CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 That traffic jam in the Atlantic is really making its presence felt this run. The shortwave has morphed almost into a pseudo bowling ball like feature going through the lower lakes. That's exactly where I want the depiction right now. Let it be due east of the Delmarva at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm guessing the 12z models blow wrt winter and snow, talk of CMEs and solar stuff ;D You could not be more wrong again. Boy thats an impressive cold shot with HWW on the Euro followed by a snowstorm. That really would blow DT out of the water as even the MA gets in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 That's exactly where I want the depiction right now. Let it be due east of the Delmarva at this stage of the game. This is not bad eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You could not be more wrong again. Boy thats an impressive cold shot with HWW on the Euro followed by a snowstorm. That really would blow DT out of the water as even the MA gets in on it. How can someone be wrong if they haven't made a declaration? Euro coming in looking real nice, Ukie interesting,...gfs and GGEM awful ( at least the quick glances I just took) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 That's exactly where I want the depiction right now. Let it be due east of the Delmarva at this stage of the game. Yeah I like the setup more and more as we get closer. Its still a long ways out though...about a week to go. But with the blocking trending more impressive, we have an increased just of having the system go underneath us for a snowier solution vs over us or NW of us which would have significant taint and warmer scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 let's just get to saturday at this point. looks pretty interesting from that time period onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The gunshy NOGAPS has a few latter range threats, that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 man...nice ~ 35 to 40mb pressure difference from W MA to nova scotia saturday PM. hvy hvy wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 man...nice ~ 35 to 40mb pressure difference from W MA to nova scotia saturday PM. hvy hvy wind 35-40kt gusts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 35-40kt gusts... there's been a nice 50 to 75 knot LLJ in the 925 to 850 layer for days now in that time period all over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 there's been a nice 50 to 75 knot LLJ in the 925 to 850 layer for days now in that time period all over the northeast. Man the long term signal has been strong for consecutive runs, wonder if ice is a threat in NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm guessing the 12z models blow wrt winter and snow, talk of CMEs and solar stuff ;D 12z GFS has a nice event for NNE early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 “If you live at a high northern or southern latitude, watch for some spectacular lights in the sky Tuesday night.“ NASA report on a huge solar flare late sunday What constitutes "high"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GFS has a nice event for NNE early next week LOL, pretty clear which model NNE is rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 there's been a nice 50 to 75 knot LLJ in the 925 to 850 layer for days now in that time period all over the northeast. Local studies have shown that to a close approximation, 1mb = 1kt of wind for sfc pgf. I don't think, or am not sure, whether that considers convective processes as well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah I like the setup more and more as we get closer. Its still a long ways out though...about a week to go. But with the blocking trending more impressive, we have an increased just of having the system go underneath us for a snowier solution vs over us or NW of us which would have significant taint and warmer scenario. I'm not going to lie, looking for a track along I-90 here or maybe a bit south of it. President's Week vacation period at the ski resort and any snow that week is like money falling from the sky. A nice snowfall will really boost business for later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 LOL, pretty clear which model NNE is rooting for. Haha yeah, sorry but I think that's sort of how this one has to go down. If it tracks south of SNE we'll be high and dry. Need PVD/BOS area to taint, no hard feelings either way though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm not going to lie, looking for a track along I-90 here or maybe a bit south of it. President's Week vacation period at the ski resort and any snow that week is like money falling from the sky. A nice snowfall will really boost business for later in the week. I'll obviously be rooting stoutly against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Great to see the good Dr come in with a much colder look for next week, yesterday, and the late week break is nice, but now its time to get back into some dendritical deliciousness. