flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Things are actually a bit interesting in FL for this time of year. It looks like with the continued light breeze, drought conditions, high temps and low RH values, fire weather should continue for at least another day or two. The fire in Big Cypress has burned almost 36,000 acres now, and is 60-percent contained. Once the seabreeze weakens in S. Fl this evening, the east coast metros will probably smell the smoke again. Sunset may be quite nice, and a bit more red than usual, with the hazy / smoky look in the air to the west. We also have an ocean swell incoming Wed night, and continuing for quite a while, compliments the large mid-Atlantic cyclone churning right now. For those beach-goers out there, it could make things more interesting than the normal late spring / early summer flat seas. See the wave-watch 3 forecast to see when it will get to your area: https://www.fnmoc.na...12&set=SeaState Finally, we may be looking at some wet and cooler weather this weekend into early next week, thanks to an unseasonably deep trough projected to develop over the ern United States. Today's ECMWF was particularly aggressive, with the low forecast to be centered over north FL 12Z next Tues! A non-tropical synoptic low pressure that far south is truly extraordinary for this time of year. Also, compliments blocking over the Atlantic, any system that develops will be very slow moving. Yes, early next week does look to turn interesting for Florida and like you said, that low/tough should be slow moving. I have been reading also that the trough will split and help lower pressure in the Caribbean over the next few weeks; coupled with the MJO pulse that should move into that area in the 10 - 15 day range , maybe an early season system may try to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 Yes, early next week does look to turn interesting for Florida and like you said, that low/tough should be slow moving. I have been reading also that the trough will split and help lower pressure in the Caribbean over the next few weeks; coupled with the MJO pulse that should move into that area in the 10 - 15 day range , maybe an early season system may try to form. Nice .... hopefully we get some decent rain over a period of time instead of the one shot wonders recently. Side note - Work had me in Okeechobee today and the Love Bugs were out of control. My home is just 25 miles east from there and the difference astonished me as last year it was bad all over. I literally had to stop three times at gas stations to scrape them off and then wash the windshield. (windshield wiper fluid does nothing). Then to the car wash I went tonight. My truck was BLACK. The smell of the buring carcasses is nauseating. What was worse is that they were so thick that the outer layer of those bastards had many live ones stuck to the dead base coat. Moving legs everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Nice .... hopefully we get some decent rain over a period of time instead of the one shot wonders recently. Side note - Work had me in Okeechobee today and the Love Bugs were out of control. My home is just 25 miles east from there and the difference astonished me as last year it was bad all over. I literally had to stop three times at gas stations to scrape them off and then wash the windshield. (windshield wiper fluid does nothing). Then to the car wash I went tonight. My truck was BLACK. The smell of the buring carcasses is nauseating. What was worse is that they were so thick that the outer layer of those bastards had many live ones stuck to the dead base coat. Moving legs everywhere. The GFS has the feature hanging around, so hopefully it will bring several days of rain and storms. As for the love bugs. here in Lakeland we had about a week of love bugs and they never did get that bad. They are pretty much gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 The GFS has the feature hanging around, so hopefully it will bring several days of rain and storms. As for the love bugs. here in Lakeland we had about a week of love bugs and they never did that bad. They are pretty much gone now. I took this pic with my phone today right near the East shore of Lake Okeechobee. AFTER having scraped and washed the shield twice. Epic Love Bugs. The pic does not do justice! The wipers just make it worse as all of you probably know. Thus, I did not hit the wipers once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Boy does that pic look familiar. When I lived down south had to do the same thing. Keep stopping at the gas stations to clean off the windows. Try some RainX. Its an oil based product that helps some. They aren't that bad up here yet. Although yesterday a swarm came through and for about 5 minutes they were everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I took this pic with my phone today right near the East shore of Lake Okeechobee. AFTER having scraped and washed the shield twice. Epic Love Bugs. The pic does not do justice! The wipers just make it worse as all of you probably know. Thus, I did not hit the wipers once! Ugh, yea I remember those scenes. Hopefully, the love bugs are done for May in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I took this pic with my phone today right near the East shore of Lake Okeechobee. AFTER having scraped and washed the shield twice. Epic Love Bugs. The pic does not do justice! The wipers just make it worse as all of you probably know. Thus, I did not hit the wipers once! That's insane. I can't believe I've never seen one being