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Winter returns with a vengeance thread


Damage In Tolland

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still waiting for your daily post from 2k to let everyone know how unique you are.

P.S. most of SNEs snow is brown, crusty, dirty and rotten. To say that the snow is still fresh and that we've had a day or two of above normal in Feb (when all is said and done) is simply a lie, you know it and I do too.

Wher e to begin with this one. First, I post from the places I live and work, they just happen to be at higher elev.. Often the obs from up here give others a glimpse of what's heading their way. The snow is still fresh and White here and we've had very little in the way of warmth this month or last. Perhaps where you live in Torchville things are different. When Feb is done this week will just be a foot note in another cold and snowy month.

Pete trolls with an obvious advantage, to me that is the weakest form.

I don't troll. I simply report what I see and admonish killjoys like you to enjoy Winter and stop p*ssing on everyone's parade.

Good imagery. "Dying snowbanks, mud and fossilized dog sh*t".

A sad tableau. No deeper cut than that to a weenie.

Good art, MRG!

High Praise from a true Artist. More snow for you Toot.

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24 here, torch on hold.

Will's 2/22-23 system is the Great White Hope (it will snow then as I'm skiing...always snows when I'm skiing)...after that I worry about the SE Ridge which doesn't want to go completely away. Be a dogfight I think.

Next week is interesting imo. It has a legit shot of either snow or some sort of snow to wintry mix. We'll be battling the se ridge for weeks perhaps, but it does look like we are coming into a late winter La Nina pattern, which is usually good for sne. There are some signs that a weak -nao does try to build, but I personally want to see it stronger, or have the NPAC ridge further east, in order to battle the -PNA.

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Next week is interesting imo. It has a legit shot of either snow or some sort of snow to wintry mix. We'll be battling the se ridge for weeks perhaps, but it does look like we are coming into a late winter La Nina pattern, which is usually good for sne. There are some signs that a weak -nao does try to build, but I personally want to see it stronger, or have the NPAC ridge further east, in order to battle the -PNA.

It'll be interesting for sure. We can do quite well in these situations so long as the boundary isn't too far south or eventually even north.

Either way I'm ready to get back to a more active pattern. In reality it's been about 12 days already since the last more significant threat and it's still another 7-8 days to the next one. 20 days in the heart of winter is harsh by any standard.

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I think they'll be left with around 16-18" by Sat. I can't see more than an 10" loss between Thu and Sat. In late Feb 1961 there was a snow pack of around 20" followed by a couple of torch days with highs in the upper 50s, dew points well into the 30s and some sunshine and none had more than a 5" loss in a single day at the co-op site in Stafford Springs.

1960-61 had at least 1" snow on the ground from Dec 12 to Mar 28 at Stafford Springs - going to be tough to break that record.

Staffordville's depth has been almost exactly Kevin's depth through the winter. Can't wait to compare the two through this week!

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I think they'll be left with around 16-18" by Sat. I can't see more than an 10" loss between Thu and Sat. In late Feb 1961 there was a snow pack of around 20" followed by a couple of torch days with highs in the upper 50s, dew points well into the 30s and some sunshine and none had more than a 5" loss in a single day at the co-op site in Stafford Springs.

1960-61 had at least 1" snow on the ground from Dec 12 to Mar 28 at Stafford Springs - going to be tough to break that record.

That is music to my ears.. dews look higher than that though.

off to Pittsfield again for the day.

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As far as I can tell just about ever ancillary site carrying the teleconnector index values are actually relying on the CDC and/or CPC, neither of which have published their nightly calculations since the 11th

Does anyone know of what is going on with our tax payer dollars this week? I was not aware of a planned outage - this bordering on annoying.

Pattern rife with snow chances in the extended.

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The higher dew points might work in your favor.

NAM has a solid deck of mid and low cloudiness for Fri for BDL-BOS-ORH. It's probably overdoing the low clouds, but given the advection of much higher dew points over the snow pack, advection fog is a distinct possibility Thu night into Fri morning.

That is music to my ears.. dews look higher than that though.

off to Pittsfield again for the day.

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pretty interesting to see how strong the ec ens (and really the op and the gfs/gefs as well) are making the west based -nao in the coming days.

the ridiculously negative PNA isn't going anywhere but quite a remarkable battle ground setting up over the northeastern part of the conus. with that -epo coming back per the ec ens and some blocking mixed with the se ridge we end up with a pretty nice looking set-up.

