ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The Atlantic traffic jam is showing on the GGEM as well...pretty similar to GFS except even a bit more suppressed. It squashes another system after that too in the longer range to the south of us after initially cutting to Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 LOL...the Euro is now bringing the vortex in SE Canada into New England around D5...good grief. That would make today feel kind of nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro is even more suppressed than 12z. Doesn't give us much precip at all. The vortex actually gives us a couple inches of fluff though at D5 via norlun/inverted trough type feature. I think the cold look is good right now given the general pattern in place. A potent s/w that far west and there's a lot of room for trending a lot warmer in future runs so its preferable to get some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 so, at day 10: -PNA +NAO neutral to +EPO above normal 850's from the mississippi eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'll bet you $50 that I see at least 20" of snow in March. I'll foot you dinner bill to, WF.. Paypal the 50 to Will or who before March 1st. If you get one 8-12" storm I'm fooked. If not I feel confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 so, at day 10: -PNA +NAO neutral to +EPO above normal 850's from the mississippi eastward Your trying way too hard. Its mid Feb, get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 16/7 mostly clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 so, at day 10: -PNA +NAO neutral to +EPO above normal 850's from the mississippi eastward Now we wait to D10. Wonder what D12 has in store? Pretty good signal on the Euro/ensembles for short but robust torch next weekend. But pretty wintry ahead of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hopefully when Scooter gets on he'll confirm the Euro ens don't agree with the day 10 Euro. Until then we have a snowstorm to look forward to on Tuesday after the next 3 brutal days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hopefully when Scooter gets on he'll confirm the Euro ens don't agree with the day 10 Euro. Until then we have a snowstorm to look forward to on Tuesday after the next 3 brutal days They're not as warm but they agree on the big hp off the coast. But it is not a long lasting torch and it's D10. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Who cares what day 10 shows....I'd say the same thing if it were a bomb; we laugh off day 10 bombs all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 I see the usual folks were in here last night trying to dampen everyone's spirits about a colder and snowier than normal pattern returning starting Saturday.. Funny how the ones doing that called for a warm, snowless winter..and only show up during the only above normal week of the whole winter. Where were they in Jan/1st half of Feb? Winter is coming back hard and full force...and all of Sne sees another 20-30 inches at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 8.9F. Let's see where we go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I see the usual clowns were in here last night trying to dampen everyone's spirits about a colder and snowier than normal pattern returning starting Saturday.. Funny how the ones doing that called for a warm, snowless winter..and only show up during the only above normal week of the whole winter. Where were they in Jan/1st half of Feb? Winter is coming back hard and full force...and all of Sne sees another 20-30 inches at least The majority, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 KBED is 13* and I'm 13.0\2 .....just for BIrving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 KBED is 13* and I'm 13.0\2 .....just for BIrving Cold morning. One can hope that Ryan's idea of HP overhead limiting mixing holds today and limits the torch to 2 days. Friday looks like it could hit 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Cold morning. One can hope that Ryan's idea of HP overhead limiting mixing holds today and limits the torch to 2 days. Friday looks like it could hit 60. Cold, but seems like the overall temps were not as cold as had been forecasted. Since it's the only weather we've got, we may as well enjoy the warmth from today-Friday and comfort ourselves with the possibility of some snow early next week. At least we can track something as we wander around in our banana hammocks. 11.4/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 what is everyone thinking for temps the next 3 days? For MBY: 45 today 55 Thursday 62 Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 what is everyone thinking for temps the next 3 days? For MBY: 45 today 55 Thursday 62 Friday 43 51 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 32 39 47 -5 here this morning. Not much else to report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 37 48 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 38 49 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 lot of experts in this thread. