cpickett79 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro ensembles really cooled off next week as well. The euro ensembles also a fairly cool in the extended. They also have some slight ridging over the southwest which is definitely a good thing if you want colder weather over the northeast. how bout storm chances..... at this point i'm more concerned (realizing cold is a prerequisite lol) with that by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 nothing here when it came threw Mostly evaporating before reaching the ground per surface obs. Binghamton did report light rain a few hours ago. The batch across NW CT might be strong enough to reach the ground,. The HRRR actually has some very light QPF over the next few hours across CT - a mix of rain and snow. http://rapidrefresh....ain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 i would rather have the system at 96hrs dig even more and become a bigger threat than tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 how bout storm chances..... at this point i'm more concerned (realizing cold is a prerequisite lol) with that by far. Well, there will be some given that pattern. We still may deal with some sort of inside runner, or low that moves overhead very late next week. Other than that, it looks decent going into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 i would rather have the system at 96hrs dig even more and become a bigger threat than tuesday It would end up as a little miller B nuke if it did that. And a really cold one too. Too bad there really isn't a lot of ridging to the west to push it further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 what the heck is this line of precip, nw sky is black like a tstorm heading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 couple sprinkles and pellets, im sure up by the good reverend there will be a brief snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Will...you think we drop below freezing early Sat after fropa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Man, the GFS is pretty wild with winds on Saturday morning. It also seemed to have moved south, for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 why does the euro amplify the northern stream so much? in response to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 -SN and some graupel here. Winter has returned with a vengeance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 tell me about it and the euro is stubborn and the GEM is inching that way. We will see sunday...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Some sleet pellets falling off the dome 33.9/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Actually more like graupel than sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The synoptic pattern over the CONUS on the models reminds me a lot of the Feb 22, 2008 event. The models back in that one were having a hard time deciding if it would whiff south or be in one main part or two parts. In the end it got us pretty good and came in one piece. But it had some big confluence out ahead of the main wave. The main wave ended up proving strong enough to push the precip into the region. Obviously the details aren't the same, but it seems on these setups with a potent wave coming out of the plains, they will nudge the confluence further north than what models try to play it in the medium range. That was the basis of my thoughts earlier when I said my gut feeling is we won't have to worry about suppression with this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 -SN and some graupel here. Winter has returned with a vengeance! Right on cue with the BDL rare graupel ob.SPECI KBDL 162213Z 17009KT 10SM GS BKN060 OVC100 03/M09 A3016 RMK AO2 GSB12 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is a CT/RI jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Wife reported "hail" in Norwalk on the way to her car...(graupel most likely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 graupel, maybe some rain drops mixed in (about a half hour ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We are seeing the raw brutality of winters return today. I'm surprised CT schools are open Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We are seeing the raw brutality of winters return today. I'm surprised CT schools are open Thursday. The snow is off the roofs, no more excuses for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS is a CT/RI jackpot. GFS blows, 12Z it was 150 mi north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 The synoptic pattern over the CONUS on the models reminds me a lot of the Feb 22, 2008 event. The models back in that one were having a hard time deciding if it would whiff south or be in one main part or two parts. In the end it got us pretty good and came in one piece. But it had some big confluence out ahead of the main wave. The main wave ended up proving strong enough to push the precip into the region. Obviously the details aren't the same, but it seems on these setups with a potent wave coming out of the plains, they will nudge the confluence further north than what models try to play it in the medium range. That was the basis of my thoughts earlier when I said my gut feeling is we won't have to worry about suppression with this wave. I posted that same thing earlier..confluence is always too far south and strong at this time range. We should start seeing that edge north starting with 12z or 00z runs tomorrow/tomorrow nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The synoptic pattern over the CONUS on the models reminds me a lot of the Feb 22, 2008 event. The models back in that one were having a hard time deciding if it would whiff south or be in one main part or two parts. In the end it got us pretty good and came in one piece. But it had some big confluence out ahead of the main wave. The main wave ended up proving strong enough to push the precip into the region. Obviously the details aren't the same, but it seems on these setups with a potent wave coming out of the plains, they will nudge the confluence further north than what models try to play it in the medium range. That was the basis of my thoughts earlier when I said my gut feeling is we won't have to worry about suppression with this wave. I sort of recall the models whiffing south in that (I think the GFS??), but that was a good event. Just under 9" here iirc. I think we are seeing some sort of compromise taking place, with the 18z GFS. If I were a betting man, I would think the euro may come a little north at 00z, or at least perhaps become stronger with the second event. That doesn't mean sne ends up jackpotting or something like that, but I have a hard time with the euro depiction..at least imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS blows, 12Z it was 150 mi north The futility in trying to even roughly guess where the storm is going to end up in 5-6 days is lost on most. What I do like is that it's cool/cold and the ski areas should be a blast over school vacation week. Now just to find a few days without uber winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Did the Euro continue the damaging wind threat for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 -SN and some graupel here. Winter has returned with a vengeance! "Big winter incoming, Big Big Winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The futility in trying to even roughly guess where the storm is going to end up in 5-6 days is lost on most. What I do like is that it's cool/cold and the ski areas should be a blast over school vacation week. Now just to find a few days without uber winds. Yes, Guidance is all over the board should be ironed out by Sunday/Monday possibly........ , You heading up to SR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 pretty decent graupel shower yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We are seeing the raw brutality of winters return today. I'm surprised CT schools are open Thursday. Lol. Winter's full fury is about to unleashed here in GC with the temp now at a frigid 32.6 off a painfully cold 35.8 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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