down here almost 3 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 That's insane. I can't believe I've never seen one being down here almost 3 years now. I'm sure your mad your missing all the fun with the Love Bugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 A nice severe storm about 15 miles to my east near Orlando, so close yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 A nice severe storm about 15 miles to my east near Orlando, so close yet so far I squeezed out a lucky 10th in PSL. Grass was beginning to look fugly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I'm sure your mad your missing all the fun with the Love Bugs. LOL, I am. I feel like a jilted girl at the prom. I'm going to Tampa on Saturday, taking the train. Hopefully I'll see some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 LOL, I am. I feel like a jilted girl at the prom. I'm going to Tampa on Saturday, taking the train. Hopefully I'll see some! You will have to put some in a jar and bring them back to South Florida. Hopefully you will see some good storms when you visit Tampa!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 20% POP from MLB for interior areas today. Anyone who gets under a boundry collision is going to see a good storm. I was fortunate enough to experince yesterdays storm in Orlando. Absolutley incredible lightning strikes in and around the Orlando airport just after 6pm. Areas around Conway saw .5-.75" of rain with areas just west in downtown receiving less than .10 . I think the threat today is slightly west of yesterdays action. I would suspect along and West of I-4 to be the primary focus area for today. Numerous reports from 5/11 of small hail and gusty winds across eastern areas of Orlando. I had one large branch that was knocked down in my backyard. I would estimate winds gusted to approx 45-50 mph at my location. Not any stronger than a typical afternoon thunderstrom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 121759Z - 122000Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING ASSIMILATED WITH 17Z SFC OBSERVATIONS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THIS HAS OCCURRED AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BENEATH A MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT -- I.E. 700-500-MB LAPSE RATE OF 6.6 C PER KM BASED ON 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATING/ENHANCING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FIRSTLY...AN ELONGATED NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND EMANATING FROM A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE SERN PENINSULA...AND IS SHIFTING SWWD. INTERSECTING THIS BAND ARE N-S-ORIENTED CONVERGENCE-ENHANCED CUMULUS LINES OVER THE SRN PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED INITIATING AT THE INTERSECTION POINTS OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS MOVING SWD...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE OFF THE WRN FLORIDA COAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE DEGREE OF UPWARD POTENTIAL BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION IS ANTICIPATED...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED NNWLY FLOW OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF ANY SVR THREAT...A WW IS UNLIKELY. ..COHEN.. 05/12/2011 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Yea it's wicked hot and humid today. Boomers wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 20% POP from MLB for interior areas today. Anyone who gets under a boundry collision is going to see a good storm. I was fortunate enough to experince yesterdays storm in Orlando. Absolutley incredible lightning strikes in and around the Orlando airport just after 6pm. Areas around Conway saw .5-.75" of rain with areas just west in downtown receiving less than .10 . I think the threat today is slightly west of yesterdays action. I would suspect along and West of I-4 to be the primary focus area for today. Numerous reports from 5/11 of small hail and gusty winds across eastern areas of Orlando. I had one large branch that was knocked down in my backyard. I would estimate winds gusted to approx 45-50 mph at my location. Not any stronger than a typical afternoon thunderstrom. I hope your right, that would bring some action into my neck of the woods. Some storms are now starting to pop now between Orlando and Ocala. The next few days look like some afternoon storms will be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Besides the Afternoon SB storms the next few days, it's still looking like the week-end and into early next week will bring the prospect of some unsettled weather and some strong storms to Florida. This afternoons Melbourne AFD brings this up. SAT-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PROGGED...500MB BELOW 5760 METERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONTS IS DIFFICULT...HENCE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHER POPS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE RESULTING INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS WITH QUITE STRONG STORMS As a side note, I see that the high fiber diet the NWS Miami had a while back has made it to the Tampa office. