Snowpack vs Torch

[NorthShoreWx]

I missed the torch yesterday as I was in Minnesota (where they have been seeing plenty of melting as well) but was surprised that we still have 11" on the ground this morning. There are definitely more barespots down around ISP (although I heard some people who had come from a west coast vacation as our plane landed remarking 'ooh, there's still snow on the ground').

There is a lot of variability due to the effect of stronger sun and we've got our first barespots under some small evergreens in an exposed location, but still significant snowpack. I took advantage of the fact that you can walk on top of it without bothering to change my sneakers and took some photos at around 3:30 this afternoon. There are plenty of sights that I am more used to seeing in in the mountains, like a winters worth of debris getting exposed as the snow slowly recedes under the hemlocks. It looked pretty cool to be standing on the snow pack looking down on my picnic table. It's also neat to see how far back the edge of the snow melts away from the heat of the sunny driveway.

[RU848789]

I like the blocking showing up for next week

As per my post in the other thread, I fully expect at least one inch of our 7-8" ( as of last night) of high water content snowpack (guessing 3:1 ratio of snow depth to water, vs. the usual 10:1) to make it to Monday, Day 58. People need to remember that this snowpack will take about 3X as long to melt per inch of snowdepth as an equivalent depth of 10:1 ratio fresh snow, as the melting rate in inches per day is inversely proportional to the moisture content ratio. At the very least, I think it's going to be a close call - if this were just 7-8" of a fresh snowfall, no way it lasts through Friday, let alone Monday.

[nzucker]

Ed, I'm amazed to see how much more snowpack remains there on Long Island...here in Southern Westchester, it's getting pretty patchy except for north-facing lawns and fully wooded areas, and there are bare spots showing up. I'd say the snow depth is about 5" in the woods behind my house, but they're at 350' elevation in a big nature preserve...there's barely anything on the ground in sunny spots downtown near the Hudson River. Even my front lawn is just patches of deep snow intermingled with a few spots of ground showing. There's a lot of variation though here: driving on the Saw Mill today, most of the sides of the highway were barren near the Dobbs Ferry exit. However, as I climbed a massive hill near Elmsford going north, up to around 500', there must have been nearly 6" remaining in the woods. I guess it's that time of year, but I wouldn't expect much to survive the torch in the end...

A lot of the difference probably has to do with the poorer radiational cooling here due to more urban heat island effect, as well as the fact that we only received 14" of snow in the late January storm whereas you guys probably had closer to 18". I did have a max snow depth around two feet, however..sad to see it mostly gone!

Currently 28.2/8

[Brian5671]

Great pics Northshore wx. That is pretty much what things look like here across the sound...I thought the same thing about the debris that is starting to show up as we melt down...

[Alpha5]

Ed, I'm amazed to see how much more snowpack remains there on Long Island...here in Southern Westchester, it's getting pretty patchy except for north-facing lawns and fully wooded areas, and there are bare spots showing up. I'd say the snow depth is about 5" in the woods behind my house, but they're at 350' elevation in a big nature preserve...there's barely anything on the ground in sunny spots downtown near the Hudson River. Even my front lawn is just patches of deep snow intermingled with a few spots of ground showing. There's a lot of variation though here: driving on the Saw Mill today, most of the sides of the highway were barren near the Dobbs Ferry exit. However, as I climbed a massive hill near Elmsford going north, up to around 500', there must have been nearly 6" remaining in the woods. I guess it's that time of year, but I wouldn't expect much to survive the torch in the end...

A lot of the difference probably has to do with the poorer radiational cooling here due to more urban heat island effect, as well as the fact that we only received 14" of snow in the late January storm whereas you guys probably had closer to 18". I did have a max snow depth around two feet, however..sad to see it mostly gone!

Currently 28.2/8

Odd, I have 14" here. Even the lesser places have 10" or so.

My house is always one of the last to loose snow cover though. I'll be driving around town and wont see any snow until I get back home and there will still be an inch or two. Most of the lawn faces the north or the east

[JBG]

I agree with this.

I will have a trace amount on the ground.

Ours is still abundant on north-facing hills, gone on south-facing hills, patchy on the flat.

