jconsor Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think we'll easily see low 50s in NYC, and LI aside from the South Shore and Twin Forks of Suffolk County. Guidance is definitely running too low and not accounting for the steady or slowly rising temps tonight. With that kind of a launching pad, do you think 50 is within easy reach tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Friday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday looks to be the worst of the heat, we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I went with 50F for NYC and 46F in Danbury, currently 48F in NYC and 45F at Danbury. Both places stayed steady overnight and have only slowly risen this morning. Temps will probably peak around midday/early afternoon, before they max out and eventually start falling. MOS was HORRIBLE last night and even the current RUC is a solid 10F too cold in most areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Definitely a rollercoaster March-like week ahead. Mild today with highs reaching the 50s, windy and bitterly cold by tomorrow morning only getting up into the 30s, then mild again and pushing 60 by Friday or maybe higher if we get a decent amount of sun, then back down to cold by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Well after a day where the temp rose from the high 30's to the lower 50's with a glaring sun for a good part of the day, the snowpack here remains strongly intact, only shaving 1" of today. Yesterday: 15" Today: 14" Like I said before..two days of 50's will not destroy this pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well after a day where the temp rose from the high 30's to the lower 50's with a glaring sun for a good part of the day, the snowpack here remains strongly intact, only shaving 1" of today. Yesterday: 15" Today: 14" Like I said before..two days of 50's will not destroy this pack. High dewpoints on Friday will, however...kiss most of goodbye by sunset Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I was actually shocked to come home from work to see virtually zero loss to the snow pack, even living in a shady neighborhood with lots of 50+ yr old trees I figured the 57 temp would do its damage. There was a noticeable increase in patching in the nearby fields but enen those are still above 50 % coverage. So, with tonights cold front, looks like at least an other two more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 My pack is melting from the edges toward the center mostly. Can't see the grass anywhere in the front or back yard yet. Good thing 'cause when I do it's going to be one muddy mess. And I have dogs who will be filthy then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 High dewpoints on Friday will, however...kiss most of goodbye by sunset Friday... NWS has us for upper 40s on friday, it was warmer by at least 7-10 degrees today and we still didnt loose as much as we should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 See plenty of grass here on the south shore...by fri afternoon just the big parking lot piles will be left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 High dewpoints on Friday will, however...kiss most of goodbye by sunset Friday... I will laugh at posts like this when we barely touch 50 on Friday. This part of the winter reminds me of a similar stretch of the winter in 2000-01 when I lived in Madison, NJ but this year just has more snow and a lengthier snowpack. Everyone touted warmups a few days out back then on the good ole Wright Weather bulletin board (try the WWBB Throwback skin out for this board to get a taste for those who don't know what I am talking about) and then reality set in and temperature forecasts (including the NWS) would bust by being constantly five-ten degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I will laugh at posts like this when we barely touch 50 on Friday. This winter reminds me of 2000-01 just with more snow and a lengthiner snowpack. Everyone touted warmups a few days out back then on the good ole Wright Weather bulletin board (try the WWBB Throwback skin out for this board to get a taste) and then reality set in and temperature forecasts (including the NWS) would bust by being constantly five-ten degrees too warm. I agree with this 2000-2001 comment. By the way, I have a video of December blizzard of 2010 for Howell, NJ, which got 28 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 How close to LI Sound are you? That made a great deal of difference on temps and snow melt today and will again on Thu and Fri. For instance, BDR was in mid 40s most of the day, aside from a 1.5 hour spike where the temp got into the low 50s. However, areas in SW CT that are inland and don't have much elevation, such as North Stamford and Glenville, got into the upper 50s and were above 50 for about 6 hours. On Fri, much of interior SW CT will likely exceed 60, but BDR will be lucky to get out of the low 50s. Well after a day where the temp rose from the high 30's to the lower 50's with a glaring sun for a good part of the day, the snowpack here remains strongly intact, only shaving 1" of today. Yesterday: 15" Today: 14" Like I said before..two days of 50's will not destroy this pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Are you kidding me? Temps were about 10 degrees warmer than forecast on Mon, and are likely underforecast on Fri with a similar synoptic pattern. I will laugh at posts like this when we barely touch 50 on Friday. This winter reminds me of 2000-01 just with more snow and a lengthiner snowpack. Everyone touted warmups a few days out back then on the good ole Wright Weather bulletin board (try the WWBB Throwback skin out for this board to get a taste) and then reality set in and temperature forecasts (including the NWS) would bust by being constantly five-ten degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I will laugh at posts like this when we barely touch 50 on Friday. This winter reminds me of 2000-01 just with more snow and a lengthiner snowpack. Everyone touted warmups a few days out back then on the good ole Wright Weather bulletin board (try the WWBB Throwback skin out for this board to get a taste) and then reality set in and temperature forecasts (including the NWS) would bust by being constantly five-ten degrees too warm. You are missing the point. Forget the temperature..... Yesterday had dewpoints in the upper 20's. Friday, they will be in the 40's. That will lead to alot of melting, that coupled with Wed and Thursday's warmth will wipe it all out except for areas that had drifts and of course shady areas....and for the record, temps busted TOO HIGH yesteday--calls were for the upper 40's, instead we hit nearly 60 in most spots. Definitely not like 00-01 Not sure what you are looking at but NWS zone forecast has me at 50 Thurs and mid 50's Friday-with no subfreezing lows for Thur, Fri and Sat nights.....accuweather shows similar #'s.