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVERHEAD AND HAVE INCREASED POOPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY MOST AREAS EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD. WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I hope your right, that would bring some action into my neck of the woods. Some storms are now starting to pop now between Orlando and Ocala. The next few days look like some afternoon storms will be around. ECSB now moving across Orange/Osceola Counties. Lake/Sumte/Polk looks like the best bet for some boundry interaction as we head towards 6-7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I can hear the thunder but storm motion is SSW so I don't think they'll get over this way. Still plenty of time for something to form north of me. C'mon baby one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 20% POP from MLB for interior areas today. Anyone who gets under a boundry collision is going to see a good storm. I was fortunate enough to experince yesterdays storm in Orlando. Absolutley incredible lightning strikes in and around the Orlando airport just after 6pm. Areas around Conway saw .5-.75" of rain with areas just west in downtown receiving less than .10 . I think the threat today is slightly west of yesterdays action. I would suspect along and West of I-4 to be the primary focus area for today. Numerous reports from 5/11 of small hail and gusty winds across eastern areas of Orlando. I had one large branch that was knocked down in my backyard. I would estimate winds gusted to approx 45-50 mph at my location. Not any stronger than a typical afternoon thunderstrom. That storm looked pretty intense on radar. Glad someone got a little rain but that lightning is kind of scary being how dry it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 92 degrees and my AC takes a dump. Grrr. Tech was just here two weeks ago and everything was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 ECSB now moving across Orange/Osceola Counties. Lake/Sumte/Polk looks like the best bet for some boundry interaction as we head towards 6-7pm. I think your right again.. Just looking at things and it appears the boundaries will indeed collide over Polk this evening. I am hoping I see some decent action like you did yesterday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 92 degrees and my AC takes a dump. Grrr. Tech was just here two weeks ago and everything was fine. I had mine conk out in December when I was using the heat. Glad I don't have to worry about my AC, we tied a record high in Lakeland at 95 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 ECSB pushing inland around the Econ/StJohns River in Orange and Seminole County. Farther south the ECSB is lagging a bit behind but still is pushing west of MLB into Osceola County at this time. I think Metro Orlando will be the big winner for the sea breeze collision today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Had a real nice cell just miss me to the south. Dammit I really hope I can get something tomorrow because after that it dries up again. Looks like the middle to eastern third should get it today. Radar is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Had a real nice cell just miss me to the south. Dammit I really hope I can get something tomorrow because after that it dries up again. Looks like the middle to eastern third should get it today. Radar is looking good. Yes, looks like a nice North South Line lining up in the middle of the state. I can hear the thunder to my south and see some storms have gone severe in South Polk and NW of Orlando. It looks like parts of the state will have a shot at some strong to severe the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Ok, I know it's the 16 day GFS but there has been talk about the chances of an early season system this year and the GFS has been showing this the last few runs. Interesting to see how and if this pans out. http://mag.ncep.noaa...&fcast=Loop+All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 ECSB pushing inland around the Econ/StJohns River in Orange and Seminole County. Farther south the ECSB is lagging a bit behind but still is pushing west of MLB into Osceola County at this time. I think Metro Orlando will be the big winner for the sea breeze collision today. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 745 PM EDT for central Orange and north central Osceola counties... At 708 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to detect a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Pine Castle... or near Oak Ridge... moving east at 5 mph. Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Orlando... Edgewood... Buena Ventura lakes... Belle Isle... Orlando International Airport... Lake Mary Jane... Conway and Azalea Park. Lat... Lon 2857 8117 2830 8117 2835 8152 2853 8152 time... Mot... loc 2309z 270deg 5kt 2844 8140 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 745 PM EDT for central Orange and north central Osceola counties... At 708 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to detect a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Pine Castle... or near Oak Ridge... moving east at 5 mph. Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Orlando... Edgewood... Buena Ventura lakes... Belle Isle... Orlando International Airport... Lake Mary Jane... Conway and Azalea Park. Lat... Lon 2857 8117 2830 8117 2835 8152 2853 8152 time... Mot... loc 2309z 270deg 5kt 2844 8140 Orlando area has a couple cells severe now, they did indeed get the big storms today. It looks like the East side of the state will get the strongest storms the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 14, 2011 Author Share Posted May 14, 2011 Dry as a bone on the Treasure Coast (humidity is on the upswing). This weekend not looking promising anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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