flwxwatcher45 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The soundings this morning look more promising and this graphic from the Tampa NWS makes it a better day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 So I get home this afternoon and I notice 2 black bugs "sitting" on top of each other. WTF? Yea, love bugs. LOL. Not a lot, nothing like a swarm or anything. Maybe 10-20 of them. I was more impressed with the fact that they took off together. I don't care what you are or where you came from, that's talent. They were swarming last Sunday on the turnpike. I had never seen so many in my life around the Fort Drum rest stop. They were everywhere inside and outside of the building. The front of the car was covered with them. It at least forced me to wash and wax the car when I got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 They were swarming last Sunday on the turnpike. I had never seen so many in my life around the Fort Drum rest stop. They were everywhere inside and outside of the building. The front of the car was covered with them. It at least forced me to wash and wax the car when I got home. Back from a Disney weekend. Love Bugs are on the wane. Even Okeechobee is not bad now. Thank goodness and time to get that THOROUGH wash on the vehicles to erase all bad memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 The soundings this morning look more promising and this graphic from the Tampa NWS makes it a better day. nice ..... we are all in "that" period where dew points will become consistent as will our storms. hope it starts with you fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 nice ..... we are all in "that" period where dew points will become consistent as will our storms. hope it starts with you fl Looks like a false alarm for now but this week-end a upper trough should help increase rain chances per the GFS.. Hope that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Wonder if any stations will hit 100 today in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Wonder if any stations will hit 100 today in the interior. That's a good point. I thought I might here in Lakeland but some mid and upper level clouds from the Upper low over Cuba has cut down on the daytime heating some. The next few days look hot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Nice cell popped up over Ocala and went severe for a bit. To my delight one has popped up just east of me and is slowly inching this way. Even a bit of thunder with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Yea, just took a look at radar and see all the action is near you. I am jealous. This link from the Tampa office today talks about the dry and hot spell but also talks about this week-ends storm threat. This blurb from it peaked my interest. For the next few days the rather hot and dry pattern is expected to persist as the upper level ridge remains over the region. However, toward the end of the week the pattern will begin to change as a trough of low pressure moves east and eventually setups up across the area next weekend. This will lead to much better chances of thunderstorms for Friday through next weekend, but along with this the threat of large hail and gusty winds will also increase as cooler air associated with the trough of low pressure moves over the region in the mid-levels. http://www.srh.noaa....=68580&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Interesting, the GFS has fliiped and now doesn't bring a mid and upper level low near Florida and the precip chances look to be more from the SB. On the other hand, the EURO now cuts off a 500 MB low near Florida for the week-end. Interesting to see how the pattern shakes out. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011052400!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The 12Z run of the EURO today is very interesting. It appears to develope the first tropical system of the year!!!. It looks like the system comes across Florida from the east and moves into the Gulf. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011052412!!/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011052412!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Invest 92 http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201192_model.html#a_topad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Invest 92 http://www.wundergro...el.html#a_topad I don't think it's invest 92 the EURO brings across Florida. It appears to be from a cut off 500 MB low it drops near Florida later this week. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Wow, so now it looks like we won't get any more rain for the rest of the month. In the months of April and May we have gotten maybe 1" total. Maybe the rainy season will start in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hi Floridians! I'm a former Lakelander headed down to Boca Grande the week after Memorial Day in search of a few tarpon. Hoping the Euro is off base with this obnoxious cutoff low that meanders around the gulf for a couple decades. Sounds like y'all could use the rain, but lwo pressure messes up the fishing! Can't wait to get back to the Sunshine State! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hi Floridians! I'm a former Lakelander headed down to Boca Grande the week after Memorial Day in search of a few tarpon. Hoping the Euro is off base with this obnoxious cutoff low that meanders around the gulf for a couple decades. Sounds like y'all could use the rain, but lwo pressure messes up the fishing! Can't wait to get back to the Sunshine State! I am a current Lakelander now. Yes, the EURO has a wetter look for Florida then the GFS. It seems the local forecast offices are siding with the GFS solution for now. