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Winter returns with a vengeance thread


Damage In Tolland

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Thanks Jay....you should stop sometimes introduce self and have a (stale) beer.

I get them busted from time to time for slant rulers, whatever.

The hills here have there own microclimate. Still 2ft + OTG...what thaw?

I definitely would love to stop by sometime. All beer is good stale or not! It was unbelievable how tight Hutchinson Rd was!

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The Euro has been on and off showing potential for an overrunning type setup sometime early or mid next week...but its just the first in what will likely be a string of threats. That first one probably has the most risk of being too warm or cutting west of us....hopefully it gets shoved south but we might have to deal with a snow to ice (interior) to rain type deal before reloading for the next set of threats.

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The Euro has been on and off showing potential for an overrunning type setup sometime early or mid next week...but its just the first in what will likely be a string of threats. That first one probably has the most risk of being too warm or cutting west of us....hopefully it gets shoved south but we might have to deal with a snow to ice (interior) to rain type deal before reloading for the next set of threats.

Yeah, the euro oscillating between a warmer and colder scenario was one of the reasons of me throwing around the possibility of a mix next week. Luckily the ensembles are colder, but do seem to want to track the low close to us.

I was telling Ray last night, that it looks like an active pattern over the next 2 maybe 3 weeks. However, I think we may be on our toes at times thanks to the -PNA. I'll still take my chances with an active pattern this time of year. SST' are cold and so is our source region, Canada.

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Yeah, the euro oscillating between a warmer and colder scenario was one of the reasons of me throwing around the possibility of a mix next week. Luckily the ensembles are colder, but do seem to want to track the low close to us.

I was telling Ray last night, that it looks like an active pattern over the next 2 maybe 3 weeks. However, I think we may be on our toes at times thanks to the -PNA. I'll still take my chances with an active pattern this time of year. SST' are cold and so is our source region, Canada.

If we get lucky, March could end up a bit like Dec of 2007 in terms of sensible wx.

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Certainly ready to withstand a few mild days, isn't it to be expected at some point during a New England winter? I'm confident we get below freezing every night this week (here at least)

Looking forward to the possibility of a swfe next week Latitude is starting to become a factor however...

Even Thursday night?

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If we get lucky, March could end up a bit like Dec of 2007 in terms of sensible wx.

Well that would be nice.

The 18z GFS op shows you what can go wrong. Yes I know it's the op run, but it shows you how a strong -PNA can force storms right over our heads. Fortunately as of now, I don't think every storm will do that. We may see a few messy storms, but the overall appeal to the pattern looks good.

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Even Thursday night?

Borderline. But elevated valley locale might help me get down to 30 - 31. My hood is about 8 miles west of the Ct River and in an elevated part of the Green River valley micro clime, so we cool real well. Many nights I'm several degrees below town and several degrees lower than MoneyPit who is at 1000'+.

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Well that would be nice.

The 18z GFS op shows you what can go wrong. Yes I know it's the op run, but it shows you how a strong -PNA can force storms right over our heads. Fortunately as of now, I don't think every storm will do that. We may see a few messy storms, but the overall appeal to the pattern looks good.

Event if that happens, we are still gonna grab 2-5" most events because of the +pp over s Canada.....folks forget that tainters still add up.

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Event if that happens, we are still gonna grab 2-5" most events because of the +pp over s Canada.....folks forget that tainters still add up.

Gimme a high in March, and I'll be happy.

We'll see. I do like the pattern, but acknowledge not every storm may be great for sne. The euro ensembles sure would be nice, if they materialized. All we need is just a little blocking. Well if you want a KU, you need better blocking, but a weak -NAO may be enough to help keep the boundary to our south.

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Gimme a high in March, and I'll be happy.

We'll see. I do like the pattern, but acknowledge not every storm may be great for sne. The euro ensembles sure would be nice, if they materialized. All we need is just a little blocking. Well if you want a KU, you need better blocking, but a weak -NAO may be enough to help keep the boundary to our south.

Dec 2007 didn't have a KU, but I think most from Kev points n would take it and run......even a track over us will be fine with a high over Canada.

If you're expecting to accumulate a 3' snowpack again, than March will dissapoint, but if you just want a shot to tack on 30" to the seasonal total.....then you have a shot, especially from the pike points n.

I still think we have a 50\50 shot to see enough blocking to get another monster coastal, but not a given.

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Then a cutter well west even of the Lakes Monday. Kind of a mildish SWFE in SNE maybe mixed bag NNE, sets up graident pattern thereafter.

GFS looks decent in the longer range...North Atlantic gets blocky with a lot of cold air over Canada, but we still have a deep trough in the West to contend with. It's definitely going to be a pattern with a lot of SWFE and mixing issues if the GFS has any idea what it's doing in the longer range. Fantasy hours have a big coastal with very cold air coming in early March, but that's far away.

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