Winter returns with a vengeance thread

[Tropopause_Fold]

Exactly....folks are falling into the trap of "go coastal or go home"......tainted events count, too and it's a reality that we will have to accept with the RNA so robust and the NAO waning at times.

I mean, say we get one good coastal for 10", then maybe four 2-5" tainters.....I'll take 18-30" more in March.

Possible March goes bigger than that, but I'd say that the aformentioned scenario is a good middle ground for expectations to be set.

agree.

you are like jekyll and hyde.

[CoastalWx]

Exactly....folks are falling into the trap of "go coastal or go home"......tainted events count, too and it's a reality that we will have to accept with the RNA so robust and the NAO waning at times.

I mean, say we get one good coastal for 10", then maybe four 2-5" tainters.....I'll take 18-30" more in March.

Possible March goes bigger than that, but I'd say that the aformentioned scenario is a good middle ground for expectations to be set.

It's not out of the question the pattern could go Zucker like the 00z GFS showed. That's sort of a concern from me, but my gut says that it may be more on the wintry side...hopefully it's right.

[Ginx snewx]

Staffordville's depth has been almost exactly Kevin's depth through the winter. Can't wait to compare the two through this week!

Yesterday versus today

[Tropopause_Fold]

guidance did a pretty piss poor job handling the cold over SNE today. it was fine over NYS and VT and parts of NNE but was too cold for most of MA east of the Berks and CT/RI. not sure if it is related to the amount of residual BL warmth we had but even the 2-m temps which can do well in these circumstances failed.

[Ginx snewx]

I hope BIRVING see the hydro maps I posted, yesterdays torch to 56 here dropped the snow cover by 1 whole inch. Now with the melting solid refreeze it is total concrete,thinking 5-10 loss by Sat. If overrunning happens that could be replaced by next week.

[Ginx snewx]

guidance did a pretty piss poor job handling the cold over SNE today. it was fine over NYS and VT and parts of NNE but was too cold for most of MA east of the Berks and CT/RI. not sure if it is related to the amount of residual BL warmth we had but even the 2-m temps which can do well in these circumstances failed.

What were the expected temps? I am at 22 was that too high, just asking because I do not know.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I hope BIRVING see the hydro maps I posted, yesterdays torch to 56 here dropped the snow cover by 1 whole inch. Now with the melting solid refreeze it is total concrete,thinking 5-10 loss by Sat. If overrunning happens that could be replaced by next week.

I take those maps with a grain of salt. the high country of vermont lost more than some of the "lower" country in SNE. One place loses 2-5" and a few miles away someone loses an inch. All very subjective IMO.

[Tropopause_Fold]

What were the expected temps? I am at 22 was that too high, just asking because I do not know.

it actually depends a lot on the area. i've been looking more closely since i made that post and some spots are fine...within a couple of degrees...some are bad. it's weird.

for instance PVD is 26...i think 00z mos (MAV - i think MET was even colder) was like 21 at 15z and the 2m was like mid 10s.

[Tropopause_Fold]

it actually depends a lot on the area. i've been looking more closely since i made that post and some spots are fine...within a couple of degrees...some are bad. it's weird.

for instance PVD is 26...i think 00z mos (MAV - i think MET was even colder) was like 21 at 15z and the 2m was like mid 10s.

i thought the 2-m might be on to something yesterday when i saw some of the obs in canada - flat out brutal air. but they are way way too cold today. not even close.

[Ginx snewx]

I take those maps with a grain of salt. the high country of vermont lost more than some of the "lower" country in SNE. One place loses 2-5" and a few miles away someone loses an inch. All very subjective IMO.

Those are official COOP stations, my data concurs. Of course VT lost more, they had fluff. As I said many times here I saw the same thing in March 01 in NNE with 4 -5 feet on the ground, mid 50s for two days and you would have thought it was 20. The areas which melted yesterday were roadside salt piles and dirty snow. This stuff is pure concrete.

[Ginx snewx]

it actually depends a lot on the area. i've been looking more closely since i made that post and some spots are fine...within a couple of degrees...some are bad. it's weird.

for instance PVD is 26...i think 00z mos (MAV - i think MET was even colder) was like 21 at 15z and the 2m was like mid 10s.

After I read your post I went and looked at some sites, weird thing is most areas reached their lows at 11:00. Thats impressive CAA.

