flwxwatcher45 Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 You and me both. I think by the end of the week the last of the green grass will be fading. Same here, not much green left in the lawn and rain chances look pretty scarce down the road . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Got a decent shower last night. Rained for about 45 minutes or so. Got wet working a flight at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 It looks like Friday has a chance of some storms, then back to the hot dry weather. A tidbit from this afternoons MLB AFD. 00Z FRI-12Z SAT... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BY DAYBREAK FRI...PULLED ALONG BY A 100KT ZONAL JET. THIS WILL ALLOW H100-H70 WINDS TO VEER TO THE S AND PUSH THE REMNANT MOISTURE BAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE TROF BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT AS WELL...THROUGH MOS POPS HAVE RETREATED SLIGHTLY FROM THE 12Z RUN. 20-30PCT DISTRIBUTION LOOKS FINE FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER AS GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT -10C TO -12C TEMPS AT H50. MAX/MIN TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (L/M80S AND L/M60S). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 4, 2011 Author Share Posted May 4, 2011 I noticed a good sized anvil as I got home tonight waaay out to my NW. Radar shows a storm 80-90 miles from me. It is amazing how far the eye can see in the flatlands Just 14 days shy of the earliest onset of the rainy season IMBY (11 years back). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 I noticed a good sized anvil as I got home tonight waaay out to my NW. Radar shows a storm 80-90 miles from me. It is amazing how far the eye can see in the flatlands Just 14 days shy of the earliest onset of the rainy season IMBY (11 years back). Yes, Florida being so flat you can see the bigger storm tops miles away. May can be an interesting month, of course if May ends up being dry, it's said that it increases the risk of a landfalling storm to Florida.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 I noticed a good sized anvil as I got home tonight waaay out to my NW. Radar shows a storm 80-90 miles from me. It is amazing how far the eye can see in the flatlands Just 14 days shy of the earliest onset of the rainy season IMBY (11 years back). I remember about 5 or 6 years ago I drove to California from NJ. Took Rt. 80 all the way out. While in Wyoming I saw some mountains to my left and some mountains to my right. I looked at a map to see what mountains they were. Turns out, the mountains to my left were 70 miles away and the mountains to my right were 80 miles away. LOL. I could have sworn they were maybe 20 miles away at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 I remember about 5 or 6 years ago I drove to California from NJ. Took Rt. 80 all the way out. While in Wyoming I saw some mountains to my left and some mountains to my right. I looked at a map to see what mountains they were. Turns out, the mountains to my left were 70 miles away and the mountains to my right were 80 miles away. LOL. I could have sworn they were maybe 20 miles away at the most. That's funny you mention that about mountains. A long time ago on a trip from Ohio to Colorado you could start to see the Rocky's about halfway across Kansas . It still took a long time to get there but it was cool to see. I also saw a documentary about the blue sprites the form above thunderstorms way up in the atmosphere. They actually set the camera's up in the Rocky's and look back east to the storms in Kansas and Nebraska to study them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 That's funny you mention that about mountains. A long time ago on a trip from Ohio to Colorado you could start to see the Rocky's about halfway across Kansas . It still took a long time to get there but it was cool to see. I also saw a documentary about the blue sprites the form above thunderstorms way up in the atmosphere. They actually set the camera's up in the Rocky's and look back east to the storms in Kansas and Nebraska to study them. Kansas is as flat as you get.. It's a great storm chasing state. On another note, it's nice to see some storms on the local radar!! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Just .10 inches of rain in the rain bucket from todays system. J.B. was talking about a early season development in the Caribbean in his blog today. Maybe Florida will get a visitor from the Tropics later this month to get things going. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Humidity is creeping up and becoming a bit more constant. A few more weeks .... until then Chamber of Commerce wx still rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Humidity is creeping up and becoming a bit more constant. A few more weeks .... until then Chamber of Commerce wx still rules Keep the dry weather going. A TC will wipe out the drought eventually. Still no need to use the A/C, no expensive utility bills, no mosquitoes, no 75 dew points, etc. etc. The average start of wet season in Miami is May 20th, so we still should have a good 2 weeks left to go, on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Keep the dry weather going. A TC will wipe out the drought eventually. Still no need to use the A/C, no expensive utility bills, no mosquitoes, no 75 dew points, etc. etc. The average start of wet season in Miami is May 20th, so we still should have a good 2 weeks left to go, on average. That is interesting. I did some basic research on the beginning of the wet season on the Treasure Coast and it is posted in the initial post in this thread. May 20th is roughly the average here (May 25th). I did not look up Miami but I can only assume that you get it a couple weeks before me (Steady dew points of 70 and above). Keep us posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Keep the dry weather going. A TC will wipe out the drought eventually. Still no need to use the A/C, no expensive utility bills, no mosquitoes, no 75 dew points, etc. etc. The average start of wet season in Miami is May 20th, so we still should have a good 2 weeks left to go, on average. Depends on where you are located. Fire danger is very real up here. This past front didn't get squat. Can smell smoke every time I go outside. So bring on the rain, and lots of it. Also, have you really not used your AC yet? We have had consistent upper 80's and low 90's here. AC has been on for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Depends on where you are located. Fire danger is very real up here. This past front didn't get squat. Can smell smoke every time I go outside. So bring on the rain, and lots of it. Also, have you really not used your AC yet? We have had consistent upper 80's and low 90's here. AC has been on for a while. Same here, we need rain.. the smell of smoke and the haze in the air is a reminder of the wildfires. Hopefully an early start to the rainy season and an early season tropical system will come Floridas way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 93 today with a DP around 64. Slowly getting there. SB collision should be over my house this evening. Hopefully a little shower will pop up. Have a chance of rain all this week so it won't be long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 93 today