ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Sorry, dude, but that is a day 10+ chart...just foolish. This pattern is fine for me. Yeah the more immediate threat next week certainly gives us a decent shot. You can see how the storm was crushed under the mild blocking in place and gives us a nice little snow event. Its certianly possible we get screwed, but we have a chance and that beats the current 10-12 day regime going back to last Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah the more immediate threat next week certainly gives us a decent shot. You can see how the storm was crushed under the mild blocking in place and gives us a nice little snow event. Its certianly possible we get screwed, but we have a chance and that beats the current 10-12 day regime going back to last Wednesday. Winter may be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Just hit 40mph at Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winter may be over. Hard to imagine having a 4th consecutive lame March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Just hit 40mph at Plymouth 41mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Hard to imagine having a 4th consecutive lame March It probably won't happen...I think we'll probably live in the edge for a while next week and perhaps into the final week of February with SWFEs/etc but then I think we'll see a bit more of a favorable pattern try to setup for larger storms in the first half of March. The analogs are split on the idea but hedge toward the stormier side. My gut says that is probably what happens given winters with large blocking/stormy periods to repeat them at some point later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It probably won't happen...I think we'll probably live in the edge for a while next week and perhaps into the final week of February with SWFEs/etc but then I think we'll see a bit more of a favorable pattern try to setup for larger storms in the first half of March. The analogs are split on the idea but hedge toward the stormier side. My gut says that is probably what happens given winters with large blocking/stormy periods to repeat them at some point later on. Yeah, I think this was actually an alright time for the atmosphere to go La Nina on us. Building up some solid cold anomalies in Canada that will start to spill south, and tighten the temp gradient, powering an active jet. At this point, I don't see any major storm threats, but certainly the SWF activity will be initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 number one sne inland areas wont lose that much snow this week still near 25- 36 on the ground in ct area of snow. winter will return by this weekend into march with good likely of snowstorm coming in the next two three weeks . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Hard to imagine having a 4th consecutive lame March I know....being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It probably won't happen...I think we'll probably live in the edge for a while next week and perhaps into the final week of February with SWFEs/etc but then I think we'll see a bit more of a favorable pattern try to setup for larger storms in the first half of March. The analogs are split on the idea but hedge toward the stormier side. My gut says that is probably what happens given winters with large blocking/stormy periods to repeat them at some point later on. Ding, ding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah, I think this was actually an alright time for the atmosphere to go La Nina on us. Building up some solid cold anomalies in Canada that will start to spill south, and tighten the temp gradient, powering an active jet. At this point, I don't see any major storm threats, but certainly the SWF activity will be initiated. Exactly....but I think we will. This break was just priming Canada for us....gonna be a great final stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 00z Euro shows a snow threat at 174-186h. Confluence is very strong and the whole thing actually gets shoved far enough south that we don't even get the best qpf...but still get several inches of low thickness snow. Its a good sign to see cold solutions like the GFS and Euro...as we know that SWFEs usually end up further north with time. Hopefully we don't see that shift start until a lot closer in. Still a legit risk of having this one run west of us enough to contaminate it significantly. But at any rate, the threat is still showing up. So perhaps we can finally have something to track as the warmest days of the torch are upon us late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 00z Euro shows a snow threat at 174-186h. Confluence is very strong and the whole thing actually gets shoved far enough south that we don't even get the best qpf...but still get several inches of low thickness snow. Its a good sign to see cold solutions like the GFS and Euro...as we know that SWFEs usually end up further north with time. Hopefully we don't see that shift start until a lot closer in. Still a legit risk of having this one run west of us enough to contaminate it significantly. But at any rate, the threat is still showing up. So perhaps we can finally have something to track as the warmest days of the torch are upon us late this week. Right. I think it's best to assume tainters and if some end up all snow, then great. Either way, fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It probably won't happen...I think we'll probably live in the edge for a while next week and perhaps into the final week of February with SWFEs/etc but then I think we'll see a bit more of a favorable pattern try to setup for larger storms in the first half of March. The analogs are split on the idea but hedge toward the stormier side. My gut says that is probably what happens given winters with large blocking/stormy periods to repeat them at some point later on. i apologize in advance for the refugee weenie question from another region........ are you optimistic or pessimistic about a return of snow threats down here (NJ/nyc). if there's no snow at all down here, we'll have had back to back 54" winters.... yet plenty of snowless months (jan2010, march 2010, feb 2011, march 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 i apologize in advance for the refugee weenie question from another region........ are you optimistic or pessimistic about a return of snow threats down here (NJ/nyc). if there's no snow at all down here, we'll have had back to back 54" winters.... yet plenty of snowless months (jan2010, march 2010, feb 2011, march 2011). Obviously it gets tougher the further south you go late in the season, but I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't at least one more decent threat down there. Not sure this next one is the best setup for NJ though...despite the OP Euro run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Obviously it gets tougher the further south you go late in the season, but I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't at least one more decent threat down there. Not sure this next one is the best setup for NJ though...despite the OP Euro run tonight. thanks. not withstanding any particular pattern, historically march 1 - march 10 has still been prime time for snow in north/central NJ... but recent years havent been too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Enjoy your rain: Seriously, we both need the SE ridge to back off a bit or the winter may be over. It doesn't look that pretty right now even for SNE. Just like old times....lol. I agree it may be a bit more dicey for your area. Latitude will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winds never amounted to much here. I'm still trying to access the high wind from yesterday. My daily history is showing 23 for the post-midnight high. I had 24 yesterday afternooon. Breezy, but weird that it was that low. I guess the cold was delayed? 17.3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Pretty dam windy out, and apparently a nasty squall came through Andover last night around 9:50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 LOL at sock's posts last night. Remember he was posting the same things in early Jan? Well we know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Euro ensemble were colder than op I hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 LOL at sock's posts last night. Remember he was posting the same things in early Jan? Well we know how that turned out. Well he has a lot more reason to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well he has a lot more reason to worry. He was worried then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Okay--something has to be off with my anamometer. There's no way it's reading correctly. The wind is ripping here, and even though it's a few hundrewed feet away, it's gott to bee experiencing the same gusts.. Maybe something froze in it. What was the delay in the cold from, any ideas? 16.2 attm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 We got a huge monster gust around 2:30AM that shook the house. Nice snow squall last night that someone said wouldn't happen. 16.3F attm and still dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 14/2, windy and cold. Should be a tad blustery at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 ice warrior has like 5 women to juggle tonite...not counting his fling with the rev. rapid hand motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 man wind is just howling here. window rattling gusts all night long. just a precursor perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Enjoy your rain: Seriously, we both need the SE ridge to back off a bit or the winter may be over. It doesn't look that pretty right now even for SNE. ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/BOX/HYDBOX Staffordville had 28" as of Mon morning. Anyone have that co-op site that has snowdepths in CT.Curious what Staffordville has left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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