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I see the usual folks were in here last night trying to dampen everyone's spirits about a colder and snowier than normal pattern returning starting Saturday.. Funny how the ones doing that called for a warm, snowless winter..and only show up during the only above normal week of the whole winter. Where were they in Jan/1st half of Feb? Winter is coming back hard and full force...and all of Sne sees another 20-30 inches at least AIT and stated here, that pattern never changes on this board. FROKY is trying way too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Tubes isn't a troll...he's just bein himself and I'm sure is a nice guuy. Forky is an all out redtag Troll. Wow. I mean it's not like people in here are saying we are going into some storm after storm 70 inches in 5 weeks period, just that winter is coming back and it's gonna snow. Putting up a 10 day OP Euro? Especially when this pattern would bring some ups and downs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Tubes isn't a troll...he's just bein himself and I'm sure is a nice guuy. Forky is an all out redtag Troll. Wow. I mean it's not like people in here are saying we are going into some storm after storm 70 inches in 5 weeks period, just that winter is coming back and it's gonna snow. Putting up a 10 day OP Euro? Especially when this pattern would bring some ups and downs... But who cares? It's not going to make it snow more or less? I just don't get why it effects people on an emotional level. Subjectively the op euro shows more torches than it does snow events through day ten. That's just the fact of the model. Doesn't mean it changes my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Hopefully when Scooter gets on he'll confirm the Euro ens don't agree with the day 10 Euro. Until then we have a snowstorm to look forward to on Tuesday after the next 3 brutal days I've been saying for a few days now, that we may see a 1-2 day warm up at the end of the month, as the NAO goes positive and more troughing develops over the west coast. The 00z GFS ensembles bring it in by the end of next week...a little quicker than the euro. However, it's not a definite thing because the Canadian and 06z GFS ensembles don't really show this, so not all guidance is on board. Right now, I kind of favor a brief milder spell for a day or two, but then it should turn colder by March 1st or so. After that, guidance does get interesting beyond March 1st. The euro ensembles are probably the coldest of all ensembles right now. Will said that not all the analogs were completely on board with a big cold and stormy stretch, and indeed the GFS is not perfect looking. It's showing the strongest negative PNA pattern of all the models, which means it pumps up the se ridge the most, right now. It's always good to have the best ensemble guidance on board, but models are guidance so you can't exactly throw out the GFS ensembles either. I do think that the pattern will feature some good wintry opportunities during early March, but some taint events could happen too. I like the overall look, with weak ridging into Greenland and the NPAC ridge (while not ideal) is in a position to at least help keep the cold closer to the nrn tier of the US. Take a look at the 00z GFS ensembles. You can see how the front is very close to the nrn tier of the US, and is visible just south of sne on March 2. It's good to have southern Canada cold, the complete 180 from last year, where Quebec torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Tubes isn't a troll...he's just bein himself and I'm sure is a nice guuy. Forky is an all out redtag Troll. Wow. I mean it's not like people in here are saying we are going into some storm after storm 70 inches in 5 weeks period, just that winter is coming back and it's gonna snow. Putting up a 10 day OP Euro? Especially when this pattern would bring some ups and downs... unfortunately trolling is a board past-time. it's fine every now and then...in fact i think we all do it every-once-in-a-while...but there is a contingent of posters - we, and they, know who they are - that do it way way too much. it gets old quick. and frankly it's kind of weird. the best part is waking up to come on the board and seeing lots of pages of posts, expecting some good discussion...and instead it's just 100 back-and-forth garbage posts. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've been saying for a few days now, that we may see a 1-2 day warm up at the end of the run, as the NAO goes positive and more troughing develops over the west coast. The 00z GFS ensembles bring it in by the end of next week...a little quicker than the euro. However, it's not a definite thing because the Canadian and 06z GFS ensembles don't really show this, so not all guidance is on board. Right now, I kind of favor a brief milder spell for a day or two, but then it should turn colder by March 1st or so. After that, guidance does get interesting beyond March 1st. The euro ensembles are probably the coldest of all ensembles right now. Will said that not all the analogs were completely on board with a big cold and stormy stretch, and indeed the GFS is not perfect looking. It's showing the strongest negative PNA pattern of all the models, which means it pumps up the se ridge the most, right now. It's always good to have the best ensemble guidance on board, but models are guidance so you can't exactly throw out the GFS ensembles either. I do think that the pattern will feature some good wintry opportunities during early March, but some taint events could happen too. I like the overall look, with weak ridging into Greenland and the NPAC ridge (while not ideal) is in a position to at least help keep the cold closer to the nrn tier of the US. Take a look at the 00z GFS ensembles. You can see how the front is very close to the nrn tier of the US, and is visible just south of sne on March 2. It's good to have southern Canada cold, the complete 180 from last year, where Quebec torched. yeah you've been banging that drum nicely now for a while and it's definitely starting to show on some of the op runs too that there is a 1 to 3 day period of relaxation after this weekend/next week's initial cold shots (which, by the way, look pretty darn cold on the euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Heavy heavy winds Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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