with a DP around 64. Slowly getting there. SB collision should be over my house this evening. Hopefully a little shower will pop up. Have a chance of rain all this week so it won't be long. Yes, the dewpoint is back above 60 again and the PW is rising and forecast to be above 1.50 tomorrow. Like you said, starting tomorrow we should start seeing some SB showers and storms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 This afternoons AFD from the Melbourne office sounds rather bullish for precip for EC FL this week-end. FRI-MON...EWD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI...WITH GRDL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS DOWN COMPLETELY. WHILE THE ECM IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN THE RATE AT WHICH HGTS FALL OVER FL...THEY BOTH SHOW INCREASING MEAN MOISTURE IN A DVLPG SWRLY FLOW PATTERN AS H50 TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SE/FL. THIS SHOULD PORTEND HIGHER CHCS FOR SHRA/TS...AND FAVORING THE CTRL AND ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEST. IF THE ADVERTISED SOLN MAINTAINS ITSELF...FULLY EXPECT TO SEE POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND GET BUMPED WELL INTO THE SCT (40-50) RANGE...AND PSBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Rainy season outlook from NWS Miami office. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mfl/articulate/RainySeasonOutlook/RainySeasonOutlook2011/player.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 Rainy season outlook from NWS Miami office. http://www.srh.noaa....011/player.html I listened to the whole presentation. Interesting to say the least although there is obviously low confidence in the forecast during the wet season. Major lean on analogs. Makes it more fun if you ask me. Then, you throw in what the tropics might do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Well summer is here. Went for a walk around 11 PM tonight and was dripping sweat when I got back. LOL. I was gone maybe 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 LOL I get sweaty just walking out to the porch over the past 3 days. It's been brutal. This AM brought visible smoke from the fires into the neighborhoods. In Tamarac i literally thought someones house was on fire until I remembered the morning news mention of the brushfire. Its even barely visible over a retention pond outside my Boca office. We'll be influenced by a hi moving in from the panhandle which should change our winds to easterly, at least for a day or 2, just enough to clear out the smoke. Humidity is up there but I don't think its quite time yet. I bet we will be there in 2 weeks though. Mentioning the large anvils out in the glades, I saw one in particular one afternoon a week or 2 back that was almost perfect in shape, I go and look on radar and the giant signature is just south of Lake O! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I listened to the whole presentation. Interesting to say the least although there is obviously low confidence in the forecast during the wet season. Major lean on analogs. Makes it more fun if you ask me. Then, you throw in what the tropics might do. Yes, it was an interesting presentation. The Tropics input this year will be very interesting. The ITCZ since winter has been really active and if that can keep up once the ITCZ moves north, hopefully Florida can at least get some strong tropical waves to help the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 The skies really hazy this morning. An interesting note from the Tampa NWS office about this. ON A SIDE NOTE...INTERESTING FEATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS THE BAND OF SMOKE EXTENDING FROM AROUND GAINESVILLE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE FROM THE LARGE FIRE IN SOUTH GEORGIA. THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MENTIONING SMOKE OR HAZE. HOWEVER... THIS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD SO WILL LIKELY SEE THE SKY BECOME A RATHER MILKY WHITE FOR A LITTLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 It looks like the late week-end into early next week could be wet in Florida. Both the GFS and the EURO show this and the Melbourne and Tampa offices mentioned this in the morning AFD'S ... Hoping the trend keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Well summer is here. Went for a walk around 11 PM tonight and was dripping sweat when I got back. LOL. I was gone maybe 20 minutes. Not quite that bad yet here in Central Florida. Warm days and the nights have been plesant. The humidity is picking up though, so it won't be long. Of course that's my kind of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Not quite that bad yet here in Central Florida. Warm days and the nights have been plesant. The humidity is picking up though, so it won't be long. Of course that's my kind of weather. I like it too. It doesn't get to me until the end of August. By then I'm ready to shoot people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I like it too. It doesn't get to me until the end of August. By then I'm ready to shoot people. That's how I used to be when I first moved to Florida. It took a few years for me to get used to the length of time the heat and humidity lasted. Of course, South Florida gets the muggy conditions earlier and lasts much longer then here in Central Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 You can smell the smoke today in Miami from the everglades fire. Looks like with the easterlies cranking up the air should clear up a bit, but right now (and even moreso this morning) it's been very hazy and smoky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Sat pic from NWS Tampa showing the smoke and haze in Florida from the Georgia fires . This afternoons AFD mentions the haze from the fires have made down to Ft Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Things are actually a bit interesting in FL for this time of year. It looks like with the continued light breeze, drought conditions, high temps and low RH values, fire weather should continue for at least another day or two. The fire in Big Cypress has burned almost 36,000 acres now, and is 60-percent contained. Once the seabreeze weakens in S. Fl this evening, the east coast metros will probably smell the smoke again. Sunset may be quite nice, and a bit more red than usual, with the hazy / smoky look in the air to the west. We also have an ocean swell incoming Wed night, and continuing for quite a while, compliments the large mid-Atlantic cyclone churning right now. For those beach-goers out there, it could make things more interesting than the normal late spring / early summer flat seas. See the wave-watch 3 forecast to see when it will get to your area: https://www.fnmoc.na...12&set=SeaState Finally, we may be looking at some wet and cooler weather this weekend into early next week, thanks to an unseasonably deep trough projected to develop over the ern United States. Today's ECMWF was particularly aggressive, with the low forecast to be centered over north FL 12Z next Tues! A non-tropical synoptic low pressure that far south is truly extraordinary for this time of year. Also, compliments blocking over the Atlantic, any system that develops will be very slow moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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