ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Donald S FTW..with blocking and heavy heavy winter. I'm really starting to think we go out with a bang next week and beyond.. Bang the drums..sound the horns Well I'm not sure on the -NAO yet, it looks weakly negative in the LR...but a return to previous blocking may never happen...however we don't need it to this far north to have a great finish. We'll get plenty of chances on the Euro ensemble depiction. Of course, we really have no idea how it will evolve beyond that in the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If you're feeling sneaky..we can keep it at 6 beers. no pressure Friday is going to be awful. The Thursday night through 06z Saturday time is just an all out assault. Even Thursday could be nasty. My gut says not to, but it will make things interesting. Why not, so I buy a friend some beers...big whoop. 12" or more...not 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 For now, I don't see a big return to the great -NAO blocking that we had, but we really don't need it. With the -EPO that Will mentioned...all you really need is some ridging into Greenland. I think the end of the month could feature a mild day or two, but it looks more favorable beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Pacific is very favorable on the LR Euro ensembles to dump the coldest air in the N Hemisphere right into Canada...it looks like its trending toward an amped up -EPO...more classic look the further out we go. The 12z ECM at Day 8 looked as if it were moving towards a -EPO block but then lost it: GFS ENS show very cold air over Canada, especially the Yukon and NW Territories, bleeding into the CONUS, so that would be consistent with a -EPO that helps bring the polar vortex back over Canada. If we have a -EPO/-PNA, that would be a classic overrunning pattern for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well I'm not sure on the -NAO yet, it looks weakly negative in the LR...but a return to previous blocking may never happen...however we don't need it to this far north to have a great finish. We'll get plenty of chances on the Euro ensemble depiction. Of course, we really have no idea how it will evolve beyond that in the first half of March. Even up until a few days ago..the NAO looked like it might want to stay neutral or + on most long range ens guidance...so to have it solidly - now even if only weakly is a good trend..and if we can get the -EPO like we had in late Jan and the first 10 days of this month things could rock at least thru mid March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Kevin, as long as you truly have 27-28" OTG, and you didn't measure some weenie drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 So..Scooter, Phil..dubs or nothing? Or sneaky caution? sure i'm in. basically you have to lose 15" of snow by saturday morning, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Pacific is very favorable on the LR Euro ensembles to dump the coldest air in the N Hemisphere right into Canada...it looks like its trending toward an amped up -EPO...more classic look the further out we go. All depends on the -EPO ... which has been greatly supported by model guidance and trends in the Pacific / E Asia. I'm really not concerned about the NAO domain much. One way or another it looks like overall below normal heights, which will act to sustain and produce strong cross polar flow, whether it's calculated negative or neutral. Like I said, a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada that is poised to make a surge into the northern tier. We could see significant cyclogenesis on the leading edge of the arctic push. If we have enough of a pseudo -NAO block in place, then boom, another KU for New England. Not really sure when this happens. Three weeks ago, I said the last week of February. Obviously that looks too early, but maybe this could be the early March monster we've been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Kevin, as long as you truly have 27-28" OTG, and you didn't measure some weenie drift. I really do..That is an avg of 5 measurements. Trust me there's a few spots in the yard on the NE side of the house that still have over 30 but it drifts like crazy there. If the 2 other Tolland posters on here come on..maybe we can ask them what they have..or the MEtherb guy in Stafford. I bet you we are all in the 25-28 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I really do..That is an avg of 5 measurements. Trust me there's a few spots in the yard on the NE side of the house that still hae over 30 but it drifts like crazy there. If the 2 other Tolland posters on here come on..maybe we can ask them what they have..or the MEtherb guy in Stafford. I bet you we are all in the 25-28 inch range Sure, why not. Lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 All depends on the -EPO ... which has been greatly supported by model guidance and trends in the Pacific / E Asia. I'm really not concerned about the NAO domain much. One way or another it looks like overall below normal heights, which will act to sustain and produce strong cross polar flow, whether it's calculated negative or neutral. Like I said, a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada that is poised to make a surge into the northern tier. We could see significant cyclogenesis on the leading edge of the arctic push. If we have enough of a pseudo -NAO block in place, then boom, another KU for New England. Not really sure when this happens. Three weeks ago, I said the last week of February. Obviously that looks too early, but maybe this could be the early March monster we've been waiting for. Winter was over on Christmas Day. Why are we still here? It is a Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The 12z ECM at Day 8 looked as if it were moving towards a -EPO block but then lost it: GFS ENS show very cold air over Canada, especially the Yukon and NW Territories, bleeding into the CONUS, so that would be consistent with a -EPO that helps bring the polar vortex back over Canada. If we have a -EPO/-PNA, that would be a classic overrunning pattern for New England. The ensembles have the more classic looking -EPO after D10...the first round in the 192h range is transient. The 2nd round looks like it might want to be a lot more significant and longer lasting. Its still not your 100% ideal EPO block but its similar to what we saw in January for a time near the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 sure i'm in. basically you have to lose 15" of snow by saturday morning, no? Yeah.. I honestly think I am going to lose between 18-22 inches.. Praying I'm wrong..heavy heavy praying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Pacific is very favorable on the LR Euro ensembles to dump the coldest air in the N Hemisphere right into Canada...it looks like its trending toward an amped up -EPO...more classic look the further out we go. i don't have access beyond the freebie 10 days but that developing -epo has been coming on pretty steadily now the last few days. the ec ens has been going pretty gangbusters with the west based nao now too...at least for the next 5 to 10 days. if we can keep the nao even weakly negative i like our chances of an active pattern...we may have some cutters or redevelopers but even