weathafella Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS run today is about the worst we've had this entire winter.....horrendous and hopefully wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 you mean in general as in you don't use them or as in the last week or two? They come in handy in certain situations, but over the last week, I feel like they have been too warm. It seems like this warmer airmass (except for today) and snowpack hurts these temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS was a real bummer was not expecting to see 3 lakes cutters, hopefully things change. It's been doing this for a while. Like everything...it's guidance, but it's part of the reason why I mention the, "what can go wrong" part of the next two weeks. Ensembles so far were cooler, but lets see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Man this is very impressive CAA! Low of 7.6F recorded at 9am, and in full sunshine, the temp has just eclipsed 10F in Plymouth. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Man this is very impressive CAA! Low of 7.6F recorded at 9am, and in full sunshine, the temp has just eclipsed 10F in Plymouth. WOW! haha...maybe you guys stole it up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Exactly....folks are falling into the trap of "go coastal or go home"......tainted events count, too and it's a reality that we will have to accept with the RNA so robust and the NAO waning at times. I mean, say we get one good coastal for 10", then maybe four 2-5" tainters.....I'll take 18-30" more in March. Possible March goes bigger than that, but I'd say that the aformentioned scenario is a good middle ground for expectations to be set. Honestly this post is funny! For the last 3 years you've been in a HECS or go home mode and now this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It's been doing this for a while. Like everything...it's guidance, but it's part of the reason why I mention the, "what can go wrong" part of the next two weeks. Ensembles so far were cooler, but lets see what 12z does. I have not taken the time to look lately knowing how this week was going to be, but peeked just because of the recent posts regarding winters return, if these things are going to cut, I hope they go way west, I dont think anybody with the snowpack we have wants all that rain, at least homeowners with basements lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 There are two distinct differences between the 00z EC ensembles and the 12z GFS ensembles. The EC ensembles have a stronger west based -NAO and are not as deep with the west coast trough. This is the difference between a sn-ra event, vs an all snow event with a low going east of ACY. The GFS ensembles are also much faster to bring in another trough into western Canada by hr 120. As a result, this helps the ridge over the southern Plains to build and thus push the storm further nw. IMO, it's possible the GFS may be too fast with this trough feature, but we'll see in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Those are official COOP stations, my data concurs. Of course VT lost more, they had fluff. As I said many times here I saw the same thing in March 01 in NNE with 4 -5 feet on the ground, mid 50s for two days and you would have thought it was 20. The areas which melted yesterday were roadside salt piles and dirty snow. This stuff is pure concrete. Fluff doesn't always mean it'll melt faster I posted the NOAA link a day or two ago talking about the differeing melting rates. When an entire region mostly lost 2-5" yesterday any place losing more or less than that makes me skeptical. GFS run today is about the worst we've had this entire winter.....horrendous and hopefully wrong. The system at 384 hours looks good to me though. Pattern is shaping up nice for March. It's been doing this for a while. Like everything...it's guidance, but it's part of the reason why I mention the, "what can go wrong" part of the next two weeks. Ensembles so far were cooler, but lets see what 12z does. Problem #1 is the big SE ridge which continues to pop up run after run. If that dominates winter FTL. the fact that the ridiculously cold GFS is running lakes cutters is disconcerting. It hasn't really done that all year. If anything it was always well SE of most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Actually, the euro ensembles eject the sw trough out by hr 156, and this feature remains damped as it moves off the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 There are two distinct differences between the 00z EC ensembles and the 12z GFS ensembles. The EC ensembles have a stronger west based -NAO and are not as deep with the west coast trough. This is the difference between a sn-ra event, vs an all snow event with a low going east of ACY. The GFS ensembles are also much faster to bring in another trough into western Canada by hr 120. As a result, this helps the ridge over the southern Plains to build and thus push the storm further nw. IMO, it's possible the GFS may be too fast with this trough feature, but we'll see in a few hours. lol...i literally was just writing this general idea and was going to copy/paste it here...but was comparing just the 00z runs and the general theme holds. it's amazing how just a few ticks here and there in this pattern are going to make a world of difference. the ec ens have just slightly weaker southern miss river valley ridging and that combined with the higher heights over davis strait is enough to lock in cold and force everything south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Those are official COOP stations, my data concurs. That 28 from the Bakersville, CT co-op is a little hard to believe. He's only a couple miles West of me at a similar elevation and I have 19" and lost 2-2.5" yesterday. The fact that he has more than Norfolk is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Problem #1 is the big SE ridge which continues to pop up run after run. If that dominates winter FTL. the fact that