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Either way enjoy your stay in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Wow, so now it looks like we won't get any more rain for the rest of the month. In the months of April and May we have gotten maybe 1" total. Maybe the rainy season will start in July June 11th is the latest official start of the rainy season IMBY over the last 11 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hi Floridians! I'm a former Lakelander headed down to Boca Grande the week after Memorial Day in search of a few tarpon. Hoping the Euro is off base with this obnoxious cutoff low that meanders around the gulf for a couple decades. Sounds like y'all could use the rain, but lwo pressure messes up the fishing! Can't wait to get back to the Sunshine State! No need to go to Boca Grande for the poons. We have been getting into them out of Crystal River. My buddy hooked 2 last week that were appx 100 and 60lbs. Unfortunately they got off. Last week we hooked a smaller one that also got away. Good luck down there but we really need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Wow, so now it looks like we won't get any more rain for the rest of the month. In the months of April and May we have gotten maybe 1" total. Maybe the rainy season will start in July It could be July up here. A while back they cancelled July 4th fireworks because of the fire danger. .72 in April and so far .82 for May with a slight chance for this weekend. Doesn't look good for the rainy season to begin on time in north central Florida. Here's the current KBDI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It could be July up here. A while back they cancelled July 4th fireworks because of the fire danger. .72 in April and so far .82 for May with a slight chance for this weekend. Doesn't look good for the rainy season to begin on time in north central Florida. Here's the current KBDI. Yea, we need the rain badly. This could be a big test on the latest EURO upgrade because it appears to me there are some differences in the GFS and EURO in handling the 500 MB ridge . It looks like to me the EURO is keeping a weakness in the mid levels around Florida and the SE while the GFS is more robust building in the mid level ridge. I am no expert but it seems like the EURO solution would give a better chance of rain for Florida. Time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Wow, so now it looks like we won't get any more rain for the rest of the month. In the months of April and May we have gotten maybe 1" total. Maybe the rainy season will start in July Relax. It is going to start raining on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 This afternoons AFD from Tallahassee mentions the model differences for the late week-end into early next week period. THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A PIECE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LEFT BEHIND AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FL OR THE BAHAMAS DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ENERGY. LATEST GFS IS FAVORING A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SE STATES AND AS A RESULT FORCING MUCH OF THIS ENERGY TO STAY EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA (AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY). ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING THIS ENERGY TO CUT-OFF AND DRIFT BACK WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA-BREEZE GENERATED CONVECTION. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL CLOUD-COVER FOR OUR REGION...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH ISN`T AS STRONG WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AS THE GFS...BUT ALSO NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 A nice line of T-storms has formed on the WCSB. Getting a nice T-shower right now.. A sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 A nice line of T-storms has formed on the WCSB. Getting a nice T-shower right now.. A sign of things to come. Very nice line but a little east of me. Hopefully today I get some. Glad you finally did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Very nice line but a little east of me. Hopefully today I get some. Glad you finally did. Yes, hopefully things are starting to change to rainy season conditions. Also, in the long range ,almost all forecast models are now showing something developing in the Caribbean. If nothing else ,maybe at least some added mositure gets drawn up Floridas way. Hoping you get in on the Action today.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Vigorous thunderstorms going up along the seabreeze front today in the SE FL metro areas. It's awesome, but unfortunately I have to fly out to Albany and this will probably delay everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Vigorous thunderstorms going up along the seabreeze front today in the SE FL metro areas. It's awesome, but unfortunately I have to fly out to Albany and this will probably delay everything It looks like storms are firing up all along the Eastern side of the state. I see one storm has gone severe west of palm coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 We got sideswiped at the airport today. Some pretty good lightning, close enough to close the ramp. Very bright and vivid. Didn't get a whole ton of rain out of the storms, but they barely just clipped us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Close but no cigar yesterday. I can feel it though. Today is the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Dew points hit 71 here two days in a row. Getting there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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