CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Ukie and Canadian both seem like compromises...with Ukie a bit further N and GGEM a bit further south in that middle ground. I agree with Justin that a Ukie type solution of where the PV lobe sets up is probably not a bad idea to go with right now. We'll have to watch the Euro though closely...we still have to remember that this thing is 5+ days out...we started tracking it 2-3 days ago since the weather has been so boring. So its easy to fall into the trap of thinking solutions are locking in when in reality we still have an eternity (esp this winter) until we have any type of confidence. General pattern would certainly argue we have to worry about something further north like the GFS...but there isn't zero blocking and if that PV sets up in the right spot then it can push it decently south. 12z Ukie seems like a long duration event on e-wall. It's probably going to be a few more days before we know what will happen, given all the moving parts of the pattern. And what is with the arctic fluff that the euro has on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro brought the pv into New England and an inverted/norlun type trough with it...so it gave like 1-2" of powder with temps in the teens. Thicknesses were like 500dm. Oh that would be before the Monday night/Tuesday event.. I wasn't sure what the hell you meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS ensembles almost look like the Ukie fwiw, but I'm not sure I entirely trust the ensembles in this pattern 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The GFS long range is not much better. A big plains ridge gets going with troughing along the EC, however the axis is way too far east to be in a favorable position. Afterwards the ridge then slides eastward, we torch again and we have another round of storms which attemp to run into the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Oh that would be before the Monday night/Tuesday event.. I wasn't sure what the hell you meant No, its actually totally separate...its monday morning. Its not any of the overrunning stuff that some other models try to bring in before the main show. Its strictly a very cold upper level low going almost overhead but spawns some precip with it as it forms an inverted sfc trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z Ukie seems like a long duration event on e-wall. It's probably going to be a few more days before we know what will happen, given all the moving parts of the pattern. And what is with the arctic fluff that the euro has on Monday? I wonder if the Ukie also has the same arctic fluff job that the euro has monday but instead of suppressing the wave it actually just basically turns it into one long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The GFS long range is not much better. A big plains ridge gets going with troughing along the EC, however the axis is way too far east to be in a favorable position. Afterwards the ridge then slides eastward, we torch again and we have another round of storms which attemp to run into the ridge. I really would not worry about the long range op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro has some interesting changes days 9 and 10. Stil a mild day but look at the cold pattern setting up late in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I wonder if the Ukie also has the same arctic fluff job that the euro has monday but instead of suppressing the wave it actually just basically turns it into one long duration event Models do want to have a weak wave around Monday morning. Ukie actually hints at this. It's a weak wave that rides along the warm front, extending from the Plains low. The euro broke this low off and decided to give us a little fluff as it redevelops se of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Models do want to have a weak wave around Monday morning. Ukie actually hints at this. It's a weak wave that rides along the warm front, extending from the Plains low. The euro broke this low off and decided to give us a little fluff as it redevelops se of sne. Every inch counts for our march to and over 100 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Every inch counts for our crawl asymtotically to100 inches I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We certainly have 2 vastly differnt camps here and i really hate having the GFS on our side up here, But on that note, Its been this way all winter, We will know on sunday what the outcome will be tell me about it and the euro is stubborn and the GEM is inching that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z Ukie seems like a long duration event on e-wall. It's probably going to be a few more days before we know what will happen, given all the moving parts of the pattern. And what is with the arctic fluff that the euro has on Monday? Long duration event with 1"\day snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Long duration event with 1"\day snowfall rates. When you take into account the solar radiation during this increasing sun angle, you wind up with a zero-sum game on snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Every inch counts for our march to and over 100 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro ensembles north of the op and juicier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 box has no precip hmm Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Washington's Birthday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 box has no precip hmm Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Washington's Birthday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 39 They wrote this in the write-up though. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS PORTIONABOVE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE QUESTION ANDWILL DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE.WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FORPTYPE...THIS IS A DAY 6/7 FORECAST WITH MANY CHANGES LIKELY IN THENEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BELIEVE WINTRY PRECIP IS A FAIRLY SAFE BET...HOWEVER ANY MORE DETAIL WOULD PURELY BE SPECULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 box has no precip hmm Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Washington's Birthday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 39 Here is BOX afternoon AFD excerpt. They do mention the possible system: MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS PORTION ABOVE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE QUESTION AND WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR PTYPE...THIS IS A DAY 6/7 FORECAST WITH MANY CHANGES LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BELIEVE WINTRY PRECIP IS A FAIRLY SAFE BET...HOWEVER ANY MORE DETAIL WOULD PURELY BE SPECULATION. TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT...RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro ensembles north of the op and juicier? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 ??? They definitely aren't as suppressed as the OP run, but still enough that we get whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 that part is from last night though and this morning i had chance pops which made sense.. Well see when they update the long term They wrote this in the write-up though. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS PORTIONABOVE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE QUESTION ANDWILL DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE.WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FORPTYPE...THIS IS A DAY 6/7 FORECAST WITH MANY CHANGES LIKELY IN THENEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BELIEVE WINTRY PRECIP IS A FAIRLY SAFE BET...HOWEVER ANY MORE DETAIL WOULD PURELY BE SPECULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 They definitely aren't as suppressed as the OP run, but still enough that we get whiffed. Damn..well plenty of time to work that out for the better. No worries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 that part is from last night though and this morning i had chance pops which made sense.. Well see when they update the long term I clicked on highlight changed discussion and that was highlighted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 it was there at 945 am maybe they kept it the same idk I clicked on highlight changed discussion and that was highlighted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Damn..well plenty of time to work that out for the better. No worries here I wouldn't worry about it too much at this time range. The long wave pattern will really want to push this system north...the exact timing/trajectory of the PV is what keeps it south for now on the Euro and to a lesser extent, the GGEM, but that is a tedious setup, especially since the block isn't overly strong to its north. It might work out like that, but I'd want to see showing up like that for a lot more runs in a row and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 is that a line of snow showers on radar from S Nh SW to NW ct? will they dry out or suprise flakes this evening rev lollies to 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Mostly evaporating before reaching the ground per surface obs. Binghamton did report light rain a few hours ago. The batch across NW CT might be strong enough to reach the ground,. The HRRR actually has some very light QPF over the next few hours across CT - a mix of rain and snow. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011021619&plotName=ptyp_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 is that a line of snow showers on radar from S Nh SW to NW ct? will they dry out or suprise flakes this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 is that a line of snow showers on radar from S Nh SW to NW ct? will they dry out or suprise flakes this evening rev lollies to 3" I've had some patchy freezing drizzle up here, but extremely light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro ensembles really cooled off next week as well. The euro ensembles also a fairly cool in the extended. They also have some slight ridging over the southwest which is definitely a good thing if you want colder weather over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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