the ridiculously cold GFS is running lakes cutters is disconcerting. It hasn't really done that all year. If anything it was always well SE of most other guidance. i hear ya but at the same time that's sort of comparing apples and dump trucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol...i literally was just writing this general idea and was going to copy/paste it here...but was comparing just the 00z runs and the general theme holds. it's amazing how just a few ticks here and there in this pattern are going to make a world of difference. the ec ens have just slightly weaker southern miss river valley ridging and that combined with the higher heights over davis strait is enough to lock in cold and force everything south. Yeah this is the pattern where just minor changes in the height fields to the north, will have a huge outcome in sensible wx. The GFS ensembles also came in a lot colder towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You hit the nail on the head there. It's not just about the NAO and blocking. The upstream system over W. Canada Sun-Mon makes a big difference. A more progressive upstream system prevents much ridging from building in the northern stream over central Canada, which limits confluence. The Canadian has blocking about as strong and in the same position as the ECMWF, but because of a more progressive upstream system in W. Canada, it pumps up the ridge over the SE US quite a bit and has much weaker confluence than the ECMWF. There are two distinct differences between the 00z EC ensembles and the 12z GFS ensembles. The EC ensembles have a stronger west based -NAO and are not as deep with the west coast trough. This is the difference between a sn-ra event, vs an all snow event with a low going east of ACY. The GFS ensembles are also much faster to bring in another trough into western Canada by hr 120. As a result, this helps the ridge over the southern Plains to build and thus push the storm further nw. IMO, it's possible the GFS may be too fast with this trough feature, but we'll see in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z ggem has more or less joined the euro camp FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Even the 12z GGEM sees that low getting squashed under our latitude and that model almost CAN'T see solution like this with its native westerly bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 12z GGEM looks a bit more like last nights ECMWF....it really forces the OH Valley s/w eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 That 28 from the Bakersville, CT co-op is a little hard to believe. He's only a couple miles West of me at a similar elevation and I have 19" and lost 2-2.5" yesterday. The fact that he has more than Norfolk is telling. Can not vouch for anybody else but the hill homes two miles to my east have about 6-8 inches more than me. Messenger I read your link but there is no mention that a 6 inch water content hard pack compacts at the same rate a 2 inch air filled fluff does. Everyone here knows that fluff compacts much more readily than hardpack, just plain common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Can not vouch for anybody else but the hill homes two miles to my east have about 6-8 inches more than me. Messenger I read your link but there is no mention that a 6 inch water content hard pack compacts at the same rate a 2 inch air filled fluff does. Everyone here knows that fluff compacts much more readily than hardpack, just plain common sense. Low water content snow disappears much quicker...it both sublimates and compresses faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Just came inside. In spite of the 20* temps, the stronger February sun is doing its work. Melting taking place on the driveway, making the ice WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It has a rather odd solution though by early next week, with a near-omega block forming over Ontario/Quebec between the cutoff low in the western US and the stubborn 50/50 low. Pattern is too progressive to support something like that IMO. 12z GGEM looks a bit more like last nights ECMWF....it really forces the OH Valley s/w eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Low water content snow disappears much quicker...it both sublimates and compresses faster. Not according to Scott , NBD but just common sense. Liking the Euro GGEM combo, NOGAPS? SS seven time LOL/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Cool satellite shot. Perfectly clear, showing all the snow cover. Including the ice on Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You hit the nail on the head there. It's not just about the NAO and blocking. The upstream system over W. Canada Sun-Mon makes a big difference. A more progressive upstream system prevents much ridging from building in the northern stream over central Canada, which limits confluence. The Canadian has blocking about as strong and in the same position as the ECMWF, but because of a more progressive upstream system in W. Canada, it pumps up the ridge over the SE US quite a bit and has much weaker confluence than the ECMWF. It looks like (to me anyways) that the 12z Canadian has a similar evolution to the euro as Capecodweather.net pointed out. Check out how that trough digs south on the west coast, and the trough over the southwest ejects into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Cool satellite shot. Perfectly clear, showing all the snow cover Look at the Modis one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Cool satellite shot. Perfectly clear, showing all the snow cover. Including the ice on Lake Erie Awesome! Love those sat. images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Awesome! Love those sat. images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Look at the Modis one Good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 14 frigid degrees with gusts to 25... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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