Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 45-50 yeah thats pretty ugly for sure. but its a dry torch and not much wind, really friday is the big day. i could see dews that high eating several inches pretty quickly, overall for the week, i could see it as good as 8 but as bad as 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The ensembles have the more classic looking -EPO after D10...the first round in the 192h range is transient. The 2nd round looks like it might want to be a lot more significant and longer lasting. Its still not your 100% ideal EPO block but its similar to what we saw in January for a time near the middle of the month. Will, does this basically mean that we get into a colder regime from this weekend through part of next week, then we get milder again but then we go back into a more sustained colder blockier pattern a few days after that? Will a strong -NAO block be back by then also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Will, does this basically mean that we get into a colder regime from this weekend through part of next week, then we get milder again but then we go back into a more sustained colder blockier pattern a few days after that? Will a strong -NAO block be back by then also? We may try to moderate again at least somewhat by the end of next week for a brief period, but there's certainly no guarantee that happens at all. If we did, it wouldn't be a torch I don't think like what we see at the end of this week. That signal was much much stronger on the ensembles at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 For Tippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Can we get a March that produces? I really want Ray to get slammed around St. Paddy's Day, even if I only get 5" What was the date in 2006 that it snowed a little in April? Around the 5th? Edit - I must be thinking April 15, 2007... oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Can we get a March that produces? I really want Ray to get slammed around St. Paddy's Day, even if I only get 5" What was the date in 2006 that it snowed a little in April? Around the 5th? Apr 5, 2006 it was. We also had some snow on Apr 4-5, 2007 (about 2-3") and again on Apr 12, 2007 on the front end of the Patriots day storm before it turned to rain...then again on the backside...but it was mostly just coatings. Since 2007 though, we've had 3 consecutive Aprils with no measurable snow which is actually the first time that happened since the early 1900s. You wouldn't think it being April, but its actually extremely rare to have 3 Aprils in a row at ORH with no measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Apr 5, 2006 it was. We also had some snow on Apr 4-5, 2007 (about 2-3") and again on Apr 12, 2007 on the front end of the Patriots day storm before it turned to rain...then again on the backside...but it was mostly just coatings. Since 2007 though, we've had 3 consecutive Aprils with no measurable snow which is actually the first time that happened since the early 1900s. You wouldn't think it being April, but its actually extremely rare to have 3 Aprils in a row at ORH with no measurable snowfall. Does April avg more or less snow than November for ORH? And did the 1997 event count all towards April or was it shared between March and April? I only remember 1 big Nov event (1989?) Numerous small ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Does April avg more or less snow than November for ORH? And did the 1997 event count all towards April or was it shared between March and April? I only remember 1 big Nov event (1989?) Numerous small ones. April and November average almost the same amount. The 1997 storm had a decent amount fall on 3/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 For Tippy At least the PNA is only a little negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 April and November average almost the same amount. The 1997 storm had a decent amount fall on 3/31 Yeah and I think for some more on the 31st. I was not sure if was all lumped in the April 1 report. And does Oct or May avg more? I would imagine May by 0.1" or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah and I think for some more on the 31st. I was not sure if was all lumped in the April 1 report. And does Oct or May avg more? I would imagine May by 0.1" or something October averages more than May. October is close to half an inch and May is like 0.2"...its much rarer to get snowflakes in May (of any kind) than October too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Apr 5, 2006 it was. We also had some snow on Apr 4-5, 2007 (about 2-3") and again on Apr 12, 2007 on the front end of the Patriots day storm before it turned to rain...then again on the backside...but it was mostly just coatings. Since 2007 though, we've had 3 consecutive Aprils with no measurable snow which is actually the first time that happened since the early 1900s. You wouldn't think it being April, but its actually extremely rare to have 3 Aprils in a row at ORH with no measurable snowfall. Yeah, we get accumulating snow down here once every three Aprils on average and the last one here was about 2" in April 2006 also. It seems to me lately we've gotten more snow in early April then we've gotten between March 20-31. I can tell you right now, the amount of accumulating snows here has been MUCH greater in April than November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 April is so overdue for at least