toad strangler Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Historically for my exact location on the Treasure Coast the much anticipated wet season (steady dew points of 70 or higher) starts on or about May 25 and ends on or about October 17. This does not count any tropical activity! Since 2000 this date for my area has started and ended as follows: 2000 - 6/6 - 10/19 2001 - 5/22 - 10/26 2002 - 5/30 - 10/16 2003 - 5/22 - 10/15 2004 - 6/1 - 10/14 2005 - 5/25 - 10/15 2006 - 6/1 - 9/28 2007 - 6/11 - 11/3 2008 - 5/19 - 10/15 2009 - 5/18 - 9/30 2010 - 5/25 - 9/30 That is pretty consistent with a spread of less than 3 weeks at the start. The end is a bit more scattered about. DISCUSS your area and the anticipation of great daily storms that are just over 3 months away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Unfortunately my weather software, Weatherlink doesn't break it down by date. I can see it in graph form but not in text. Going back to 03 my location just SE of Ocala it roughly starts the 2nd week in June and runs till mid to late September. Probably a little early to start talking about the rainy season but it's nice to dream. The squall line a couple weeks ago was a nice reminder of what is to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Unfortunately my weather software, Weatherlink doesn't break it down by date. I can see it in graph form but not in text. Going back to 03 my location just SE of Ocala it roughly starts the 2nd week in June and runs till mid to late September. Probably a little early to start talking about the rainy season but it's nice to dream. The squall line a couple weeks ago was a nice reminder of what is to come. Yea, it is nice to dream and it appears we have a really long stretch of dry weather ahead before the rainy pattern and good t-storms kick in. Maybe we will get lucky and get a good gulf storm before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 what are the temps like in at the end of March and beginning of april and around july 4th in Orlando? Going to Braves spring traoning end of march and disney world end of June thru July4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Unfortunately my weather software, Weatherlink doesn't break it down by date. I can see it in graph form but not in text. Going back to 03 my location just SE of Ocala it roughly starts the 2nd week in June and runs till mid to late September. Probably a little early to start talking about the rainy season but it's nice to dream. The squall line a couple weeks ago was a nice reminder of what is to come. The NWS has data for my area and many others going back into the 1950's. It was fun pouring over it for a half hour. This will be my second full season here in FL and it has been quite interesting researching some basic data as far as the onset and ending to the season. We are only 14 weeks or so away and closer for those in true South FL. Its never too early! I for one am ready to sweat bullets again after enjoying the cool and dry conditions the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 what are the temps like in at the end of March and beginning of april and around july 4th in Orlando? Going to Braves spring traoning end of march and disney world end of June thru July4th End of March and beginning of April is Chamber of Commerce weather. Low 80's for highs and low 60's for lows. Give or take a few degrees there. July 4th you are sweatin bullets my friend, but you are also very likely to get some good thunderstorms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 End of March and beginning of April is Chamber of Commerce weather. Low 80's for highs and low 60's for lows. Give or take a few degrees there. July 4th you are sweatin bullets my friend, but you are also very likely to get some good thunderstorms too. I was born in Vero beach and played baseball in Miami for a couple of weeks but don't know the averages. Lived in NC since I was 3 months old but visit Florida every so often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I love coastal Florida weather in the spring and summer! My parents live right at the edge of Sarasota's southern city limits in Osprey and have been in that area since the mid 80's. Always some kind of weather going on, not to mention one of the best beaches in the country at Siesta Key Beach! I do want to come down for a hurricane though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I love coastal Florida weather in the spring and summer! My parents live right at the edge of Sarasota's southern city limits in Osprey and have been in that area since the mid 80's. Always some kind of weather going on, not to mention one of the best beaches in the country at Siesta Key Beach! I do want to come down for a hurricane though. Hey Steve. Don't think you want to spend the hurricane at Osprey. Just a little further inland would be a good idea. The hurricane shield has been up for a while so we may be due this year. But then again we say that every year. Man it's the middle of February and we're talking tropics and rainy season already. Bring it on baby! This chamber of commerce weather sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 No, I'd rather not be in the path of one but I'd sure like to experience some of the wind and rain though! My parents have been lucky, they haven't had any damage since they've been down there. One year it tore up the pool screen but that's about it. They're about .5-1 mile from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 No, I'd rather not be in the path of one but I'd sure like to experience some of the wind and rain though! My parents have been lucky, they haven't had any damage since they've been down there. One year it tore up the pool screen but that's about it. They're about .5-1 mile from the coast. I grew up in Sarasota and the closest we got to a hurricane was Charley. It was pretty fun riding my bike down the street with the wind pushing me the entire way! We don't get too much in the way of tropical activity. Even the afternoon thunderstorms have seemed to have lost a little bit of their punch from a decade ago. Oh, and I agree with Siesta Key being AWESOME! I lived 5 miles from there! It was great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 That's great! Another place I like around there is Blackburn Point Road in Osprey, all of those huge houses... must be nice is all I can say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Hey Steve. Don't think you want to spend the hurricane at Osprey. Just a little further inland would be a good idea. The hurricane shield has been up for a while so we may be due this year. But then again we say that every year. Man it's the middle of February and we're talking tropics and rainy season already. Bring it on baby! This chamber of commerce weather sucks. Yes, this chamber of commerce does suck. I am ready for the Rainy/tropical season and your right, Florida has been lucky the last few years so you would think things might start averaging out. Interesting to note, is that we have now gone 5 years without a major hurricane hit on the U.S. We have never gone 6 years without a major hurricane strike on the U.S.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Current ENSO models are forecasting a neutral phase for the start of tropical season. Beyond that who knows. At least it's better then La Nina. