Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 “If you live at a high northern or southern latitude, watch for some spectacular lights in the sky Tuesday night.“ NASA report on a huge solar flare late sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Steve, that kicks ass. No cloud cover this time. (especially since it shows the lack of snow in the M.A. - bwahahahaah) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Another one I like. Note the wide expanse of cold on IR across Quebec into New England. There are clear skies in this area, so that's indicative of boundary layer temperatures. There are mid level clouds over Ontario that are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 “If you live at a high northern or southern latitude, watch for some spectacular lights in the sky Tuesday night.“ NASA report on a huge solar flare late sunday Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February). The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from yesterday's M6 event. meh...usually that doesn't cut it for 42-43N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The GFS is really a classic -PNA patterm while the euro is not nearly as classic at all. I do kind of question the evolution of the GFS solution with some of the points you consider. Also, fast flow has been causing the GFS to flip-flop solutions from time to time. I wouldn't totally rule it out based on the -PNA , but it's times like these where ensemble come into play. Ultimately every system turned warmer in the last two weeks even PRIOR to the pattern change completing. With a big high in one form or another parked off the SE coast "going zucker' may be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 FIRST X-FLARE OF THE NEW SOLAR CYCLE: Sunspot 1158 has unleashed the strongest solar flare in more than four years. The eruption, which peaked at 0156 UT on Feb. 15th, registered X2 on the Richter scale of solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation, circled below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 FIRST X-FLARE OF THE NEW SOLAR CYCLE: Sunspot 1158 has unleashed the strongest solar flare in more than four years. The eruption, which peaked at 0156 UT on Feb. 15th, registered X2 on the Richter scale of solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation, circled below: oh..the forecast I posted was written last night at 22z before the X2 solar flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Not according to Scott , NBD but just common sense. Liking the Euro GGEM combo, NOGAPS? SS seven time LOL/ "The type of snow also has an affect. If the snow is light and fluffy ("dry snow") it may not melt as fast as heavy, "wet" snow that has more liquid water in it. A light, fluffy snow also allows more light to filter through it, thereby distributing the energy through a greater depth of snow, whereas wet snow absorbs much of the Sun's energy near the top of the snow and therefore it melts at the top; the melted snow drips through the snowpack, making it "wetter" and icy if temperatures drop well below freezing." David R. Cook Atmospheric Research Section Environmental Research Division Argonne National Laboratory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 "The type of snow also has an affect. If the snow is light and fluffy ("dry snow") it may not melt as fast as heavy, "wet" snow that has more liquid water in it. A light, fluffy snow also allows more light to filter through it, thereby distributing the energy through a greater depth of snow, whereas wet snow absorbs much of the Sun's energy near the top of the snow and therefore it melts at the top; the melted snow drips through the snowpack, making it "wetter" and icy if temperatures drop well below freezing." David R. Cook Atmospheric Research Section Environmental Research Division Argonne National Laboratory Dry fluffy snow compacts and sublimates faster than wet snow though. Melting is just one aspect of snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February). The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from yesterday's M6 event. meh...usually that doesn't cut it for 42-43N. Interesting, multiple sources seem to suggest something more. NASA reports it is the biggest one in 4 years; but then again, we are in a historic solar minimum so that may not be saying much. Anyway, don't blame the messenger - that was quoted from NASA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 oh..the forecast I posted was written last night at 22z before the X2 solar flare. Ah, I see - welp, we'll see what happens tonight, but... this would be a spectacular air mass for viewing such displays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Cheers to the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ah, I see - welp, we'll see what happens tonight, but... this would be a spectacular air mass for viewing such displays! indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ah, I see - welp, we'll see what happens tonight, but... this would be a spectacular air mass for viewing such displays! I believe it takes a CME about 3 days to reach earth. Peak conditions would be like Thursday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I believe it takes a CME about 3 days to reach earth. Peak conditions would be like Thursday night... Huh, ...you're right about that - i'm sure why the press docket mentions tonight. Maybe that was type-o on there part, but I also am aware that based on how energetic the ejection is the velocity and arrival time may vary, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Huh, ...you're right about that - i'm sure why the press docket mentions tonight. Maybe that was type-o on there part, but I also am aware that based on how energetic the ejection is the velocity and arrival time may vary, too. tonight could be active from the flare/CME on the 13th..I think we have to wait until Thursday night for last night's flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 tonight could be active from the flare/CME on the 13th..I think we have to wait until Thursday night for last night's flare. OH -there's 2 flares in question. Nice, just in time to break the -AO cycle and catipult us into a hot summer j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 tonight could be active from the flare/CME on the 13th..I think we have to wait until Thursday night for last night's flare. Going to be a little tough seeing it thru the clouds unfortunatly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 tonight could be active from the flare/CME on the 13th..I think we have to wait until Thursday night for last night's flare. Maybe Wednesday night? Given a peak yesterday evening, that could start reaching Earth late Wednesday night - early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro is going to look much different I think, compared to the GFS. Even at hr 120, I see some big differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 OH -there's 2 flares in question. Nice, just in time to break the -AO cycle and catipult us into a hot summer j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Steve, that kicks ass. No cloud cover this time. (especially since it shows the lack of snow in the M.A. - bwahahahaah) High res I finally found the historical site, you can look pretty far back http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2011_02_15_046&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true§or=USA4&resolution=250m'>http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2011_02_15_046&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true§or=USA4&resolution=250m http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro is going to look much different I think, compared to the GFS. Even at hr 120, I see some big differences. The blocking in Greenland is pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The blocking in Greenland is pretty potent. I definitely want the suppressed look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The blocking in Greenland is pretty potent. Hearkens to the -NAO being dropped on the 12z GFS, which is most likely erroneous - eh, toss the run. It happens from time to time, if with the lubed up Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Great solar info here: http://solarcycle24.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euor looks like a propagating REX configuration featuring a huge polar high migrating E through lower Canadian shield, with a quasi tumbler rolling through the OV - that has long duration ender as a Miller B written all over it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 High res I finally found the historical site, you can look pretty far back http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2011_02_15_046&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true§or=USA4&resolution=250m'>http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2011_02_15_046&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true§or=USA4&resolution=250m http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/ You can clearly see why some sites have greater depth and the haves and have nots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 That traffic jam in the Atlantic is really making its presence felt this run. The shortwave has morphed almost into a pseudo bowling ball like feature going through the lower lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm guessing the 12z models blow wrt winter and snow, talk of CMEs and solar stuff ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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