those would tend to favor at least a front-end delivery if nothing else given what should be good antecedent conditions. what i don't want, and don't really see right now, is something that results in suppression early followed by cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 All depends on the -EPO ... which has been greatly supported by model guidance and trends in the Pacific / E Asia. I'm really not concerned about the NAO domain much. One way or another it looks like overall below normal heights, which will act to sustain and produce strong cross polar flow, whether it's calculated negative or neutral. Like I said, a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada that is poised to make a surge into the northern tier. We could see significant cyclogenesis on the leading edge of the arctic push. If we have enough of a pseudo -NAO block in place, then boom, another KU for New England. Not really sure when this happens. Three weeks ago, I said the last week of February. Obviously that looks too early, but maybe this could be the early March monster we've been waiting for. With the PV in place near Hudson Bay, the ridge in western AK is in a relatively good spot. As long as we can punch the PV from both sides and force the cold south into the nrn tier, we should be good. Now the NAO might fluctuate a little and cause a storm or two to come into sne, but the overall pattern looks pretty good imo. I'm also not sure heights will tell the story. If it is truly heavy arctic air bleeding south, it could be high thickness cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well I'm not sure on the -NAO yet, it looks weakly negative in the LR...but a return to previous blocking may never happen...however we don't need it to this far north to have a great finish. We'll get plenty of chances on the Euro ensemble depiction. Of course, we really have no idea how it will evolve beyond that in the first half of March. The projected height anomalies in the NAO domain are probably the best we can get without the NAO being squarely negative. I'd rather see a case like this with overall negative anomalies and a calculated neutral -NAO than a massive ridge poking into Greenland that lands a -2SD NAO but results in storm tracks bifurcating around New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 All depends on the -EPO ... which has been greatly supported by model guidance and trends in the Pacific / E Asia. I'm really not concerned about the NAO domain much. One way or another it looks like overall below normal heights, which will act to sustain and produce strong cross polar flow, whether it's calculated negative or neutral. Like I said, a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada that is poised to make a surge into the northern tier. We could see significant cyclogenesis on the leading edge of the arctic push. If we have enough of a pseudo -NAO block in place, then boom, another KU for New England. Not really sure when this happens. Three weeks ago, I said the last week of February. Obviously that looks too early, but maybe this could be the early March monster we've been waiting for. The EPO will certainly give us a frigid cold source in Canada at the end of the month and it looks like right into early March...a complete contrast to what we saw at the end of last winter when Canada was filled with rotten modified air and E Canada was even worse with a torch and Quebec had bare ground in spots. This will make any mini-blocking episodes in the Atlantic and/or little spikes in ridiging out west very conductive to something big for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah.. I honestly think I am going to lose between 18-22 inches.. Praying I'm wrong..heavy heavy praying well i feel really confident about the 8". the 12+ i'm definitely a little more hesistant on. but without some huge windy, rainy torchy mess i think i'm 50/50...and given it's beer...why not. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 well i feel really confident about the 8". the 12+ i'm definitely a little more hesistant on. but without some huge windy, rainy torchy mess i think i'm 50/50...and given it's beer...why not. LOL. I'm not sure..but I think think Will might side with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winter was over on Christmas Day. Why are we still here? It is a Niña. It was an exaggeration! And I was entirely justified that night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The EPO will certainly give us a frigid cold source in Canada at the end of the month and it looks like right into early March...a complete contrast to what we saw at the end of last winter when Canada was filled with rotten modified air and E Canada was even worse with a torch and Quebec had bare ground in spots. This will make any mini-blocking episodes in the Atlantic and/or little spikes in ridiging out west very conductive to something big for us. bingo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah.. I honestly think I am going to lose between 18-22 inches.. Praying I'm wrong..heavy heavy praying what kind of dewpoints are you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It was an exaggeration! And I was entirely justified that night lol tubes can't talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You guys really need a snow melt thread...maybe this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm not sure..but I think think Will might side with me If we lose, it's because you got down to 10-11" or something like that. I tried figuring out how much snow you lost yesterday, and the amount of hours and max temp yesterday. The dews scare me on Friday, but given the snow just iced over again..it should once again take a lot of energy on Thursday to soften it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 tubes can't talk. 39" of snow in Boston this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 what kind of dewpoints are you expecting? 45-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If we lose, it's because you got down to 10-11" or something like that. I tried figuring out how much snow you lost yesterday, and the amount of hours and max temp yesterday. The dews scare me on Friday, but given the snow just iced over again..it should once again take a lot of energy on Thursday to soften it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 December had a lot of people going rafters, when every storm decided to screw around with sne. It wasn't until the Cape Cod retro storm, that things finally busted on the positive side. I think I was pretty conservative in my thoughts back in the fall, but once December rolled around and the blocking went nuts again...the tune quickly changed towards a much better winter. I know people were all nervous for the blocking to go away, wavelengths changing....yada yada yada, and Nina to return in January, but then the MJO saved the day with a nice +PNA./-EPO...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Sounds like the GFS ENS map I posted for 11-15 is what most pros are thinking evolves. Ok folks party starts up again Monday , a Bare Naked Ladies night, Master ReV Kev back spinnin, hope to see ya all there. SHOT HOURS as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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