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm not going to lie, looking for a track along I-90 here or maybe a bit south of it. President's Week vacation period at the ski resort and any snow that week is like money falling from the sky. A nice snowfall will really boost business for later in the week. Wouldn't the snow falling south of you in NY/Greewich CT boost business more, thats your wealthy client-ale correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol root toot toot mica vim toot all fodder at this range but i guess its better than looking at a torch and helps soothe, i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Haha yeah, sorry but I think that's sort of how this one has to go down. If it tracks south of SNE we'll be high and dry. Need PVD/BOS area to taint, no hard feelings either way though, lol. I doubt the gfs has much merit outside 96hrs at this point. You're in a great position for late winter fun, no doubt...it's NNE's turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'll obviously be rooting stoutly against it. Haha nice. Should be a fun week of ups and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I doubt the gfs has much merit outside 96hrs at this point. You're in a great position for late winter fun, no doubt...it's NNE's turn. It has absolutely no merit outside 96 hours... no real model does, we can just watch trends. I honestly don't really care all that much what happens late in the season, we've had a great run so far. Fresh snow last night, bluebird skies today... at least the brown snowbanks disappeared again. I just want it to snow next week during the Vacation week... huge week for the ski resorts all over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wouldn't the snow falling south of you in NY/Greewich CT boost business more, thats your wealthy client-ale correct? It certainly helped this season that you guys had a great January. Business from Christmas onward is at amazing levels... especially in the past few weekends where we've had snow and the wealthy folks down south have also had snow. With that said, it'll warm up later this week then freeze solid this weekend. We are going to need some snow to improve the conditions or else folks will come up and ski for a day or two and then find other stuff to do like dog-sledding, snowmobiling, X-C skiing, etc. A snowstorm will keep them coming back to the mountain and not just sitting at the pool in their hotel or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Local studies have shown that to a close approximation, 1mb = 1kt of wind for sfc pgf. I don't think, or am not sure, whether that considers convective processes as well - yeah it could end up being meh. who knows. when i start seeing 50 knots down to 950mb in a strong CAA situation it always perks my interest - especially if it goes multiple model cycles with multiple guidance. still, the trend always seems to be weaker as we approach an event so i'm not counting on Wiz needing to break out the HAM just yet. the 12z GFS is again pretty comical (several runs now). for BOS (and really all of SNE) the profile is close to dry adiabatic all day saturday and saturday night through the first 3K to 5K feet...so it is consistently mixing in a layer of 50 to 60 knots of wind for 18 hours. steve would have serious tree-top gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It certainly helped this season that you guys had a great January. Business from Christmas onward is at amazing levels... especially in the past few weekends where we've had snow and the wealthy folks down south have also had snow. With that said, it'll warm up later this week then freeze solid this weekend. We are going to need some snow to improve the conditions or else folks will come up and ski for a day or two and then find other stuff to do like dog-sledding, snowmobiling, X-C skiing, etc. A snowstorm will keep them coming back to the mountain and not just sitting at the pool in their hotel or something like that. Petes second favorite Ice moguls, Euro looks upslopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 whats the deal with CPC, they not updating the indices anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It certainly helped this season that you guys had a great January. Business from Christmas onward is at amazing levels... especially in the past few weekends where we've had snow and the wealthy folks down south have also had snow. With that said, it'll warm up later this week then freeze solid this weekend. We are going to need some snow to improve the conditions or else folks will come up and ski for a day or two and then find other stuff to do like dog-sledding, snowmobiling, X-C skiing, etc. A snowstorm will keep them coming back to the mountain and not just sitting at the pool in their hotel or something like that. Yea you do not want the folks in Greenwich with their windows and tops down on their Audi/Mercedes/Lamborghinis sunning themselves with their girlfriends wearing flip flops, polo tees and Aero shorts, although East Bay would approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 yeah it could end up being meh. who knows. when i start seeing 50 knots down to 950mb in a strong CAA situation it always perks my interest - especially if it goes multiple model cycles with multiple guidance. still, the trend always seems to be weaker as we approach an event so i'm not counting on Wiz needing to break out the HAM just yet. the 12z GFS is again pretty comical (several runs now). for BOS (and really all of SNE) the profile is close to dry adiabatic all day saturday and saturday night through the first 3K to 5K feet...so it is consistently mixing in a layer of 50 to 60 knots of wind for 18 hours. steve would have serious tree-top gusts. Heavy heavy top of tree bursts with mini limbs down all over, hey that was last night. Love that winter howling sound. A HWW would top this off, only thing I do not think we have had is a tornado warning,seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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