Alpha5 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Many places will still have 12" of snowpack left when the torch begins next week. While differences in models exist, the consensus is for a couple days over 50 possibly pushing into the 60's in some places, before the cold air returns. So, in your backyard who comes out on top? Will the snowpack withstand the major torch or will it succumb to the warmest weather this winter? IMBY Prediction Current Snowpack: 15" Predicted Snowpack after Torch: 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Probably nothing but piles left after the torch. I've got 10" of glacier but I don't have too much faith with two consecutive days probably near 60F and more importantly overnights above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Best chances to keep any snowpack will be LI and Coastal CT with seabreeze keeping temps lower during the warmer days. Otherwise most places will only have the plow piles left after this week's warmup IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Probably nothing but piles left after the torch. I've got 10" of glacier but I don't have too much faith with two consecutive days probably near 60F and more importantly overnights above freezing. I agree with this. I will have a trace amount on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 there will be nothing left im wondering how much i will have left ill probabyl lose about a foot at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 46 and sunny now but snowpack holding strong. Can still walk on top, and it takes some effort getting the ruler through down to the grass (about 8-9" deep). Late week will be when we really melt, with the warm overnights, much like 47-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 there will be nothing left im wondering how much i will have left ill probabyl lose about a foot at least Except for perhaps a few inches on Wed. and Thurs., I think you'll be safe thru at least early March. Per Environment Canada: Metro Montréal - Laval. Today..Snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h this afternoon. High minus 3. Tonight..Snow becoming mixed with rain overnight. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h near midnight. Temperature rising to plus 1 by morning. Monday..Snow mixed with rain changing to rain near noon and ending late in the afternoon then clearing. Wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming northwest 30 gusting to 50 early in the afternoon. High plus 2. Tuesday..Sunny. Low minus 17. High minus 7. Wednesday..Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. Low minus 10. High plus 5. Thursday..Cloudy. Low plus 2. High 8. Friday..Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. Low minus 1. High plus 2. Saturday..Periods of snow. Low minus 6. High minus 6. Normals for the period..Low minus 13. High minus 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Nothing left but piles unless it ends up being cloudy---I think models are underdoing the warmth for Thur-sat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Central Park took a beating yesterday and today especially. We still have approximately 2-4" or 3-5" left, but that could be 1-3" in the next few hours. The slopes that are facing west, like the hill I take my son sledding on, are still in decent shape, but I'm guessing I'll start seeing some mud even there sometime on Tuesday. With that in mind, I plan on taking him for one last hurrah tomorrow afternoon. It's been quite a ride, and it really is amazing to think that I've had the opportunity to take him sledding for the the last 45+ days. In my 6+ years living in Manhattan, I'm not sure there has ever been a stretch that exceeded 14 days of snowpack, and here we are approaching 50. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Best chances to keep any snowpack will be LI and Coastal CT with seabreeze keeping temps lower during the warmer days. Otherwise most places will only have the plow piles left after this week's warmup IMO. I can assure you, at least in western LI there will NOTHNG left other than the huge piles...my backyard and most of my front yard are already bare (other than the areas that are piles from placing the shoveled snow on).... and if I knew how to add a pic (way to inept) I would show a pic I just took of my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I bet NYC hits 70 sometime next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I bet NYC hits 70 sometime next weekend. Yeah.... in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Central Park took a beating yesterday and today especially. We still have approximately 2-4" or 3-5" left, but that could be 1-3" in the next few hours. The slopes that are facing west, like the hill I take my son sledding on, are still in decent shape, but I'm guessing I'll start seeing some mud even there sometime on Tuesday. With that in mind, I plan on taking him for one last hurrah tomorrow afternoon. It's been quite a ride, and it really is amazing to think that I've had the opportunity to take him sledding for the the last 45+ days. In my 6+ years living in Manhattan, I'm not sure there has ever been a stretch that exceeded 14 days of snowpack, and here we are approaching 50. What a winter! Not really. Central Park still had 8" as of yesterday. Here in Monmouth County, I'm at 48F right now, but snowpack is essentially the same. The abundant cloud cover definitely helped out, but this high-density glacier is going to need a 60+ day to take a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I don't think 3-5" at this point is a bad guess. There has been a lot of melting overnight and all day today. Maybe Central park zoo has some magical snowpack saving power, but 5" is a stretch where I live, and I'm only 1/2 mile west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I don't think 3-5" at this point is a bad guess. There has been a lot of melting overnight and all day today. Maybe Central park zoo has some magical snowpack saving power, but 5" is a stretch where I live, and I'm only 1/2 mile west of there. About 1" melting for this entire weekend here, too cloudy and the nights were sub 20 still. With this high density snowpack we're going to need more than a 50 degree day to melt it. I did notice late this afternoon, the top layer was softening up a bit as I now sink down a couple inches when walking on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Still 7 to 10 in front, 3 to 7 in back. Did notice some fields around the mall with bare patching so I'm guessing by weds or Thursday we' ll be below 50% thus making 52 or 53 days final consecutive snow cover days number here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Its really only a 2 to 3 day warmup (55 or above) and the best chance for 60 is Friday. I suppose that could go 5 to 10 degrees higher if the models are underestimating the warmth I bet NYC hits 70 sometime