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pretty interesting to see how strong the ec ens (and really the op and the gfs/gefs as well) are making the west based -nao in the coming days.

the ridiculously negative PNA isn't going anywhere but quite a remarkable battle ground setting up over the northeastern part of the conus. with that -epo coming back per the ec ens and some blocking mixed with the se ridge we end up with a pretty nice looking set-up.

I'm a big fan of battle grounds...especially up here. -NAO not always good for us so like to the shifting from -NAO into gradients...that is where we pile it up. Love a -NAO late though...we can get the goods as we transition in, if the position is right, get a biggie during the peak, and then get a biggie as it pulls out. Love the setup we have in front of us! Woo Hoo!

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Muahahahahahahaaa...

SAT/SUN/MON...

AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR ANY WARM WEATHER DOESN/T LAST VERY

LONG. 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE

WILL ROLL COLD DICE FOR NEW ENGLAND AS NAO/AO BECOME NEGATIVE. SAT

APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH FROPA FRI NGT OR SAT AM

FOLLOWED BY CORE OF COLD AIR ARRIVING SAT NGT OR SUN. MODELS SUGGEST

POLAR FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH FRONTAL WAVE/S/

TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL

FOR WINTRY WEATHER SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH ITS A DAY 7-8

FORECAST SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER IN A

LA NINA AND NEGATIVE NAO/AO PHASE MODEL PREDICTABILITY IS LESS THAN

STELLAR.-- End Changed Discussion --

Although that last part is disconcerting (did Tip/Messenger write that?)

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The higher dew points might work in your favor.

NAM has a solid deck of mid and low cloudiness for Fri for BDL-BOS-ORH. It's probably overdoing the low clouds, but given the advection of much higher dew points over the snow pack, advection fog is a distinct possibility Thu night into Fri morning.

I joke around by saying the warm sector may have some junky mid level clouds, but I'm glad you see that as well. Some of the mid level RH fields indicate that. I also agree that Kevin will have plenty of snow left, and I tried to talk thim down from the cliff last night. I do think Thursday night into Friday night will be brutal with a big loss in snow, but I think he should be fine.

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pretty interesting to see how strong the ec ens (and really the op and the gfs/gefs as well) are making the west based -nao in the coming days.

the ridiculously negative PNA isn't going anywhere but quite a remarkable battle ground setting up over the northeastern part of the conus. with that -epo coming back per the ec ens and some blocking mixed with the se ridge we end up with a pretty nice looking set-up.

Yeah the EC ensembles once again look nice, and I'd take that in a heartbeat. The NAO does go + again towards late month and I think that may be a temporary warm up here, but weak ridging develops later in the 11-15 day, over Greenland. I guess the concern I have is if storms cut across sne, instead of off NJ. I suppose we still would get some sort of wintry precip, even if they cut across sne.

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Yeah the EC ensembles once again look nice, and I'd take that in a heartbeat. The NAO does go + again towards late month and I think that may be a temporary warm up here, but weak ridging develops later in the 11-15 day, over Greenland. I guess the concern I have is if storms cut across sne, instead of off NJ. I suppose we still would get some sort of wintry precip, even if they cut across sne.

Speaking of MBY, I'm hoping for one threat around 2/22 and then another at a later date. If that happens I'd be happy and I think that's a realistic expectation. Other than that I do think CNE and NNE are going to be favored and it will be a late ski season up north. Eventually I think we see the track you're talking about with lows riding over SNE versus ACK/Canal that we had a month ago. There's just not going to be enough blocking to drive most of them further SE...again IMO.

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Speaking of MBY, I'm hoping for one threat around 2/22 and then another at a later date. If that happens I'd be happy and I think that's a realistic expectation. Other than that I do think CNE and NNE are going to be favored and it will be a late ski season up north. Eventually I think we see the track you're talking about with lows riding over SNE versus ACK/Canal that we had a month ago. There's just not going to be enough blocking to drive most of them further SE...again IMO.

Yeah this could be real nice for NNE.

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Yeah the EC ensembles once again look nice, and I'd take that in a heartbeat. The NAO does go + again towards late month and I think that may be a temporary warm up here, but weak ridging develops later in the 11-15 day, over Greenland. I guess the concern I have is if storms cut across sne, instead of off NJ. I suppose we still would get some sort of wintry precip, even if they cut across sne.

Exactly....folks are falling into the trap of "go coastal or go home"......tainted events count, too and it's a reality that we will have to accept with the RNA so robust and the NAO waning at times.

I mean, say we get one good coastal for 10", then maybe four 2-5" tainters.....I'll take 18-30" more in March.

Possible March goes bigger than that, but I'd say that the aformentioned scenario is a good middle ground for expectations to be set.

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