a 5-6" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 April is so overdue for at least a 5-6" event The April 2003 event was pretty good in my area. It was a relatively cold storm. That's the last real good April event. It might just come down to a decent April event for the interior, or both coast and interior, to put them over the top this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Friday is looking really good For a nice melt.. hoping to melt about 8-12 inches here.. cmon sun angle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Can we change the title to winter returns with cold and no snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 At least the PNA is only a little negative.... lol i was thinking the same thing just brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The -PNA is not a bad thing in conjunction with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The -PNA is not a bad thing in conjunction with blocking. i agree but if we lose any sort of that blocking, its hello lake superior i would think how does a robust -EPO influence a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 i agree but if we lose any sort of that blocking, its hello lake superior i would think how does a robust -EPO influence a -PNA? It would keep the trough in the southwest US, and probably push the cold into the northern tier. However, like with any blocking scheme...orientation is important. The NPAC ridge is not in an ideal -EPO position (it's a little too far west). However, the PV is near and south of the North Pole...a good spot for us in terms of keeping our source region cold. It's also getting a little punch in the side by some -NAO ridging over Greenland. The combo of these features will keep arctic air very close to the US/Canadian border and within reach. The caveat is any fluctuation or shift with the -NAO and the raging -PNA. It's possible that could drive a storm or two into sne...maybe later February, but that's not a guarantee either. IMO the overall pattern looks good for sne, but that doesn't mean some parts of the region won't deal with a mix of ptypes at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 It may be almost time to lock snow Next monday/Tuesday with everything except GFS dropping snow on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It would keep the trough in the southwest US, and probably push the cold into the northern tier. However, like with any blocking scheme...orientation is important. The NPAC ridge is not in an ideal -EPO position (it's a little too far west). However, the PV is near and south of the North Pole...a good spot for us in terms of keeping our source region cold. It's also getting a little punch in the side by some -NAO ridging over Greenland. The combo of these features will keep arctic air very close to the US/Canadian border and within reach. The caveat is any fluctuation or shift with the -NAO and the raging -PNA. It's possible that could drive a storm or two into sne...maybe later February, but that's not a guarantee either. IMO the overall pattern looks good for sne, but that doesn't mean some parts of the region won't deal with a mix of ptypes at times. thanks for the explanation im all for a -EPO, hopefully that pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It may be almost time to lock snow Next monday/Tuesday with everything except GFS dropping snow on us Does the euro show a storm then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Does the euro show a storm then? Euro ensembles show a robust snow event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winter returned with a vengeance last night.... Home, sweet home this morning with an 18" drift blocking the office door. Temperature was 0F with gusts to 40mph and snowing sideways... snow plastered to all sides of the building. I hope you all feel as excited going to work as I do each morning Snow squalls overnight dropped some fresh powder and then the sun came out... beautiful, crisp, mid-winter day in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It may be almost time to lock snow Next monday/Tuesday with everything except GFS dropping snow on us AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Heavy heavy hills snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Thanks Kev, time for a good one Winter returned with a vengeance last night....Home, sweet home this morning with an 18" drift blocking the office door. Temperature was 0F with gusts to 40mph... snow plastered to all sides of the building. I hope you all feel as excited going to work as I do each morning Your a lucky man, me and the wife love it up there and go up every winter, we couldnt make it this year for various reasons but we did get good snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Thanks Kev, time for a good one Your a lucky man, me and the wife love it up there and go up every winter, we couldnt make it this year for various reasons but we did get good snow down here. There's always next year, haha. Where in Southbridge do you live? Your elevation leads me to believe it is right on the MA/CT border.... Lebanon Hill Road area? My family has a summer place right over the CT border in Woodstock and its at 750ft right off Lebanon Hill Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 MQE still with 22" OTG. 5th longest stretch of 20"+ days per Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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