[Ginx snewx]

After I read your post I went and looked at some sites, weird thing is most areas reached their lows at 11:00. Thats impressive CAA.

My dew point keeps dropping -4 right now

[free_man]

I hope BIRVING see the hydro maps I posted, yesterdays torch to 56 here dropped the snow cover by 1 whole inch. Now with the melting solid refreeze it is total concrete,thinking 5-10 loss by Sat. If overrunning happens that could be replaced by next week.

Oh Ginxy...you said "no snow melt", those were your words. Now you said 1" lol...just admit it, our pack is taking a big dent this week, even if only 1/4 to 1/2 of it...still a large hit.

[Ginx snewx]

Oh Ginxy...you said "no snow melt", those were your words. Now you said 1" lol...just admit it, our pack is taking a big dent this week, even if only 1/4 to 1/2 of it...still a large hit.

No I said at 900 yesterday morning it was 46 degrees and nothing was dripping at all. I was not lying, until the sun came out it was bone dry in my neighborhood. After it did I posted such. You basically called me a liar. Of course there will be melting I never denied it, however I remain steadfast in saying that this stuff is not your typical meltdown, tons of energy will need to be expelled to vaporize it. Do not twist my words youngster.

[CoastalWx]

i thought the 2-m might be on to something yesterday when i saw some of the obs in canada - flat out brutal air. but they are way way too cold today. not even close.

2-M temps have been way too low as of late. I think it might be because of the snowpack, but they have been atrocious at times.

[Typhoon Tip]

guidance did a pretty piss poor job handling the cold over SNE today. it was fine over NYS and VT and parts of NNE but was too cold for most of MA east of the Berks and CT/RI. not sure if it is related to the amount of residual BL warmth we had but even the 2-m temps which can do well in these circumstances failed.

may actually be timing more than magnitude -

let's wait until midnight when the winds have died over a still robust snowpack.

[CoastalWx]

It's not out of the question the pattern could go Zucker like the 00z GFS showed. That's sort of a concern from me, but my gut says that it may be more on the wintry side...hopefully it's right.

12z GFS went Zucker.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, that was a pretty nasty ice storm signaled on the 00z GGEM.... About 1 to 1.5" accretion with that synoptic evolution

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z GFS went Zucker.

LOL. yeah it did. nice rain event there.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z GFS went Zucker.

That's a hugely correctable, balkishly humorous solution ... It's potentially wrong for a handful of reasons. Just to name two whoppers:

1) Nascent cold air being too liberally eredicated, taking a low to moderate scaled cyclogenesis and cleaving its way through dense polar/arctic hybrid laydown from over the weekend. Not likely... This is also a pattern change back to the -AO/-NAO coupled phase state - perhaps even 2010-2011 Part II (how ever long it lasts not withstanding)., and given to what that has meant in the past ...and considering the former, it's laughable taking a 1000mb low to BUF like that. Good luck with that!

2) Newly arriving westerly based -NAO is a suppression in latitude of the mean storm track, and the GFS appears to have invented its own planetary physics to defeat that directive

[Tropopause_Fold]

may actually be timing more than magnitude -

let's wait until midnight when the winds have died over a still robust snowpack.

i don't know. tough to say about timing. maybe.

anyway i don't deny that it will be a cold night. and it's friggin cold out there right now. i'm just noting that some of the numbers are pretty bad today relative to what was being spit out even with the 06z runs. and it's mos and raw.

[CoastalWx]

may actually be timing more than magnitude -

let's wait until midnight when the winds have died over a still robust snowpack.

It's interesting that KBOS is only 4 degrees warmer than ORH. 18z MAV was pretty spot on for KBOS. I know a 340 wind direction is an ideal way to deliver cold to KBOS, but that's impressive to see 1000ft ORH and sea level KBOS only 4 degrees apart. The cold is rather shallow, so that might play a role. That, and a 340 wind is not a downslope wind like a 270-300 wind direction.

[Typhoon Tip]

i don't know. tough to say about timing. maybe.

anyway i don't deny that it will be a cold night. and it's friggin cold out there right now. i'm just noting that some of the numbers are pretty bad today relative to what was being spit out even with the 06z runs. and it's mos and raw.