[JBG]

Felt weird after it was 32F and extremely blustery at JFK, landed at Santiago to summertime weather and fresh produce markets all over. The weather turned torrid a couple days into my trip though as +20C 850s made it all the way down towards Puerto Montt in Southern Chile, very unusual but not unheard of in a La Niña summer. We didn't get much of a cooldown until late March/early April, was a long stretch of above average temperatures in Chile.

For Chile don't you mean "El Niño summer"? I don't think 2009 was known for Niña-ish condiitions unless you're referring to the almost jocular references to "La Niño" when that NH's fall's Niño patterns just didn't want to take hold?

[nzucker]

For Chile don't you mean "El Niño summer"? I don't think 2009 was known for Niña-ish condiitions unless you're referring to the almost jocular references to "La Niño" when that NH's fall's Niño patterns just didn't want to take hold?

We were still in La Niña during Jan/Feb 2009, which is Chile's summer. The 2008-09 NH Winter was a weak La Niña.

[NorthShoreWx]

Ed, I'm amazed to see how much more snowpack remains there on Long Island...here in Southern Westchester, it's getting pretty patchy except for north-facing lawns and fully wooded areas, and there are bare spots showing up. I'd say the snow depth is about 5" in the woods behind my house, but they're at 350' elevation in a big nature preserve...there's barely anything on the ground in sunny spots downtown near the Hudson River. Even my front lawn is just patches of deep snow intermingled with a few spots of ground showing. There's a lot of variation though here: driving on the Saw Mill today, most of the sides of the highway were barren near the Dobbs Ferry exit. However, as I climbed a massive hill near Elmsford going north, up to around 500', there must have been nearly 6" remaining in the woods. I guess it's that time of year, but I wouldn't expect much to survive the torch in the end...

A lot of the difference probably has to do with the poorer radiational cooling here due to more urban heat island effect, as well as the fact that we only received 14" of snow in the late January storm whereas you guys probably had closer to 18". I did have a max snow depth around two feet, however..sad to see it mostly gone!

Currently 28.2/8

Between the sleet/ice storm, and some rain events that froze up rather quickly, I think that was all the equivalent of getting more snow as far as longer term durability of the snowpack is concerned. I've lived on LI a long time and don't recall having this much on the ground without any new snowfall for at least 2 weeks...especially given some of the rainstorms and torches we have endured over that period. Our SWE probably maxed around 6" (I melted down 5.5" the one time I checked). There's probably 3 or 4" SWE out there now. I can literally jump up and down without sinking in. It will probably soften up big time this week, although I think overall snowcover survives the week. This is defintitely something of a meterological freak having this type of snowpack around here. On the downside, for the past 2+ weeks we've been going through the equivalent of spring in the mountains where we slowly melt out. This would be a crazy early spring in the mountains, but I know what that looks like and thats what we have going on around here. Relatively speaking we are playing out of our league and I am enjoying it. Can we do this again next year?

FYI, there are definitely more bare spots down toward ISP, but the climo report of 0 snowcover is not representative. I was down on main street in Smithtown tonight and it looked like there was a lot of bare ground right along Main Street, but thats very common. I'm not sure why, but I think it's a combination of exposure to sun and wind, salt spray from passing traffic, and perhaps just a hint of mini-heat island. The town also carts away truck loads of snow from Main Street (they closed it one night about 3 weeks ago for that purpose), but they don't plow grassy areas. I'm about 2 miles north of town and between here and there is solidly encased in icy snow.

Last thought...need some fresh powder so I can use the x-c skis again...it hasn't been worth it for the past week or two despite the snow pack.

[A-L-E-X]

Ed, I'm amazed to see how much more snowpack remains there on Long Island...here in Southern Westchester, it's getting pretty patchy except for north-facing lawns and fully wooded areas, and there are bare spots showing up. I'd say the snow depth is about 5" in the woods behind my house, but they're at 350' elevation in a big nature preserve...there's barely anything on the ground in sunny spots downtown near the Hudson River. Even my front lawn is just patches of deep snow intermingled with a few spots of ground showing. There's a lot of variation though here: driving on the Saw Mill today, most of the sides of the highway were barren near the Dobbs Ferry exit. However, as I climbed a massive hill near Elmsford going north, up to around 500', there must have been nearly 6" remaining in the woods. I guess it's that time of year, but I wouldn't expect much to survive the torch in the end...

