I prefer to set domain to SE and set date to one hour previous forecast if the run isn't in yet. Wow.. just took a quick spin of that site, very nice!!!. This will be a very nice toy this summer, Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Verifying quite nicely. And we're actually getting to that part of the year where you don't need a squall line to get some decent lightning. In other words .... start of the "wet season" down by you? Check out the first post in this thread. Some interesting hard data on the beginning of fun on the Treasure Coast by me. Still a solid month away. I assume the onset of the fun comes earlier by you. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 In other words .... start of the "wet season" down by you? Check out the first post in this thread. Some interesting hard data on the beginning of fun on the Treasure Coast by me. Still a solid month away. I assume the onset of the fun comes earlier by you. Any thoughts? I wouldn't say it's the start of the wet season yet, even here. It's more that we can now get a storms more easily with marginal dynamics. A month ago, we needed fairly strong dynamics, a month from now we'll only need the thermodynamics (the sea breeze doesn't hurt). But yeah, even here we're almost a month away from the wet season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I wouldn't say it's the start of the wet season yet, even here. It's more that we can now get a storms more easily with marginal dynamics. A month ago, we needed fairly strong dynamics, a month from now we'll only need the thermodynamics (the sea breeze doesn't hurt). But yeah, even here we're almost a month away from the wet season. Yep next month things really start to change.. Here in Polk County the West and East Coasr sea breezes collide quite often and it can really set off some big storms( lightning producers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Haven't lived here a whole summer yet so i'm eager to see what the weather is going to be like. I'm sure it's going to be extremely hot, but I hope we get some good summer boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I wouldn't say it's the start of the wet season yet, even here. It's more that we can now get a storms more easily with marginal dynamics. A month ago, we needed fairly strong dynamics, a month from now we'll only need the thermodynamics (the sea breeze doesn't hurt). But yeah, even here we're almost a month away from the wet season. Yea it's still not the wet season. You can tell it's coming soon though. It's at the point where I debate if I should bring an umbrella when I go from my car to a building. Another few weeks and I'll bring it no matter where I go; even if it's to run into a grocery store for 5 minutes. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Haven't lived here a whole summer yet so i'm eager to see what the weather is going to be like. I'm sure it's going to be extremely hot, but I hope we get some good summer boomers. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Where are you located? Fort Lauderdale. Used to get some decent storms where I used to live in Pasco county. Haven't been through a real rough one down here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Fort Lauderdale. Used to get some decent storms where I used to live in Pasco county. Haven't been through a real rough one down here yet. I don't think storms in this area are rough compared to other parts of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I don't think storms in this area are rough compared to other parts of Florida. The only time they get rough so to speak is when they are associated with a front. Having lived in Pompano for 11 years and now Ocala for 12 years the only real difference I notice is that there is more lightning with the summer time storms up here. Occasionally you'll get an EF0 or a downburst up here but things really aren't that different. At least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 OOPSIE!!!! XUS62 KMFL 181933 AAA AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 333 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011 ...UPDATED TO INCREASE POOPS AND TO ADD STRONG STORMS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 The only time they get rough so to speak is when they are associated with a front. Having lived in Pompano for 11 years and now Ocala for 12 years the only real difference I notice is that there is more lightning with the summer time storms up here. Occasionally you'll get an EF0 or a downburst up here but things really aren't that different. At least to me. When I lived in the West Boca/ Deerfield Beach area we had daily storms but not to many all that rough.. Of course, many areas of South Florida the people are packed in only about up to 12 -15 miles inland and then you hit Everglades. The storms would really seem to get going once further inland and over the Glades. Once I moved to Lakeland area and was further inland, I noticed a big difference in intensity and like you said in Lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 OOPSIE!!!! XUS62 KMFL 181933 AAA AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 333 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011 ...UPDATED TO INCREASE POOPS AND TO ADD STRONG STORMS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 OOPSIE!!!! XUS62 KMFL 181933 AAA AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 333 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011 ...UPDATED TO INCREASE POOPS AND TO ADD STRONG STORMS TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING... U-Thant I have been meaning to compliment you and the gang at the Melbourne office. Your Area Forecast discussions are the most weather weenie friendly around. You guys really explain the situation great!!. I have to admit, I have learned a great deal just from reading the daily AFD'S from your office!!!. Thanks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I am jealous!!!, here is the rest of the Miami discussion( they corrected the mistake) .UPDATE... STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER INLAND BROWARD AND PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. STRONG STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS....AS THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE LATEST RUC 13 AND WRF MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH BACK TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL BE RAISE TO 50 PERCENT COVERAGE FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I am jealous!!!, here is the rest of the Miami discussion( they corrected the mistake) Me too. Makes me want to drive down to Deerfield to visit the in-laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 U-Thant I have been meaning to compliment you and the gang at the Melbourne office. Your Area Forecast discussions are the most weather weenie friendly around. You guys really explain the situation great!!. I have to admit, I have learned a great deal just from reading the daily AFD'S from your office!!!. Thanks!!!! Have to agree here. It's nice when they make it interesting. Jax for the longest time was like a computer wrote it. No personal touch at all. Nowadays they have loosened up a bit and it more entertaining to read. Tampa has always been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Have to agree here. It's nice when they make it interesting. Jax for the longest time was like a computer wrote it. No personal touch at all. Nowadays they have loosened up a bit and it more entertaining to read. Tampa has always been great. Yep, Tampa is pretty good, depends on the forecaster on duty. It seems though, the melbourne afd's are like a class text, really informative . Seeing that Miami discussion gives me hope that things might start cranking ahead of schedule this year as far as the start of the rainy season. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Possible action this afternoon. Sea breezes are on the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Possible action this afternoon. Sea breezes are on the move. The Tampa Discussion has a 20% chance of some Boomers forming along the Sea Breeze the next 2 days. I will take what ever I can get in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 A few storms managed to pop today. This map from the Tampa office gives hope, though isolated ,maybe some stronger storms on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 C'mon! Early start to Hurricane Season! One Time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 C'mon! Early start to Hurricane Season! One Time! LOL Just a little TS to spin up in the Gulf and move this way. Yeah, I could deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 C'mon! Early start to Hurricane Season! One Time! Lol.. well if you have been following the Tropical thread, they are discussing or arguing about a possible development or STS forming East of the Bahamas . the Miami and Tampa Forecasts discussions talk about a inverted trough moving into Florida Monday/Tuesday. ( which seems to be part of the feature talked about in the tropical thread) The shear is too high but hey, at least the inverted trough will give us some decent boomer action next week it seems. A tidbit from todays Miami AFD. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM THE SE EARLY TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS LIKELY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 While it's just a inverted trough , maybe a sign of the track of future storms? anyways, here is the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Lol.. well if you have been following the Tropical thread, they are discussing or arguing about a possible development or STS forming East of the Bahamas . the Miami and Tampa Forecasts discussions talk about a inverted trough moving into Florida Monday/Tuesday. ( which seems to be part of the feature talked about in the tropical thread) The shear is too high but hey, at least the inverted trough will give us some decent boomer action next week it seems. A tidbit from todays Miami AFD. I rarely post in that thread but I follow it everyday. I've been here 3 years and haven't seen crap. I'll take anything at this point. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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