You're actually right though now that I think about it. Yesterday at around this time I was noting that the FRH data for BOS had -11C at 980, which would have translated to about 15F at the surface for 12z this morning. That was with wind, too - so, yea, there's definitely a cold bias on this one as far as advection terms.

[free_man]

No I said at 900 yesterday morning it was 46 degrees and nothing was dripping at all. I was not lying, until the sun came out it was bone dry in my neighborhood. After it did I posted such. You basically called me a liar. Of course there will be melting I never denied it, however I remain steadfast in saying that this stuff is not your typical meltdown, tons of energy will need to be expelled to vaporize it. Do not twist my words youngster.

"Mid 40 s and no dripping in sunshine, wind is gusty too. Not often are these conditions seen, uniqueness of this winter continues. Getting interested in the big wind event Sat, perhaps the last of what haven't we seen this winter. The boring period actually was pretty interesting with an ice fog event, Windex, low humidity no snow melt at 45 and now the potential for a HWW event, good stuff, good times."

I agree with your post above, but the one below I do not. We're still in the boring period until next week.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's interesting that KBOS is only 4 degrees warmer than ORH. 18z MAV was pretty spot on for KBOS. I know a 340 wind direction is an ideal way to deliver cold to KBOS, but that's impressive to see 1000ft ORH and sea level KBOS only 4 degrees apart. The cold is rather shallow, so that might play a role. That, and a 340 wind is not a downslope wind like a 270-300 wind direction.

it's ism but i just find it interesting. playing around checking some of the obs vs what was modeled. some spots are definitely OK...some are way off. i knew first thing this morning when i woke up that something was up....just not sure exactly what it is/was. of course it doesn't matter either.

did you see some of the 2-m outputs?? they were insanely cold. i thought maybe with the snowpack and a good northerly, fairly unmodified delivery into NE those numbers might be closer to reality...but yikes. not close.

[CoastalWx]

That's a hugely correctable, balkishly humorous solution ... It's potentially wrong for a handful of reasons. Just to name two whoppers:

1) Nascent cold air being too liberally eredicated, taking a low to moderate scaled cyclogenesis and cleaving its way through dense polar/arctic hybrid laydown from over the weekend. Not likely... This is also a pattern change back to the -AO/-NAO coupled phase state - perhaps even 2010-2011 Part II (how ever long it lasts not withstanding)., and given to what that has meant in the past ...and considering the former, it's laughable taking a 1000mb low to BUF like that. Good luck with that!

2) Newly arriving westerly based -NAO is a suppression in latitude of the mean storm track, and the GFS appears to have invented its own planetary physics to defeat that directive

The GFS is really a classic -PNA patterm while the euro is not nearly as classic at all. I do kind of question the evolution of the GFS solution with some of the points you consider. Also, fast flow has been causing the GFS to flip-flop solutions from time to time. I wouldn't totally rule it out based on the -PNA , but it's times like these where ensemble come into play.

[CoastalWx]

it's ism but i just find it interesting. playing around checking some of the obs vs what was modeled. some spots are definitely OK...some are way off. i knew first thing this morning when i woke up that something was up....just not sure exactly what it is/was. of course it doesn't matter either.

did you see some of the 2-m outputs?? they were insanely cold. i thought maybe with the snowpack and a good northerly, fairly unmodified delivery into NE those numbers might be closer to reality...but yikes. not close.

I've ignored 2-M temps for a while. It's like we're going back to the old school way of forecasting. Remember on Sunday how you were saying that Monday would be very warm? It had that look...warm 850 temps, surface low to the north, and strong wsw boundary layer flow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You're actually right though now that I think about it. Yesterday at around this time I was noting that the FRH data for BOS had -11C at 980, which would have translated to about 15F at the surface for 12z this morning. That was with wind, too - so, yea, there's definitely a cold bias on this one as far as advection terms.

yeah. just an exercise in weenieism. LOL.

if you dig up some of the GFS and NAM raw output from yesterday for today...they are laughable. strange.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I've ignored 2-M temps for a while. It's like we're going back to the old school way of forecasting. Remember on Sunday how you were saying that Monday would be very warm? It had that look...warm 850 temps, surface low to the north, and strong wsw boundary layer flow.

you mean in general as in you don't use them or as in the last week or two?

[Mr Torchey]

GFS was a real bummer was not expecting to see 3 lakes cutters, hopefully things change.