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Spring has sprung and we are just 8 weeks or so away from the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Spring has sprung and we are just 8 weeks or so away from the good stuff. Counting the days until the action really starts. The GFS has been hinting at some action in about the 7-10 day range the last several runs. Hopefully it will pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I see the Japan Quake jolted the water table in Florida. I knew the quake in Hati had done that but I figured the quake in Japan was to far away to alter the water table.. http://www.theledger.com/article/20110320/NEWS/103205048/1374?Title=Officials-Japan-Quake-Jolted-South-Florida-Water-Table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I see the Japan Quake jolted the water table in Florida. I knew the quake in Hati had done that but I figured the quake in Japan was to far away to alter the water table.. http://www.theledger...ida-Water-Table Yea I heard about that. Crazy isn't it? I guess that's what happens when the planet's bell gets rung. LOL. I'm getting very close to putting the AC on. The heat is building up inside the apartment and from 4-7 in the afternoon it's 85-86 degrees. I say another 2 weeks and it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm curious if anyone feels the same way I do about this. I love when the heat first comes in and I don't even mind the humidity come June and July. But I DREAD August and September (other than a hurricane). By that time I'm so sick of the heat and humidity, I'm ready to shoot people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yea I heard about that. Crazy isn't it? I guess that's what happens when the planet's bell gets rung. LOL. I'm getting very close to putting the AC on. The heat is building up inside the apartment and from 4-7 in the afternoon it's 85-86 degrees. I say another 2 weeks and it's on. Already there. About the past week I have kicked mine on about 4:30. Runs till about 7 then shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm curious if anyone feels the same way I do about this. I love when the heat first comes in and I don't even mind the humidity come June and July. But I DREAD August and September (other than a hurricane). By that time I'm so sick of the heat and humidity, I'm ready to shoot people. When I first moved down here from Chicago, I felt the exact same way. Not that any one day was warmer then up north, it was just I wasn't used to the constant 6+ months of warmth and humidity. I used to look forward to the cooler winter months and LMAO at the locals getting all bundled up. As the years have gone by I have adjusted and love the warmer months and can longer tolerate cooler Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yea I heard about that. Crazy isn't it? I guess that's what happens when the planet's bell gets rung. LOL. I'm getting very close to putting the AC on. The heat is building up inside the apartment and from 4-7 in the afternoon it's 85-86 degrees. I say another 2 weeks and it's on. No AC yet for me, it's just starting to feel comfortable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 No AC yet for me, it's just starting to feel comfortable to me Not close to AC yet for me either. Plenty of low 80's lately on the TC but hardly a hint of humidity yet. Just flat out beautiful and completely boring weather! This is just my second go around but I think I am getting the "feel" for the much more subtle changes in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not close to AC yet for me either. Plenty of low 80's lately on the TC but hardly a hint of humidity yet. Just flat out beautiful and completely boring weather! This is just my second go around but I think I am getting the "feel" for the much more subtle changes in seasons. Same here Low 80's with no humidity and pleasant evenings. It does take a few years to get used to really not having any defined seasons but I think you will get used to it as the years pass. Though like I said, I find I tolerate the cold a lot less as the years have gone on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Moistening low levels + cooling upper levels = risk of convection statewide Mon and Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Moistening low levels + cooling upper levels = risk of convection statewide Mon and Tue. I have seen that. The GFS has also been hinting at a wet system for Florida in the 7-10 day range as well. This time of the year I will take any rain we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The EURO is treding toward the GFS in bringing higher rain chances to Florida early next week. Both the GFS and the EURO also bring a strong system out of the Gulf of Mexico late next week/early week-end. Something to watch as far as severe weather chances at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 The EURO is treding toward the GFS in bringing higher rain chances to Florida early next week. Both the GFS and the EURO also bring a strong system out of the Gulf of Mexico late next week/early week-end. Something to watch as far as severe weather chances at least. Damn ..... the only reason I am bummed is that I am leaving for a road trip to NJ early nextt Friday with kids in tow and want no part of bad driving conditions . Otherwise, I would be looking forward to bad rainy / severeish wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Damn ..... the only reason I am bummed is that I am leaving for a road trip to NJ early nextt Friday with kids in tow and want no part of bad driving conditions . Otherwise, I would be looking forward to bad rainy / severeish wx. Well Maybe the worst will be over before you leave.. The GFS has trended faster this last run. This mornings Melbourne AFD had a nice write up on the rain chances next week as well as the potential severe weather maker late week. Hopefully U-THANT, a met from the Melbourne office will post and keep us informed as the event draws closer. TUE-SAT...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE SE STATES AND FLORIDA THIS PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LAST FRONT WILL LINGER AS LOW LVL FLOW TURNS ONSHORE WITH HIGHS PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE. AN MID LYR TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LWR GRT LAKES WED WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION TRAILING DOWN THE SE ATLC SEABOARD INTO N FL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WED. THE REAL PLAYER FOR THE WEEK IS EXPECTED LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLOSED LOW TO 542 DM AT H5 AND A SUB 1000 MB LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE GULF AND TRACKING NE INTO SC AND GA. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL BRING AN ROUND OF STORMS(...POSSIBLY STRONG OR SEVERE) TOWARD LATE WEEK IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH SVR PROSPECTS BUT DOES STILL SHOW A STORMY PERIOD THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE BROAD UPR TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNTIL DRYING ENSUES BEHIND THE LAST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Well Maybe the worst will be over before you leave.. The GFS has trended faster this last run. This mornings Melbourne AFD had a nice write up on the rain chances next week as well as the potential severe weather maker late week. Hopefully U-THANT, a met from the Melbourne office will post and keep us informed as the event draws closer. looks like the whole coast may be swamped next Friday / Sat. Maybe I'll rent a boat instead of a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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