GL/MW/OV December 2010 disco thread

[Chicago WX]

What threats are people talking about? All i see is a moisture starved weakling followed by fantasy range.

A Kentucky snowstorm on the Euro? :shrugs:

[A-L-E-K]

Look at GGEM or Euro, not quite as moisture starved. GFS is on crack as usual.

A Kentucky snowstorm on the Euro? :shrugs:

I'll completely ignore the fantasy range bomb.

The weekend-ish event was once shown on the GFS which trended north and then lost it completely. I saw it called a clipper above, but it looks a little more Pac bowling ball to me and it digs pretty far south for a clipper given the time of year. Either way the GGEM shows a decent moisture return and WAA. Verbatim it's a cold rain to snow for me and if i had to guess, i think we see a trend north/weaker given climo and origin.

[Stebo]

I'll completely ignore the fantasy range bomb.

The weekend-ish event was once shown on the GFS which trended north and then lost it completely. I saw it called a clipper above, but it looks a little more Pac bowling ball to me and it digs pretty far south for a clipper given the time of year. Either way the GGEM shows a decent moisture return and WAA. Verbatim it's a cold rain to snow for me and if i had to guess, i think we see a trend north/weaker given climo and origin.

Alek your location's proximity to the lake will make anything a cold rain. As for the rest of us it could potentially be first appreciable snowfalls for many.

[A-L-E-K]

Alek your location's proximity to the lake will make anything a cold rain. As for the rest of us it could potentially be first appreciable snowfalls for many.

Lake temps are down to the mid/low 40s and should be low 40s / upper 30s by next weekend if the early week storm kicks up enough wind. So overall the lake isn't any warmer than usual, despite the summer highs. But yeah, if business aloft is just under 0 with winds off the lake, we're going to have rain.

I said earlier that I expect my first sticking snow around mid December and first real snow in January which fits well with many of the early winter calls and hyper local climo.

As for the storm in question, i see northward adjustments in the future.

[Stebo]

Lake temps are down to the mid/low 40s and should be low 40s / upper 30s by next weekend if the early week storm kicks up enough wind. So overall the lake isn't any warmer than usual, despite the summer highs.

I said earlier that I expect my first sticking snow around mid December and first real snow in January which fits well with many of the early winter calls and hyper local climo.

As for the storm in question, i see northward adjustments in the future.

I don't there isn't a ridge to the south, at least not one of great significance.

[michsnowfreak]

So lets see. Current Saturday scenarios for here...GEM a beautiful bullseye hit of accumulating snow, EURO we get grazed with accumulating snow (but a step in the right direction, well north of its 12z run), and the GFS no one gets anything lol!

[A-L-E-K]

So lets see. Current Saturday scenarios for here...GEM a beautiful bullseye hit of accumulating snow, EURO we get grazed with accumulating snow (but a step in the right direction, well north of its 12z run), and the GFS no one gets anything lol!

Pretty standard 100+ hr spread.

[A-L-E-K]

Looks like the GFS will be holding its ground and continues to dampen out the s/w through the western ridge.

[goknights]

Looks like a step in the right direction to me

[JoMo]

And we're back to boredom on the 12z GFS long range as the N stream squashes the storm and spins up a huge low in the Atlantic.

[Stebo]

I am almost half tempted to stop looking at the GFS, at this point it has 0 run to run consistency. Whatever they did to that model they should undo, at least before we knew it had specific biases, now it has 0 clue.

[Powerball]

I am almost half tempted to stop looking at the GFS, at this point it has 0 run to run consistency. Whatever they did to that model they should undo, at least before we knew it had specific biases, now it has 0 clue.

It's not jus the GFS.

All the models have been clueless since last spring.

[Stebo]

It's not jus the GFS.

All the models have been clueless since last spring.

I don't know about that, the model verifications would say the Euro and GGEM at least have some idea.

[cyclone77]

12z GEM looks pretty robust with the hybrid clipper Saturday. The 12z GFS indicates something similar as well, although not nearly as impressive. The GFS has left it completely off the maps though in previous runs. Remember, originally the GFS showed a pretty stout system moving through the Midwest this weekend several days ago.

If the latest GEM is correct, there should be a broad swath of accumulating snow impacting many of us.

[Chicago WX]

12z GEM looks pretty robust with the hybrid clipper Saturday. The 12z GFS indicates something similar as well, although not nearly as impressive. The GFS has left it completely off the maps though in previous runs. Remember, originally the GFS showed a pretty stout system moving through the Midwest this weekend several days ago.

If the latest GEM is correct, there should be a broad swath of accumulating snow impacting many of us.

Yeah 12z GGEM looks good for a couple of inches. Better eye candy than the GFS, that's for sure.

[Powerball]

I don't know about that, the model verifications would say the Euro and GGEM at least have some idea.

They've all had their ups & downs since last spring.

*EURO wasn't progressive enough with the SE ridge (GFS always ended up being correct in that aspect) in the summer and its handling of the November Appalachians rainmakers a couple weeks ago.

*GEM always wants to bomb out a storm.

*GFS' handling of this storm and the preivous storm.

[cyclone77]

12z GEM

[A-L-E-K]

12z GEM

Looks far enough south to give me the white stuff. We'll see what kind of solutions we see in a couple days.

[Chicago WX]

12z GEM

I like that little speck of ip north of STL.

[cyclone77]

I like that little speck of ip north of STL.

This run compared to the 00z GEM is a little weaker and further south, but the two runs are pretty similar. The new Euro could be interesting.

[JoMo]

Euro 1008 MB low Day 5, Central, Illinois.

[Stebo]

Euro 1008 MB low Day 5, Central, Illinois.

Can't complain with what I am seeing thus far.

[Moneyman]

Is it a good hit here, or is too far south? Just curious.

[cyclone77]

Is it a good hit here, or is too far south? Just curious.

Looks very similar to the 12z GEM, just a hundred miles or so north of that. Euro would favor your area more than the GEM.

[JoMo]

Can't complain with what I am seeing thus far.

It's really rather amazing how far apart the GFS/Euro are starting at Day 4.

I bet the mid-atlantic people are getting excited at the sight of Day 6.

[Stebo]

It's really rather amazing how far apart the GFS/Euro are starting at Day 4.

I bet the mid-atlantic people are getting excited at the sight of Day 6.

Yeah I would if I was them too...

[Moneyman]

I'll take a good 3-5 inch event just to get things started this winter. Maybe in the future it could get a bit more stronger. Who knows. Still 120+ hours out.

[A-L-E-K]

I'll take a good 3-5 inch event just to get things started this winter. Maybe in the future it could get a bit more stronger. Who knows. Still 120+ hours out.

Doesn't look like a 3-5 inch event, more like 1-3.

As for the Euro, i have a hard time putting a lot of stock in a D6 mid atl snow storm in early december with marginal model agreement during a Nina, it's not impossible but climo argues against it.

[Moneyman]

Just saw the euro maps, doesn't look that bad. Still wish it could be a tad stronger and maybe a tad farther north. Not bad though.

[BowMeHunter]

I'll take a good 3-5 inch event just to get things started this winter. Maybe in the future it could get a bit more stronger. Who knows. Still 120+ hours out.

Looks like maybe an inch or two.. Clippers always seemed starved here until they get east.. Nice hit for southern MI, NE Illanoy, N 1/3 of Indiana or lil south, and Ohio does well.. looks to be like .50-.75"

Pretty sick what that clippers becomes for SNE.. Seems they can fart into the wind out there and a bomb shows up.. I'd def love to live on the weenie hills out there with a little elevation like, Will.