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 High dewpoints on Friday will, however...kiss most of goodbye by sunset Friday... how about my snowman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You are missing the point. Forget the temperature..... Yesterday had dewpoints in the upper 20's. Friday, they will be in the 40's. That will lead to alot of melting, that coupled with Wed and Thursday's warmth will wipe it all out except for areas that had drifts and of course shady areas....and for the record, temps busted TOO HIGH yesteday--calls were for the upper 40's, instead we hit nearly 60 in most spots. Definitely not like 00-01 Not sure what you are looking at but NWS zone forecast has me at 50 Thurs and mid 50's Friday-with no subfreezing lows for Thur, Fri and Sat nights.....accuweather shows similar #'s.... I was in CT all day yesterday and it most certainly did not get to 60. 50 at best. I was out in Mystic throughout the day so perhaps the proximity to the sound/ocean contributed to that. I understand your points about dewpoints and it remains to be seen if what you say verifies. I won't believe it until I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Are you kidding me? Temps were about 10 degrees warmer than forecast on Mon, and are likely underforecast on Fri with a similar synoptic pattern. It depends on where you were not everywhere busted that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I agree with this 2000-2001 comment. By the way, I have a video of December blizzard of 2010 for Howell, NJ, which got 28 inches.... This is awesome. Thank you so much! Love seeing something like this for my hometown. That total pretty much matches the 1996 blizzard and the clips here resemble exactly what it looked like there during/after the 1996 blizzard. Drifts may have been worse than what I am seeing here in 1996. Digging the cars out from the driveway were much more taxing than it would be here. I had snow roofs over my head while I helped dig out my neighbor's car from the driveway. Edit: looking again I see some situations depicted here where there were drifts that would have put a snow roof over your head while digging out the cars from the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I was in CT all day yesterday and it most certainly did not get to 60. 50 at best. I was out in Mystic throughout the day so perhaps the proximity to the sound/ocean contributed to that. I understand your points about dewpoints and it remains to be seen if what you say verifies. I won't believe it until I see it. We'll see what happens! Mystic/New London areas are among the coolest spots in CT in the spring and early summer btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Mystic/New London areas are among the coolest spots in CT in the spring and early summer btw... Well that explains it then, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I will laugh at posts like this when we barely touch 50 on Friday. This part of the winter reminds me of a similar stretch of the winter in 2000-01 when I lived in Madison, NJ but this year just has more snow and a lengthier snowpack. Everyone touted warmups a few days out back then on the good ole Wright Weather bulletin board (try the WWBB Throwback skin out for this board to get a taste for those who don't know what I am talking about) and then reality set in and temperature forecasts (including the NWS) would bust by being constantly five-ten degrees too warm. ????? Not hitting 50??? You live in NJ, you will be in the 50s maybe touching 60. Maybe you wont hit the mid 60s like I will in Central Jersey but where are you getting the basis for talking about touting warmups that dont happen. Wasnt yesterday warmer by far than progged. I hit 58. Actually more often than not the warmups are underforecasted as they hedge on going to high right now I have about 1/3 of the landscape down to bare grass where I am and maybe 1 inch on average elsewhere with the big plowed glacier slowing eroding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 ????? Not hitting 50??? You live in NJ, you will be in the 50s maybe touching 60. Maybe you wont hit the mid 60s like I will in Central Jersey but where are you getting the basis for talking about touting warmups that dont happen. Wasnt yesterday warmer by far than progged. I hit 58. Actually more often than not the warmups are underforecasted as they hedge on going to high right now I have about 1/3 of the landscape down to bare grass where I am and maybe 1 inch on average elsewhere with the big plowed glacier slowing eroding Like I said, I will believe it when I see it. Why should I believe any model guidance three-four days out to get anything right. Yesterday forecasts busted too cold, one example touting cold but turned out warmer whoopty doo but this also proves that guidance was incorrect 24 hours out nevermind 3-4 days out! I am not talking about snowpack eroding or not eroding. I am talking about temperature forecasts or any forecast for that matter being unreliable 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 60+ in SW CT? I'm skeptical. Today ended up below guidance here, even though I was sure we'd actually go above. 27F at 2pm, not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Cannot believe how much snowcover remains in Eastern Queens, Western/Central Nassau. My yard, shade and sun, still has at minimum 3 inches up to 10 inches where the drifts were + shade...it is also interesting to see the different layers from the storms...This cement is so durable its crazy. Just further south in nassau there is much much less snow, but i gather that northern nassau still must have 6+ in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 How close to LI Sound are you? That made a great deal of difference on temps and snow melt today and will again on Thu and Fri. For instance, BDR was in mid 40s most of the day, aside from a 1.5 hour spike where the temp got into the low 50s. However, areas in SW CT that are inland and don't have much elevation, such as North Stamford and Glenville, got into the upper 50s and were above 50 for about 6 hours. On Fri, much of interior SW CT will likely exceed 60, but BDR will be lucky to get out of the low 50s. Were you surprised we touched 60 here yesterday on the south shore of LI? It actually felt pretty awesome! Im glad the old snowpack is mostly gone, it was getting dirty and yucky. I hope we get a bigtime hot summer like last year-- nothing like W and NW downsloping winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ok this is odd. NYC has 6"... Newark has 2" on the ground. Either way, it's gonna tie 1947-1948.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ok this is odd. NYC has 6"... Newark has 2" on the ground. Either way, it's gonna tie 1947-1948.... NYC=park. EWR=airport. That's probably the reason why lol. Is EWR seasonal snowfall total more than NYC? I think theyre a few inches ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 NYC=park. EWR=airport. That's probably the reason why lol. Is EWR seasonal snowfall total more than NYC? I think theyre a few inches ahead. Now that is likely the reason why! yeah EWR has 63.3" NYC has 56.1" Next week: hope to add 2-4" on it, maybe 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Now that is likely the reason why! yeah EWR has 63.3" NYC has 56.1" Next week: hope to add 2-4" on it, maybe 5". I like the blocking showing up for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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