CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Did the Euro continue the damaging wind threat for Saturday? The ensembles seems like they keep the wind threat going, although the strongest winds may be down in the MA. What I noticed is that the strongest LLJ may be to our southwest, but the better mixing occurs in sne. So what you lose on one end, you gain in another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The ensembles seems like they keep the wind threat going, although the strongest winds may be down in the MA. What I noticed is that the strongest LLJ may be to our southwest, but the better mixing occurs in sne. So what you lose on one end, you gain in another. Hopefully we'll get better winds this weekend than Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 thread title could be pretty appropriate for next week...not certain about the specific snow chances but certainly lots to watch for with that and then high winds, couple of shots of arctic air, OES (MBY i suppose) potential. better than 48F and partly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hopefully we'll get better winds this weekend than Monday night. What is your snow depth currently/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 thread title could be pretty appropriate for next week...not certain about the specific snow chances but certainly lots to watch for with that and then high winds, couple of shots of arctic air, OES (MYB i suppose) potential. better than 48F and partly sunny. I see things...I hear things.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 The ensembles seems like they keep the wind threat going, although the strongest winds may be down in the MA. What I noticed is that the strongest LLJ may be to our southwest, but the better mixing occurs in sne. So what you lose on one end, you gain in another. As long as numerous trees are knocked down I will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I see things...I hear things.... i don't know what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Lol. Winter's full fury is about to unleashed here in GC with the temp now at a frigid 32.6 off a painfully cold 35.8 high. Back below freezing here... 31.3F...but we did go over 40 41.3F Yech Off to go skiing soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I see weenies...I want weenies.... Go for 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 [quote name='messenger' timestamp='1297896165' post='474800'] The futility in trying to even roughly guess where the storm is going to end up in 5-6 days is lost on most. What I do like is that it's cool/cold and the ski areas should be a blast over school vacation week. Now just to find a few days without uber winds. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yes, Guidance is all over the board should be ironed out by Sunday/Monday possibly........ , You heading up to SR? I don't think so. Maybe looking at Shawnee or Loon. Not sure I'm up for the ride this time, may save those trips for March. i don't know what that means "My voices know me better than anyone else, and they also protect and comfort me," http://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/200701/in-your-head-hearing-voices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Go for 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Go for 'em. Not bad at all. LOL... all different shapes and sizes..small, long, curved to the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I see things...I hear things.... I'm not really sure. I set out a board at the start of the season. It ended up being in an area that would have net losses from the blowing of all the earlier storms. It's currently reading 23". So I guess that's a decent estimation since it was destined to be on the low-end given the blowing referenced above. Meanwhile, melt cancel. 31.9/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 thread title could be pretty appropriate for next week...not certain about the specific snow chances but certainly lots to watch for with that and then high winds, couple of shots of arctic air, OES (MBY i suppose) potential. better than 48F and partly sunny. Man I would love the 18z GFS a hair north. A nice long duration snow, with a little OES..like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 For a day that was supposed to be the start of the torch..today might actually have come in below normal for most places.. That said the next 2 days will be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 34.7/16, high of 41...Heavy Heavy Snow on the way in 14 hours. Oh, I mean 114 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 For a day that was supposed to be the start of the torch..today might actually have come in below normal for most places.. That said the next 2 days will be brutal Yeah it was chilly here or I thought it might be a little warmer, whats left of the snow pack here might be in serious jeopardy in the next few days, but I am ok with that its been an impressive stretch of time, with the snow pack in place. Some weenies might luck out and when the worst is over they migh retain somthin worthy of being called a snow packt, while others just have brown grass and mud with a few snow patches LOL. It would be nice to melt the snow of the running track, it has been a long time since I steped foot on that track and atleast I could get a decent workout in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The synoptic pattern over the CONUS on the models reminds me a lot of the Feb 22, 2008 event. The models back in that one were having a hard time deciding if it would whiff south or be in one main part or two parts. In the end it got us pretty good and came in one piece. But it had some big confluence out ahead of the main wave. The main wave ended up proving strong enough to push the precip into the region. Obviously the details aren't the same, but it seems on these setups with a potent wave coming out of the plains, they will nudge the confluence further north than what models try to play it in the medium range. That was the basis of my thoughts earlier when I said my gut feeling is we won't have to worry about suppression with this wave. Nice...I got 10" in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The snow is off the roofs, no more excuses for them. I'm just hoping mother nature doesn't bust this out at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Might be a perfect set up for big time black ice and rime ice just away from the water in the cp tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it will be fun to see who wins.....torch or glacier. Snow next week. Folks don't realize it but we ARE heading to the same pattern that existed 12/20-2/1. Book it. Some snow next week, bigger snows the week after. Get on my back...I knew in September and I know now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like it must have stayed cloudy here and high temps around freezing as there is little snow melt noted. Healthy base should have little problem weathering the adverse temps Thurs/Fri, at least there should be clouds and temps below freezing at night. Lots of action in the Sugarbush around here. (who will be the first filthy minded dweeb to have fun with that?) Actually think the gfs less supressed look is a better fit. Euros PV position seems pretty far south, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it will be fun to see who wins.....torch or glacier. Snow next week. Folks don't realize it but we ARE heading to the same pattern that existed 12/20-2/1. Book it. Some snow next week, bigger snows the week after. Get on my back...I knew in September and I know now.. Snow coming back, March Madness will have a special meaning this year. Then the big April Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think ForkyFork has a crush on SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it will be fun to see who wins.....torch or glacier. Snow next week. Folks don't realize it but we ARE heading to the same pattern that existed 12/20-2/1. Book it. Some snow next week, bigger snows the week after. Get on my back...I knew in September and I know now.. The 12z ECM is really picking up on the -NAO now....generally, the models have kept the poor Pacific pattern but are trending better with the Atlantic block. That could allow us to see some better events, and eventually we might get rid of the -PNA if the March analogs work out. For now, we just have to hope the Greenland block stays in place as we wait for the brutal cold air to flood Canada with the -EPO in the longer range. Looks like it must have stayed cloudy here and high temps around freezing as there is little snow melt noted. Healthy base should have little problem weathering the adverse temps Thurs/Fri, at least there should be clouds and temps below freezing at night. Lots of action in the Sugarbush around here. (who will be the first filthy minded dweeb to have fun with that?) Actually think the gfs less supressed look is a better fit. Euros PV position seems pretty far south, no? The Euro does seem anomalously far south with the PV, much more confluence than the GFS. It's trended stronger with the -NAO which is locking that vortex into SE Canada. I doubt the wave will have as much trouble amplifying as the Euro shows, I'm thinking we see something more like the 18z GFS but perhaps not quite as heavy on the QPF. In any case, certainly some cold air moving into the region next week as 850s approach -20C over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 12z ECM is really picking up on the -NAO now....generally, the models have kept the poor Pacific pattern but are trending better with the Atlantic block. That could allow us to see some better events, and eventually we might get rid of the -PNA if the March analogs work out. For now, we just have to hope the Greenland block stays in place as we wait for the brutal cold air to flood Canada with the -EPO in the longer range. Take a look at the H5 pattern around 12/19....amazingly similar. I honestly think we are in a repeat of that but of course sensible wx doesn't have to be identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Take a look at the H5 pattern around 12/19....amazingly similar. I honestly think we are in a repeat of that but of course sensible wx doesn't have to be identical. Can you or someone start a new thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Can you or someone start a new thread ? Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS locking onto our March lion at hr360. La la la lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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