next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Made it into the 40's for a decent period of time today....but low DP's and cloud cover prevented any snowpack loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 there are some areas now with no snow at all, other areas maybe 1-2, yes the glacier are still there but I think after tomorrow that will be the only snow left here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I am guessing/hoping that the piles of snow that are taking up valuable street parking spots by me in Queens, will be gone by the time I get home from Florida on Saturday. Many places will still have 12" of snowpack left when the torch begins next week. While differences in models exist, the consensus is for a couple days over 50 possibly pushing into the 60's in some places, before the cold air returns. So, in your backyard who comes out on top? Will the snowpack withstand the major torch or will it succumb to the warmest weather this winter? IMBY Prediction Current Snowpack: 15" Predicted Snowpack after Torch: 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I agree with this. I will have a trace amount on the ground. there will be nothing left im wondering how much i will have left ill probabyl lose about a foot at least Looks like we go back to a colder pattern starting next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Looks like we go back to a colder pattern starting next Sunday. All of the models now bring the front through Friday night, so Saturday should also be colder. 850s drop below -10C so we're talking some chilly air again. Tonight isn't so great for the snowpack, though...sitting at 41.1/29.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I know haha check out my sig. The temp is rising tonight, not falling. It was 41.2 at midnight now its 42.6 BTW do you think the colder pattern that sets in this weekend is the pattern change back to colder weather and is sustained or just a temporary drop like Tuesday is going to be? What's left of my snowpack doesnt seem to want to melt-- 50 days and counting with at least 1" snowcover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 BTW do you think the colder pattern that sets in this weekend is the pattern change back to colder weather and is sustained or just a temporary drop like Tuesday is going to be? What's left of my snowpack doesnt seem to want to melt-- 50 days and counting with at least 1" snowcover! I think the cold shot will be more sustained than Tuesday, but there will probably be a SW flow event/gradient storm after that which could change NYC over to rain. I would imagine we're done with temperatures in the 60s for a while after Friday, and we'll get at least 2 days with highs in the low-mid 30s over the weekend, but what happens beyond that is open to interpretation. Analogs suggest that a more permanent trough builds into the East for the first week of March, so that might be the best chance to get a coastal and sustained below normal readings. I wouldn't be surprised if we start out with a gradient pattern next weekend as the -NAO builds in, some snow-->rain events in late February, and then get into a snowier pattern in early March as the -PNA gradually fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think the cold shot will be more sustained than Tuesday, but there will probably be a SW flow event/gradient storm after that which could change NYC over to rain. I would imagine we're done with temperatures in the 60s for a while after Friday, and we'll get at least 2 days with highs in the low-mid 30s over the weekend, but what happens beyond that is open to interpretation. Analogs suggest that a more permanent trough builds into the East for the first week of March, so that might be the best chance to get a coastal and sustained below normal readings. I wouldn't be surprised if we start out with a gradient pattern next weekend as the -NAO builds in, some snow-->rain events in late February, and then get into a snowier pattern in early March as the -PNA gradually fades. Sounds somewhat like late Feb - early Mar 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Sounds somewhat like late Feb - early Mar 2009 Yes definitely, seeing some similarities there. I wasn't home for the March 2009 storm, was in Southern Chile where it was the midst of a summertime heat wave with temperatures in the 90s Felt weird after it was 32F and extremely blustery at JFK, landed at Santiago to summertime weather and fresh produce markets all over. The weather turned torrid a couple days into my trip though as +20C 850s made it all the way down towards Puerto Montt in Southern Chile, very unusual but not unheard of in a La Niña summer. We didn't get much of a cooldown until late March/early April, was a long stretch of above average temperatures in Chile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yes definitely, seeing some similarities there. I wasn't home for the March 2009 storm, was in Southern Chile where it was the midst of a summertime heat wave with temperatures in the 90s Felt weird after it was 32F and extremely blustery at JFK, landed at Santiago to summertime weather and fresh produce markets all over. The weather turned torrid a couple days into my trip though as +20C 850s made it all the way down towards Puerto Montt in Southern Chile, very unusual but not unheard of in a La Niña summer. We didn't get much of a cooldown until late March/early April, was a long stretch of above average temperatures in Chile. When did you leave to go to Chile? Was it in late Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 it will be interesting to see what happens later today. temps slowly rising overnight here. I knew the forecasts for lows in the upper 20s were suspicious, but we may not even fall much at all! currently at 40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 it will be interesting to see what happens later today. temps slowly rising overnight here. I knew the forecasts for lows in the upper 20s were suspicious, but we may not even fall much at all! currently at 40F With that kind of a launching pad, do you think 50 is within easy reach tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 When did you leave to go to Chile? Was it in late Feb? I left for Chile on February 20th and returned to the US on July 4th....I experienced the huge heat wave there in late February, and then the constant rains of winter on the Pacific coastline; we had plenty of weeks with over 5" rainfall and high winds, just a deluge from the incessant storms tracking through the Southern Ocean and hitting us with WAA precip. I think the coldest day had a high around 40F and a low in the upper 20s, but I wasn't there for the whole winter. We had several hard freezes but never got below the mid 20s in Valdivia, Chile around 39S. Most winter days were upper 40s with gray skies and rain, very morose climate during the cold season. Not too far from the High Andes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.