A lot of the difference probably has to do with the poorer radiational cooling here due to more urban heat island effect, as well as the fact that we only received 14" of snow in the late January storm whereas you guys probably had closer to 18". I did have a max snow depth around two feet, however..sad to see it mostly gone!

Currently 28.2/8

Sounds like youre in an urbanized area like me lol. There was also another storm earlier in Jan when we got 10 inches or so and Ed and William got closer to 20"

[Sampson]

Sounds like youre in an urbanized area like me lol. There was also another storm earlier in Jan when we got 10 inches or so and Ed and William got closer to 20"

This is what I was thinking throughout the last few posts. That Jan 11-12 storm dumped almost twice the amount of snow out east, and even though we may have done a bit better on the Jan 26-27 storm, the cold (and a quick layer of icy slop) that followed the storm on the 11th and 12th really helped solidify a stronger base for the folks out there. Once that top layer melted, they had a much thicker layer to work with.

[Isotherm]

Still several inches of snow remaining at home in Monmouth County, but here in Villanova, we've gone under 50% coverage now, with any snow generally 1" or less in the sun, and about 3" in the shade.

[Alpha5]

Pack holding out exceptionally well here, still 14. Measured 13, 13.5, 14, and 15, so took 14 as the average.

Even in places in direct sunlight most of the day still have at least 10" on them. And so with the below 0c temps returning Saturday morning, I fully expect my area to retain most of snow cover, the city will be a different story, but things are looking good here.

Again, my house is in one of the best places for retaining snow (N facing lawn, plenty of shade), so my numbers most likely are on the high end for my town.

[Brian5671]

Upton's got some warm temps through Friday--some places wont get below freezing tonight and almost no one tomorrow night...

-

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WITH HIGH PRES ANCHORED OFFSHORE...DEEP SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE

THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THU NIGHT...WITH

LOWS IN/AROUND NYC IN THE LOWER 40S...AND LOWS MOST ELSEWHERE

RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND

THE OFFSHORE HIGH MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF

A WESTERLY FLOW...AND DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS ACROSS NYC AND

NORTHEAST NJ WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITH

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S MOST ELSEWHERE. ACROSS EASTERN LONG

ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT...SW FLOW OFF THE COLDER OCEAN AND LI

SOUND WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

[Isotherm]

Snowpack holding strong, but the real test comes tomorrow night-friday night.

[Alpha5]

Snowpack holding strong, but the real test comes tomorrow night-friday night.

Exactly....

How much is left in the Park?

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm not sure how much bare ground we'll wind up with following the torch, but where its sheltered, I'm quite sure that there will still be plenty of snow on the ground next week.

My house faces wsw. The front is flat and behind the house a hill slopes away generally with an easterly aspect, although its part of a glacial ravine that runs mostly toward the SE and you can find slopes facing in just about any direction. 100% cover in the trees, even where the slope is toward the south. Exposed southerly aspects are getting chewed up by the sun, although we don't have much of that in the immediate neighborhood. The snow stakes in the middle of the lawn are still barely changing from day to day (still over 10"), but the barespot under the evergreens I posted a photo of has grown since yesterday.

[Alpha5]

I think NYC might squeak by recording a T of snow on saturday, then hopefully we get a nice refresher early next week

[Chris L]

I have around 4" on the ground (of course, less in the sun spots areas). It would be nice to see it hold before we get more snow potentially, but its a long shot.

[Isotherm]

Exactly....

How much is left in the Park?

Alpha, I think the depth was 5" as of this morning. I doubt they lost much today.

[Diego]

I think NYC might squeak by recording a T of snow on saturday, then hopefully we get a nice refresher early next week

4" as of 4pm today. But with temps. in the upper 50's tomorrow and low 60's on Friday, it's going to be tough to maintain anything thereafter, despite the density of it.

[rgwp96]

 my yard has 8 in sun areas to 15 in no sun non disturbed areas. ares walked on that are in the complete sun have some bare spots but majority of yards still have a solid snowcover 

[nzucker]

Still holding on to 3-4" in Dobbs Ferry...some bare spots in south-facing yards and street sides, some areas of 6" snow cover in elevated woodlands.

40/30

Mostly Cloudy

Wind: Calm

The torch begins...then more snow and cold next week. 12z ECM has -15C 850s in here Monday so that's going to feel quite harsh compared to temperatures near 60F Friday...there may be several days next week when Westchester does not get out of the 20s, especially if we receive fresh snow cover from the overrunning event.

[listarz]

This is what I'm seeing here as well. Maybe not as MUCH snow, but similar. Still VERY little grass to be seen.

I missed the torch yesterday as I was in Minnesota (where they have been seeing plenty of melting as well) but was surprised that we still have 11" on the ground this morning. There are definitely more barespots down around ISP (although I heard some people who had come from a west coast vacation as our plane landed remarking 'ooh, there's still snow on the ground').

There is a lot of variability due to the effect of stronger sun and we've got our first barespots under some small evergreens in an exposed location, but still significant snowpack. I took advantage of the fact that you can walk on top of it without bothering to change my sneakers and took some photos at around 3:30 this afternoon. There are plenty of sights that I am more used to seeing in in the mountains, like a winters worth of debris getting exposed as the snow slowly recedes under the hemlocks. It looked pretty cool to be standing on the snow pack looking down on my picnic table. It's also neat to see how far back the edge of the snow melts away from the heat of the sunny driveway.

[jconsor]

As others have mentioned, this snowpack has a very high water equivalent and thus will melt slower than usual given the high temperatures. Some recent measurements:

1) Hawthorne, NJ (Bergen County): 14" on ground, water equiv. 3.3"

2) South Salem, NY (northern Westchester County): 10" on ground, water equiv. 3.3"

3) Upton, NY (Suffolk County), 5" on ground, water equiv. 2.8"

Since Central Park was down to only 4" as of Wed morning, it's likely they'll be left with a trace by Sat. However, parts of the North Shore of LI and NE NJ, and most areas of CT and interior SE NY north of southern Westchester have enough snow cover that they should be able to survive the torch with some remaining.

[dbc]

Accuweather keeps us under 60 tomorrow. NWS barely has us hitting 60 and wunderground also keeps me under 60. We shall see if they bust too cold.

[psv88]

North Central nassau snowpack dwindling...lost a lot this week...some yards have 6+ still, but only those that are fenced in and shade...a lot have bare spots...including my own, but still some areas have 8+ from driifts from 12/26...i think that i lose everything by the weekend...whcih is ok, its looking sad and pathetic to be honest

[Stormlover74]

I think there's going to be alot more cloud cover and even a shower around to keep temps down. Could be one of those situations where its 5 to 10 degrees warmer the further inland and south you are and in and around the city /coastal areas it stays in the mid to upper 50s

Accuweather keeps us under 60 tomorrow. NWS barely has us hitting 60 and wunderground also keeps me under 60. We shall see if they bust too cold.

[dbc]

I think there's going to be alot more cloud cover and even a shower around to keep temps down. Could be one of those situations where its 5 to 10 degrees warmer the further inland and south you are and in and around the city /coastal areas it stays in the mid to upper 50s

All along, I really thought that mid-upper 50's would be the warmest we would be able to get in my area and even that was pushing it. We shall see I guess.

[RU848789]

As per my post in the other thread, I fully expect at least one inch of our 7-8" ( as of last night) of high water content snowpack (guessing 3:1 ratio of snow depth to water, vs. the usual 10:1) to make it to Monday, Day 58. People need to remember that this snowpack will take about 3X as long to melt per inch of snowdepth as an equivalent depth of 10:1 ratio fresh snow, as the melting rate in inches per day is inversely proportional to the moisture content ratio. At the very least, I think it's going to be a close call - if this were just 7-8" of a fresh snowfall, no way it lasts through Friday, let alone Monday.

Going to be a close call - as of this morning, I've only lost 1-2" of snowpack, so I still have nearly 6" everywhere on my front and back yards. Plenty of yards and open areas that have no shade just have patchy snow (from drifts) left here, but I guess I have just enough shade to make a difference. I'm hoping I still have 2" left by Saturday morning and can then survive the colder days until Monday with an inch of snowcover. And then get some more!